Finald vs Sweden Prediction, Odds & How to Watch World Junior Semi-Final

• Finland and Sweden meet in the 2026 World Juniors semi-final with a spot in the gold medal game on the line
• Sweden enters with the tournament’s best goaltending while Finland’s penalty kill struggles create matchup problems
• See my Finland vs Sweden prediction for Sunday’s semi-final in Minnesota, plus odds and how to watch

The 2026 World Junior Championship semi-finals kick off Sunday afternoon with Finland and Sweden battling for a spot in Sunday’s gold medal game. Sweden comes in as heavy favorites after posting the tournament’s best goaltending numbers, while Finland’s been more efficient offensively despite generating fewer chances.

Both teams have won five straight to reach this point, but the numbers point to some clear advantages for the Swedes. Finland’s penalty kill has been leaky, and that could be a major problem when facing Sweden’s elite power play.

Puck drop is 4:30 PM ET from Minnesota. Here’s my Finland vs Sweden prediction for Sunday’s World Juniors semi-final, along with betting odds and how to watch.

Finland vs Sweden Prediction

My Finland vs Sweden prediction for Sunday’s semi-final is Sweden advancing to the gold medal game. The goaltending gap matters too much here. Sweden has posted a 91.67% save percentage through five games, best in the tournament, with a 2.20 goals against average. Finland’s sitting at 86.79% (6th) with a 2.77 GAA.

That might not sound like a huge difference, but in a tight playoff game, the team with better goaltending usually wins. Sweden’s netminders have faced 120 shots and allowed just 11 goals, going 5-0 between the pipes. Finland’s Petteri Rimpinen has started all five games with a .876 save percentage. Sweden’s getting better results despite facing more volume.

Sweden has the edge on special teams. Their power play is at 45%, converting 9 of 20 opportunities. Finland’s struggling at 26.67%, going 4-for-15. That’s nearly a 20% gap, and it gets worse when you look at Finland’s penalty kill sitting at just 66.67%.

Tournament Stats Comparison

Sweden’s generating way more offense with 187 shots on goal compared to Finland’s 150. They’ve scored 27 goals to Finland’s 23, led by Anton Frondell’s 5 goals in five games. Finland has balanced their attack better with four players tied for the team lead at 6 points, but Roope Vesterinen’s 4 goals on 9 shots (44.4% shooting) stand out.

Finland’s actually been more efficient at converting chances at 15.33% shooting versus 14.44%, but that efficiency doesn’t matter much when you’re facing the tournament’s best goalie. Lucas Pettersson has been clutch for Sweden with 4 goals including 2 game-winners.

Finland’s penalty problems make things worse. They’ve racked up 55 penalty minutes with a 5-minute major and a game misconduct mixed in. Sweden’s been cleaner with 48 PIMs and no major penalties. Every time Finland goes to the box, they’re facing a power play converting at 45%.

Finland vs Sweden Best Bet

• Pick: Sweden ML (-185 at DraftKings)

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I’m taking Sweden ML at -185. The goaltending edge is the biggest factor in playoff hockey, and Sweden’s got it. Rimpinen’s .876 save percentage won’t cut it against a Swedish team generating 37 shots per game. Add in Sweden’s power play against Finland’s weak penalty kill, and the path to victory is clear.

Finland needs perfect execution to win. They have to stay out of the box, convert on limited power play chances, and hope Rimpinen posts numbers well above what he’s shown all tournament. That’s asking for a lot. Sweden just needs to play their game.

I also like the under 5.5 goals at -142. Both teams have been solid defensively, and Sweden’s goaltending should keep this tight. Finland’s averaging 4.6 goals per game, Sweden’s at 5.4, but elimination games typically slow down. With strong goaltending on one side and disciplined play on both, I expect a lower-scoring game.

Finland vs Sweden Odds

Sweden at -185 on the moneyline carries an implied probability of 64.9% to win. You’d need to risk $185 to win $100, which returns $285 total on a winning bet. Finland at +150 has an implied probability of 40%, meaning a $100 bet would profit $150 for a total return of $250 if they pull the upset.

The puck line at -1.5 (+142) for Sweden means they need to win by 2 or more goals for the bet to cash. You’d profit $142 on a $100 bet. That’s tempting with the plus money, but semi-finals are usually tight.

The total at 5.5 leans under. Over 5.5 at +120 pays $120 profit on a $100 bet if six or more goals are scored. Under 5.5 at -142 requires risking $142 to win $100 if five or fewer goals are scored.

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World Juniors betting odds as of Jan. 4 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Bet on the WJC Semi-Final with a DraftKings promo code.

How to Watch Finland vs Sweden

Sunday’s World Juniors semi-final between Finland and Sweden starts at 4:30 PM ET from Minnesota. TSN will carry the broadcast in Canada, while NHL Network has coverage in the United States. The winner advances to Monday’s gold medal game.