2021 Memorial Tournament Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The Memorial Tournament tees off Thursday (June 3rd) at Muirfield Village, in Dublin, OH
• Patrick Reed excels on tough courses, with a win at Torrey Pines, an 8th place finish at Augusta and a 6th place result at Quail Hollow over the past few months
• Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

The PGA Tour heads to Muirfield Village this week (Thursday, June 3rd) for one of the signature events of the season. The Memorial Tournament, hosted by golf legend Jack  Nicklaus, is annually one of the toughest tests on Tour, and the course has undergone some recent renovations to make the track play even tougher.

Muirfield Village now plays over 7,500 yards, and with nasty rough and small greens awaiting this year’s field, scores are likely going to resemble those at a Major Championship. One player who excels on tough tracks is Patrick Reed, and he’s the first target on our sleepers and longshots betting card.

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2021 Memorial Tournament Odds

Odds as of  May 31st at FanDuel and DraftKings.

Reed Relishes a Tough Test

If you look at Reed’s resume in 2021, you would think he only brings his A game to marquee events. He won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, finished 9th at the WGC at Congressional, 8th at the Masters, 6th at Wells Fargo, and 17th at the PGA Championship. He also showed up to less prestigious events like the AmEx, Valspar and Charles Schwab Challenge last week, and promptly missed the cut in each of those starts.

A slinging approach to two feet on No. 9 by past champion Patrick Reed. #themasters pic.twitter.com/lFTZ1eSe9H

— The Masters (@TheMasters) November 12, 2020

Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but when Reed wins, it tends to be at a prestigious tournament. In addition to his victory at Torrey Pines this year, he’s also won the Masters, two WGC’s, two FedEx Cup playoff events and the Tournament of Champions.

He’s owns one of the premier short games on Tour, which will be incredibly helpful this week due to Muirfield’s tiny greens, and he’s never missed the cut at this event. He finished 10th here last year, and 8th back in 2016.

Pick: Patrick Reed to Win Outright (+3500)

Lowry In Fine Form

One player who comes in with fantastic form is Shane Lowry. The former Open Champion is fresh off a 4th place finish at the PGA Championship, his third top-9 result in his past six starts. Lowry’s price varies greatly around the industry, so make sure to shop around. His outright odds are as short as +3500 or as long as +6000 depending on where you look.

Up and over the slopes. Shane Lowry chips in for birdie on hole No. 14. #themasters pic.twitter.com/ZYCnUqy5RB

— The Masters (@TheMasters) November 14, 2020

Lowry’s ball striking was immaculate at Kiawah Island, which continued his strong iron play as of late. He’s gained at least 1.3 strokes on approach in each of his past five measured events, and has gained strokes around the green in four of those five starts as well. His track record at Muirfield Village isn’t incredible, but he did muster a 15th place result in 2017, and is well suited to contend if the course plays as tough as it projects.

Shane Lowry Top-10 Finish (+350)

Top-20 Value Picks

1. Stewart Cink (+250): Stewart Cink is the middle of a career revival at age 48, and his odds simply don’t reflect how well he’s playing. He’s posted three top-20 finishes in his past five starts, including a win at the RBC Heritage. Cink’s gaining a bunch of strokes with irons and putter, which is always a recipe for success. He’s now gained at least 4.5 strokes on approach in four straight measured tournaments, while gaining at least 2.3 shots with the flat stick in three straight events.
2. Patton Kizzire (+400): Speaking of solid form, Patton Kizzire is fresh off back-to-back top-3 finishes in Texas, yet enters with outright odds of +14000. That’s worth a wager, as is his top-20 price tag. Kizzire has gained 12.9 strokes on approach over his past two starts, and 8.4 strokes on the greens. He racked up the second most birdies last week at Colonial (20), while ranking top-five in the field in strokes gained approach, tee-to-green, and putts per GIR. He owns six top-10 finishes already on tour this season, and a t-20 this week is well within his range of outcomes.
3. Kyle Stanley (+450): Last but not least is Kyle Stanley. A late entry into the field, and one that online sportsbooks have seemingly mispriced. Stanley led the field in strokes gained approach at the Charles Schwab Challenge en route to an 8th place finish, and has gained a combined 13.7 strokes with his irons in his last two starts. He missed the cut in his last appearance at this event, but prior to that he lost in a playoff in 2018, and finished 6th in 2017.