2021 Charles Schwab Challenge Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The Charles Schwab Challenge tees off Thursday (May 27th) at Colonial Country Club, in Fort Worth, TX
• Charley Hoffman ranks third in this field in strokes gained approach over his past 24 rounds, and finished second in his last start in Texas
• Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

Fresh off a historic win for Phil Mickelson at the season’s second Major, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas on Thursday (May 27th) for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth was the site of the first official event following the COVID break last year, and while this year’s tournament doesn’t boast a field quite as strong as 2020, plenty of big names will still be teeing it up.

Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed and defending champion Daniel Berger are all part of the 121 man field, as is Charley Hoffman who does his best work in Texas.

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2021 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Odds as of  May 25th at FanDuel.

Hoffman’s Irons Are Hot Fire

Hoffman’s last start in the Lone Star state resulted in a runner-up finish at the Valero Texas Open, and he has four top-18 results at this tournament in his last nine appearances. Since his 2nd place finish at the Valero, he’s gone 18th, 18th and 17th last week at the PGA Championship, gaining a combined 12.6 strokes on approach.

Charley is entered in the Charles Schwab Challenge this week

He missed the cut here last year

Looking to make his 11th cut in in a row

Moved from #75 to #69 in the OWGR

30th in Fed Ex Cup

— Charley Hoffman Tracker (@charleytracker) May 25, 2021

He ranks third in this field over the past 24 rounds with his irons, and second in strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s gained at least 4.8 strokes with his ball striking in seven of his past eight events, and if that continues this week he’s going to be in contention.

Pick: Charley Hoffman to Win Outright (+4200)

Snedeker In Fine Form

Another Tour vet to keep your eye on this week is Brandt Snedeker. The 40-year-old is in the middle of his best stretch of golf since early 2020, racking up three top-17 finishes, including a 6th place and 17th place result in his two most recent starts in Texas.

Another day, another eagle hole-out for @BrandtSnedeker! 🦅 pic.twitter.com/cvXSzBUR89

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 3, 2021

Sneds gained 7.6 strokes on approach at the Valero, and has been positive with his irons in two of his past three events overall. He remains one of the game’s premier wedge players, which will certainly come in handy this week.  Five of the Par 4’s at Colonial measure under 410 yards, making 100-125 yards one of the key proximity ranges. Over the past 50 rounds, no one in this field is better from that distance than Snedeker.

Pick: Brandt Snedeker Top-10 Finish (+550)

Top-20 Value Picks

1. Joel Dahmen (+360): Dahmen has followed up his win in Punta Cana with an 18th place finish at Wells Fargo and a 55th place result last week at the PGA Championship. Last week’s result is incredibly misleading however, as he was buried by a cold putter. He lost 3.5 strokes with the flat stick and another 1.8 strokes around the greens. That poor short game performance overshadowed an immaculate ball striking week. Dahmen gained 5.5 strokes on approach and another 1.8 strokes off the tee. If he strikes it like that this week, a T-20 might be his floor.
2. Cameron Davis (+410): These odds are a slap in the face for a very talented young player. Davis has gained at least 2.1 strokes with his irons in back-to-back events, and leads the field over the past 50 rounds in Par 4 scoring on holes between 350-400 yards. An elite birdie maker, Davis ranks 15th in scoring over his past 50 rounds, ahead of two of the favorites this week, Morikawa and Abraham Ancer.
3. Vincent Whaley (+500): The biggest longshot on our card this week is Vincent Whaley. The 26-year-old has been a cut making machine this season, and has flashed enough upside to warrant a top-20 wager. He’s made the weekend in eight straight events and flirted with the first page of the leaderboard at the Byron Nelson for much of the week during his last start. He ranked seventh for the week in birdies with 23, and has gained at least 2.6 total strokes on the field over his past seven tournaments. He’s finished T-26 or better five times already this season, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts placing inside the top-20 on a consistent basis.