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2022 PGA Tour American Express Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Jan 18, 2022 · 6:00 AM PST

Abraham Ancer admires an approach shot
Abraham Ancer, of Mexico, plays his shot from the 11th tee during the first round of the Sony Open golf tournament, Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022, at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. (AP Photo/Matt York)
  • The 2022 American Express from PGA West in Palm Springs, California tees off Thursday, January 20th
  • Abraham Ancer has back-to-back top-five finishes at this event
  • Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

The PGA Tour moves from one sunny paradise to another this week. After a couple weeks in Hawaii, golfers will tee it up at PGA West in Palm Springs, California starting Thursday (Jan. 20th), for the 2022 American Express.

This week marks the return of World No. 1 Jon Rahm, fresh off a runner-up finish at the Tournament of Champions, while World No. 4 Patrick Cantlay is also in the field. With so much win equity up top, it’s going to take an exceptional four days from anyone else if they want to bring home the trophy.

One of those players poised to make a run at the title is Abraham Ancer. He’s come extremely close here in the past, and is the first target on our sleepers and longshots betting card.

2022 American Express Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Abraham Ancer +2900 +350 +170
Adam Hadwin +7500 +550 +275
Michael Thompson +9000 +550 +330
Russell Knox +10000 +600 +350
Adam Svensson +15000 +1000 +450

Odds as of Jan. 17th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

11 of the last 12 winners of this event played in at least one of the two early season Hawaii tournaments, while eight of the past nine champions have played this event at least once before.

Abraham Ancer Betting Analysis

Ancer knocked the rust off in Hawaii, playing both the TOC and the Sony Open. He’s four-for-four here in made cuts, with an 18th place, 5th place, and runner-up finish over the past three years.

His odds vary greatly depending on where you place your wager, so make sure to shop around. He’s listed as short as +2500 Barstool Sportsbook, but can be had at a more favorable +2900 price tag at another.

Ancer didn’t set the world on fire in Hawaii, but we can chalk that up to not having played on Tour in over two months. Looking at his long term form, he’s one of the standout players in the field.

Over the past 50 rounds, he ranks sixth in the field in strokes gained putting, 11th in ball striking, and 12th in scoring.

Strokes Gained Data Ranks at Pete Dye Courses – Last 50 Rounds

Abraham Ancer 2nd 1st 3rd 4th

The American Express features a three-course rotation, with two of the rounds, including the final one, coming on the PGA West Stadium Course. That of course is a Pete Dye design, and over the past 50 founds on Pete Dye tracks, Ancer ranks first in the field in strokes gained off the tee, second in strokes gained tee-to-green, third in ball striking, and fourth in scoring.

Pick: Abraham Ancer to Win Outright (+2900)

Adam Hadwin Betting Analysis

No player has come closer to winning more ofter at this event, without actually doing so than Adam Hadwin. From 2017-2019, he finished runner-up, T3, runner up, and famously shot 59 at La Quinta Country Club, the only track in the three course rotation at PGA West that doesn’t have cameras.

A camera person rushed over to film his final two holes, capturing Hadwin’s bid to become the first player on Tour in 18 years to break 60 on a par-72 course.

Hadwin is a fun sweat because he’s extremely boom or bust. He’s either in contention or he misses the cut, he doesn’t waste anyone’s time with a bunch of middling results. Over his past 16 made cuts, he has six T20’s, including five T10’s.

Pick: Adam Hadwin Top-10 (+550)

Top-20 Value Picks

  1. Michael Thompson (+330): The two-time winner on Tour was razor sharp last week at the Sony Open, gaining 7.2 strokes tee-to-green, including 6.5 on approach. He’s made six straight cuts overall, and owns a 5th and a 9th place finish here over the past three years.
  2. Russell Knox (+350): He flashed a complete game last week at the Sony Open gaining in every key strokes gained metric en route to a 7th place finish. He ranks sixth in ball striking over the past 12 rounds, and has made the cut in four straight appearances.
  3. Adam Svensson (+450): Started out 2022 with a bang last week at the Sony Open with a top-7 finish. He gained 6.1 strokes on approach, and another 3.8 shots on the green. He’s made one career start at this event, which he parlayed into an 18th place result.
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