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2022 3M Open First-Round Leader Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Jul 19, 2022 · 7:05 PM PDT

J.T. Poston shakes hands with his caddie after a round
Jul 3, 2022; Silvis, Illinois, USA; J.T. Poston shakes the hand of his caddie Aaron Flener after winning the John Deere Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota tees off Thursday, July 21st
  • Tony Finau is the +2200 favorite over Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im to be atop the leaderboard after day one
  • See the best bets and odds to be the 3M Open first-round leader in the article below

The third-last regular-season event on the PGA Tour calendar heads to Minnesota for the fourth ever instalment of the 3M Open. The field isn’t particularly strong, with Tony Finau the favorite to snag the trophy over Sungjae Im. Finau, Im and Hideki Matsuyama are the only three golfers in the top-25 of the world rankings teeing it up.

With that being the case, there are plenty of opportunities for sleepers and longshots to make some noise at this event at TPC Twin Cities. The three previous champions made this their maiden (Matthew Wolff), second (Michael Thompson) and third (Cameron Champ) titles on the PGA Tour.

In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one, along with which players have been fast starters on Thursday’s this season.

2022 3M Open First-Round Leader Odds

Golfers Odds Tee Time
Tony Finau +2200 12:33pm
Hideki Matsuyama +2500 7:23am
Sungjae Im +2500 7:23am
Maverick McNealy +3000 7:56am
Adam Hadwin +3000 8:07am
Cameron Tringale +3000 12:22pm
Sahith Theegala +3500 7:12am
Joohyung Kim +3500 7:12am
Davis Riley +3500 12:33pm
Cam Davis +3500 12:55pm
Adam Long +3500 12:55pm
Chez Reavie +4000 12:44pm
Ryan Palmer +4500 7:34am
Brendon Todd +4500 7:45am
J.T. Poston +4500 12:55pm

Odds as of July 19th at DraftKings Sportsbook



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The forecast calls for it to be mainly sunny throughout the day. Temperatures will be at 70 degrees for those teeing it up first, approaching 80 degrees by noon and high 80’s for those completing their rounds in the early evening. Wind gusts will be pretty similar for all of Thursday between 14 and 20 miles per hour.

A benefit for those teeing it up in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.

Adam Long Playing Solid Golf

Adam Long (12:55pm tee time) has quietly been playing some strong golf lately, posting three straight top-25 finishes, including a T-13th in his last start at the John Deere Classic. In those last twelve rounds, Long ranks fifth in strokes gained: putting and short game, and ninth in total strokes gained.

Of those who are competing this week, Long has the sixth best opening round scoring average on the PGA Tour.

2021-22 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders

Golfer Average Score Odds
8. Wyndham Clark 68.88 +6500
10. Jonathan Byrd 68.93 +11000
12. Davis Riley 69.17 +3500
16. Patton Kizzire 69.25 +8000
29. Michael Gligic 69.50 +8000
32. Adam Long 69.54 +3500
35. Hideki Matsuyama 69.59 +2500
38. Sungjae Im 69.63 +2500
40. Jason Day 69.64 +6000
42. Dylan Wu 69.65 +13000

Long has also had success at this track, as he finished in solo second place in 2020, and then had a respectable T-25 last year. In those two events, he was first in SG: off-the-tee, and second in SG: total, tee-to-green, and ball striking.

Pick: Adam Long (+3500)

J.T. Poston First-Round Leader Twice in Last Three Events

J.T. Poston (12:55pm) has been a fixture atop the leaderboard following 18 holes in the last month. He first did it at the Travelers Championship, where he co-led with Rory McIlroy. That event wound up resulting in a tie for second.

Not to be outdone, he did the exact same thing the following week at the John Deere Classic, as he again shot 62 to grab the first round lead. That week, he ended up winning his second tour event in wire-to-wire fashion.

J.T. Poston’s Strokes Gained Ranks Last Twelve Rounds

Total Around-The-Green Tee-To-Green Short Game Ball Striking Approach Off-The-Tee Putting
1 1 2 3 4 7 27 29

Last year in his tournament debut at the 3M Open, Poston was T-28, where he had three rounds in the 60’s, with just one poor score dooming his chances of earning the title.

Though he cooled off with a missed cut at the Open Championship, it was a pair of 73’s, which isn’t anything to be overly concerned about. With his spectacular play of late, these odds are awfully enticing.

Pick: J.T. Poston (+4500)

Brice Garnett a Longshot Possibility

Before last week, Brice Garnett (8:18am) wouldn’t have been on the radar for the 3M Open, considering he’d just come off four straight missed cuts. However, he rebounded from a rut in his play to post a T-16 at the Barracuda Championship, indicating that his game might be turning a corner.

Though he hasn’t seriously contended for the title at this tournament in the three prior iterations, he’s been solid on each occasion, going T-23, T-26, T-16, picking up over a combined 17 shots tee-to-green for those events.

Garnett’s Strokes Gained Ranks In Twelve Rounds At TPC Twin Cities

Off-The-Tee Total Tee-To-Green Ball Striking Around-The-Green Approach
2 7 7 10 20 26

Clearly with the odds being +9000, the expectation is that he won’t wind up with the best opening round score. However, with his solid history around this track, he might just be an incredible longshot.

Pick: Brice Garnett (+9000)


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