2021 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Best Sleepers & Longshot Picks
- The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open tees off Thursday (October 7th) at TPC Summerlin, in Las Vegas, NV
- Hideki Matsuyama finished sixth in his first swing season start and is criminally underpriced at +3000 in the outright market
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot bets
Vegas baby, Vegas. The PGA Tour lands in Sin City this week (Thursday, October 4th) for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, and unlike past years, the 2021 field is stacked.
Fresh off the Ryder Cup, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Harris English and Paul Casey will all tee it up, as will the reigning Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama.
Speaking of Matsuyama, he’s criminally underpriced in the outright market this week, and is the first target on our sleepers and longshots betting card.
2021 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3000 | +230 | +100 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +4800 | +350 | +140 |
| Lucas Glover | +10000 | +900 | +400 |
| Henrik Norlander | +13000 | +1100 | +450 |
| Hank Lebioda | +20000 | +2000 | +800 |
Odds as of October 4th at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Matsuyama Money Last Time Out
Matsuyama is simply too talented for the books to hang a 30-1 number on, so pounce on it quickly before it disappears. The reigning Green Jacket holder was fantastic in his first swing start of the season at the Fortinet Championship, placing sixth while gaining 10.1 strokes tee-to-green.
A closer look at the swing of Hideki Matsuyama 🔬 pic.twitter.com/vIijL6GRhX
— GOLFTV (@GOLFTV) April 16, 2021
This tournament is routinely a birdie fest, which should suit Matsuyama just fine. Over the past 50 rounds, he ranks 12th in this field in birdie or better percentage, and sixth in approach shots within 15 feet of the hole.
The ball striking with him is consistently pure and he should be able to pick this course apart. Matsuyama ranks third in the field over the past 50 rounds in strokes gained tee-to-green, fourth on approach, and eighth in ball striking.
Hideki Matsuyama Strokes Gained Ranks – Last 50 Rounds
| T2G | BS | APP | ARG | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 129 |
Miss a green, no problem. His around the green play is world class and he’s gained 7 strokes on the field in that category alone over his past two starts. With Matsuyama, it all comes down to putting. If he can hover around field average he’s going to be on the first page of the leaderboard, and bentgrass greens, like they feature at TPC Summerlin, just happen to be his preferred putting surface.
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama to Win Outright (+3000)
Joaquin the Dream
Matsuyama isn’t the only clear misprice this week, as Joaquin Niemann’s odds jump off the page. Niemann, who is an elite scorer, excels at birdie fests, and this tournament is no exception. He’s finished 10th and 13th here in two of his three starts, gaining an impressive 13.4 strokes tee-to-green combined in those appearances.
The odds were in his favor! Joaquin Niemann with an ACE in Vegas 🎰 pic.twitter.com/dYfTmUQiH3
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) November 3, 2018
Like Matsuyama, bentgrass is his best putting surface, and in the previous bentgrass birdie fest he played, the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, he didn’t make a bogey until the 73rd hole en route to a T2 finish.
This will be his first start since the Tour Championship, but don’t let the lay-off dissuade you from backing him. The last time he took over a month off, he showed up to Hawaii and finished runner-up in both the Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open in back-to-back weeks.
Pick: Joaquin Niemann T-10 Finish (+350)
Top-20 Value Picks
- Lucas Glover (+400): If you are a course history truther, you have to be on Lucas Glover this week. He’s finished T9, T7, 3rd in his past three trips to this event, gaining at least 4 strokes ball striking each time. His swing season got off to a bit of a slow start last week at the Sanderson Farms with a 58th place result, but the ball striking was still on point. He gained 3 strokes on approach and could have finished much higher if not for losing 2.5 strokes on the greens.
- Henrik Norlander (+450): Speaking of strong approach play, Henrik Norlander’s irons were hot fire last week. The Swede gained 8.4 strokes on approach, to go along with 2.8 strokes gained around the green, and 2.1 strokes gained putting. He parlayed that into a 4th place finish at the Sanderson Farms, his second top-5 result in his past three starts.
- Hank Lebioda (+800): Maybe my favorite bet of the week is a T20 wager on Hank Lebioda. Just a few months ago he was hovering around 50-1 in the outright market, but since then his price has quadrupled. Three straight missed cuts will do that, but his game looked strong last week. He gained 3.9 strokes on approach and missed the cut on the number. In his past three bentgrass birdie fests, he finished 5th (Travelers), 4th (Rocket Mortgage), and 8th (John Deere).
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
