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2021 Wells Fargo Championship Odds and Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

May 3, 2021 · 7:31 AM PDT

Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy, of Northern Ireland during the second round of the Masters golf tournament on Friday, April 9, 2021, in Augusta, Ga. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
  • The Wells Fargo Championship from Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC tees off Thursday, May 6th
  • Four of the top-five in the world are competing, including +1000 tournament favorite Justin Thomas
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

Just two tournaments remain until the second major championship of the season commences at the PGA Championship from Kiawah Island, South Carolina. This week it’s the Wells Fargo Championship from famed Quail Hollow Club, which hosted its own PGA back in 2017 – won by Justin Thomas. This course will also be a preview for next year’s Presidents Cup.

Thomas and three others in the top five in the world rankings are teeing it up (Dustin Johnson opted not to play). JT is the +1000 favorite to earn his second victory of the season, having already taken the Players Championship. Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau are the next two favorites on the board.

The final three holes, dubbed ‘the green mile’ boasts one of the toughest finishing stretches on the PGA Tour, and it has sunk plenty of golfers chances in a watery grave. There was no tournament last year due to COVID-19, making Max Homa the defending champion.

2021 Wells Fargo Championship Odds

Golfers Odds at FanDuel
Jon Rahm +1000
Justin Thomas +1100
Bryson DeChambeau +1500
Rory McIlroy +1700
Viktor Hovland +1700
Xander Schauffele +1700
Webb Simpson +2100
Patrick Cantlay +2800
Patrick Reed +2900
Tony Finau +2900
Will Zalatoris +2900
Corey Conners +3100
Max Homa +3100
Joaquin Niemann +3300
Abraham Ancer +3600
Sungjae Im +3600
Brian Harman +4300
Cameron Tringale +4300
Shane Lowry +4300
Jason Day +4700

Odds as of May 5th

McIlroy Loves Quail Hollow

By his lofty standards, Rory McIlroy has been on something of a prolonged slump, having not won on the PGA Tour since the 2019 WGC-HSBC Champions. He’s also missed the cut in two of his last three starts at the Players Championship and the Masters.

However, the Ulsterman is a changed golfer when he steps on these grounds, the site of his very first tour victory in dramatic fashion way back in 2010. Two years after that, he lost in a playoff, then in 2015 set the tournament record, finishing at 21-under-par. With that said, he’s a strokes gained darling at this track.

McIlroy’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 20 Rounds at Wells Fargo

Total Tee-to-Green Ball Striking Off-the-Tee Approach Short Game Putting
1 1 1 1 4 18 35

Overall, in nine trips to this championship, McIlroy has made all but one cut, with seven top-10’s and a T-16. Before his recent speed bump, he had consecutive top-10’s at the WGC-Workday Championship and at Bay Hill, so it’s not like his game is so far off. With +1600 odds to win outright, you’re getting McIlroy at better odds than the top-three on the board.

Last Five Wells Fargo Championship Winners

Year Winner
2019 Max Homa (3 shot win)
2018 Jason Day (2 shot win)
2017 Brian Harman (1 shot win)*
2016 James Hahn (playoff over Roberto Castro)
2015 Rory McIlroy (7 shot win)

*Brian Harman won at a different golf course

2021 Wells Fargo Championship Best Value Picks

  1. Max Homa (+3400): Max Homa enters as the defending champion, having won in 2019, where he gained ten shots on the field on the greens. In his last eight starts, he’s been inside the top-25 six times, including four top-10’s. Most notable was his victory at the Genesis Invitational, and at last week’s Valspar Championship, entered the final round just a stroke behind before settling for a T-6 finish.
  2. Keegan Bradley (+5000): Keegan Bradley very nearly won his fifth title at the Valspar, where he ended up as the runner-up. That was his sixth straight solid tournament, where he’s had nothing worse than a T-30 in that span. Just two starts ago was T-4 at the Zurich Classic. Seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green this season.
  3. Aaron Wise (+12000): Deep dive with big potential upside. Cut from a similar cloth as last week’s winner Sam Burns, Aaron Wise has enjoyed success at this venue. In 2018, he was a runner-up to Jason Day, then the following year placed T-18. The 2018 AT&T Byron Nelson champion was second at this season’s Mayakoba Classic and he’s seventh in greens in regulation on the campaign.
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