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2022 PGA Tour American Express 4th Round Odds, Predictions and Preview

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Jan 22, 2022 · 6:00 PM PST

Patrick Cantlay hitting from the tee during the third round of the American Express golf tournament.
Patrick Cantlay hits from the third tee during the third round of the American Express golf tournament on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West Saturday, Jan. 22, 2022, in La Quinta, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
  • Lee Hodges and Paul Barjon co-lead the American Express after three rounds
  • Ten golfers are within three shots of the lead in a wide open event
  • See the updated odds below for Sunday’s final round within the story below

Through three rounds of the American Express, two unheralded golfers are tied for the lead at 18-under-par in Lee Hodges and Paul Barjon. They’re followed by Tom Hoge, who is just a stroke behind. All three players haven’t won on the PGA Tour. Should the leaders falter, there are big names behind them ready to pounce in Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay and Francesco Molinari.

To begin the week, Jon Rahm was the betting favorite to take the title at +500, with Cantlay the second favorite behind him. Through 54 holes, the fiery Spaniard is five strokes off the pace and Cantlay is four behind the leaders.

Read on to see the updated odds and the best bets heading into Sunday’s final round.

Updated 2022 The American Express Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds
Lee Hodges T-1st -18 +400
Paul Barjon T-1st -18 +450
Tom Hoge 3rd -17 +600
Seamus Power 4th -16 +600
Patrick Cantlay T-11th -14 +1200
Harold Varner III T-5th -15 +1600
Lanto Griffin T-5th -15 +1800
Hudson Swafford T-5th -15 +2000
Will Zalatoris T-11th -14 +2000
Francesco Molinari T-5th -15 +2200

Odds as of January 22nd at DraftKings.


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Rahm Lurking Behind The Leaders

With apologies to the co-leaders, bigger names like Rahm and Cantlay are certainly to be feared, even if they are so far behind top spot. Rahm has won this tournament (2018), while Cantlay finished second last year. In his last start, Rahm was phenomenal at the Sentry Tournament of Champions en route to a runner-up result.

On Saturday, Rahm had several lipped out putts that clearly had him fired up, but they were solidly struck. Last season, he was sixth in final round scoring average, and the world number #1 clearly has the firepower to make a big Sunday charge. In four of his six career PGA Tour victories, he’s shot 67 or lower on the final day. His odds of +1800 are still very much palpable.

The two co-leaders have never held a 54 hole lead in their respective careers, so it’s incredibly difficult to pull the trigger on betting them at such low +400 and +450 odds. In particular, with the course yielding tons of birdies, a player well back in the field is in perfect position to win the championship.

2022 The American Express Best Live Value Picks

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+1200): Last year, Patrick Cantlay nearly stole this tournament from Si Woo Kim when he shot an amazing 11-under, 61 on the final day. He’s just four shots adrift of the leaders, and he’s no stranger in going low on Sundays, where he was eighth in final round scoring average last season. This week, he’s shot a 10-under, 62, so he’s clearly in solid form. Last event, Cantlay was fourth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
  2. Will Zalatoris (+2000): At the start of the week, we were all over Will Zalatoris because of his tempting +5000 odds, and he’s still sporting solid odds at +2000. He’s currently just four back of the lead, and he’s already had a scintillating round this week of 11-under, 61 (albeit at a different course).
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