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Giro d’Italia Stage 12 Picks and Odds – Oct. 15th

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in News

Updated Mar 5, 2021 · 11:02 AM PST

Pink Jersey ceremony at the Giro d'Italia
Pink Jersey ceremony at the Giro d'Italia. (Photo by Lapresse/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)
  • Stage 12 of the Giro (Thursday, October 15) is full of intermediate climbs
  • Who will be the strongest rider through the undulating hills?
  • Are any longshots worth considering when betting on the Giro d’Italia Thursday?

Four very different stages remain before the Giro d’Italia’s second rest day on Monday. A hilly Stage 12 will be followed by a time trial, a flat stage, and then mountains.

Thursday features an elevation gain of around 3,800 metres, and the numerous ups and downs culminate with a gnarly uphill. It is perhaps a spot if you are in a breakaway where you’d try to ditch any travel companions as you seek the finish line first.

Who should benefit from Stage 12’s design? Let’s look at some of the top contenders and consider who presents betting value.

Giro d’Italia Stage 12 Odds

Rider Odds
Peter Sagan +650
Diego Ulissi +800
Thomas De Gendt +1400
Jhonathan Narvaez +1400
Ben Swift +1400
Jonathan Castroviejo +2000
Ruben Guerreiro +2000
Mikkel Bjerg +2500
Matteo Fabbro +2500
Joao Almeida +3300
Filippo Ganna +3300
Tao Geoghegan Hart +3300

Odds as of Oct. 14th at DraftKings.

Wednesday was the fourth flat stage of this year’s Giro, and for a fourth time Arnaud Démare sprinted to victory. He has been the unquestioned quickest man in this year’s race and outpaced Peter Sagan and Alvaro Jose Hodeg to take the victory.

On a relatively uneventful day, João Almeida retained the overall lead by 34 seconds over Wilco Kelderman. Almeida is 43 ticks ahead of Pello Bilbao.

Stage 12 has three category three climbs and two category four up and downs. The bumpy 204 kilometres route begins and ends in Cesenatico, on the Adriatic coast. There is a 10% gradient on the final climb, and that very well may be where the day is won and lost.

Let’s consider the most likely winners of Stage 12.

The Favorite

Sometimes the biggest difference between winning a stage and finishing second is perception. Sagan has been in the mix a ton at both this year’s Tour de France and the Giro. He finally earned a stage win this on Tuesday, becoming one of 100 cyclists to win one on each of the grand tours. He is the same rider who had been a “disappointment” up until stage 10. If we objectively look at the course on Thursday, a versatile rider like Sagan, who can go on a breakaway, is adept at climbing, and has sprint ability, should be in the mix.

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While perceptions of Sagan may have changed, he is still finishing second and third a lot more than winning this year. What are his legs like after his long solo win Tuesday, and near miss on Wednesday?

Top Contender

When Diego Ulissi won the second stage this year, it was his seventh individual victory on the Giro d’Italia. The veteran won the only hilly stage of this year’s event. It is not completely unlike this course.

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Ulissi has been near the front all year. He won the Tour de Luxembourg, and made the podium at the Tour Down Under, Gran Piemonte, and Giro dell’Emilia.


Filippo Ganna won the time trial which began this year’s Giro, and added Stage 5 to his trophy collection too.

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Ganna is probably best known for his work in time trials and on various tracks, but at the age of 24, he has shown an ability to do a variety of things. The price is right and the arrow is pointing up for Ganna.

Team Ineos, formerly known as Team Sky, has been a dominating force in cycling for the past decade. However, they had a disappointing Tour de France, and their Giro d’Italia favorite Geraint Thomas was injured early this year in Italy.

Without a legitimate GC contender, Ineos has targeted individual stages and had some success winning daily honors. Thursday, they may put resources behind Tao Geoghegan Hart.

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Hart is seeking his first grand tour stage win. Last year, he took two stages in the Tour of the Alps, and finished second overall.

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