Giro d’Italia Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 5 – Oct 7

• Stage 5 of the Giro (Wednesday, October 7) may provide an opportunity for breakaway riders
• The longest stage of the first two weeks has lots of hills and one large climb at the end
• Is a longshot viable to win on Wednesday? See odds, analysis, and best bets below

As expected, Tuesday in Sicily the Giro d’Italia had a sprint finish in Stage 4. Arnaud Demare emerged victorious after barely holding off Peter Sagan and Davide Ballerini.

Only minor shifts took place in the overall standings, but that could change on Wednesday, October 7th. A lengthy lumpy course with two category three climbs and one near the end is an opportunity for GC riders to gain time.

A successful breakaway is viable in Stage 5 too. Let’s look at the odds and see where there is value.

2020 Giro d’Italia Stage 5 Odds

Odds taken Oct. 6

Monday’s stage was a game changer. Simon Yates losing three minutes would normally be a headliner, but he was upstaged by Geraint Thomas crashing. Thomas was able to complete the stage but lost over 10 minutes and did not start on Tuesday.

With the pre-race favorite out because of a fractured pelvis, Tuesday went along in a more predictable fashion. The sprinters ruled the day and GC contenders mostly had it easy.

🔻 The last, uncertain km, Stage 4!

🔻 L'ultimo, combattutissimo, chilometro della Tappa 4!#Giro pic.twitter.com/BhXJoh71UB

— Giro d'Italia (@giroditalia) October 6, 2020

Joao Almeida now leads Jonathan Caicedo by two seconds in the overall standings. Pello Bilbao is in third place 39 ticks behind the leader. Wilco Kelderman is 44 seconds back. The only other two riders within a minute of the lead are Harm Vanhoucke (:55 back) and Vincenzo Nibali (:57).

There’s No Real Chalk

There are no real favorites in Stage 5 because the course does not set up for sprinters, and a breakaway is likely. Predicting who will emerge from a break is difficult.

It is possible GC contenders could be in the mix, but the other leaders won’t allow them to get too far in front. If a rider with realistic podium dreams is to win the stage, it will need to happen via attack.

Momentum To Build Off

Yates cannot win the race at this point without targeting stages where he can pick up time. Though the most likely stages are the serious mountains, they are backloaded. He could use some confidence and momentum to potentially close the gap.

He won three stages in the Giro in 2018 and has secured stage victories in each grand tour. If he drops time on Wednesday like he did Monday, we can assume he is no longer a contender. After four stages Yates is 3:48 behind Almeida.

With Thomas out and Yates in a dicey position, the opportunity for riders who were fringe contenders going into the Giro has opened up. Wilco Kelderman might be in the best position to seize the opportunity. He is in a great spot and has been knocking on the door.

Kelderman has not yet reached the podium of a grand tour. In 2017 he was fourth in the Vuelta a España, and two other times he was among the Top 10 in Madrid. He finished seventh in the Giro in 2014.

Catch Us If You Can

If you are betting on a breakaway surviving, this is more or less what Tony Gallopin does.

His two grand tour stage victories have come in hilly or mild mountain stages in breakaway fashion. He doesn’t win often, but this race profile fits him nicely.

Thomas De Gendt is a veteran who has won breakaway stages on more than one occasion.

He has stage victories at each grand tour and two years ago won the mountains classification at the Vuelta. This should suit him.

Opportunity For A Longshot

More so than most stages this is really anybody’s to win. Therefore taking a chance on a longshot isn’t crazy. Could Fausto Masnada be the guy? He certainly would have paid off nicely in the Giro’s sixth stage last year.

Masnada had a strong Giro last year. He finished second in the Kings of the Mountains competition and fourth in overall points. He is a good option as a longshot bet.