3M Open Picks & Best Bets Including a +8000 Longshot

• The 3M Open tees off Thursday, July 24th, from TPC Twin Cities
• Lee Hodges holds the 72-hole tournament record at -24 and enters in great form
• See my 3M Open picks and best bets, below

When it comes to golf, if you like birdies and blow ups, then TPC Twin Cities is for you. The host track of this week’s 3M Open is synonymous with scoring at both ends of the extreme, with low rounds available as long as you avoid the 27 water hazards on property.

The setup puts a premium on ball striking and my 3M Open picks target pure flushers, as well as one snake-bit player, in a variety of different markets.

3M Open Picks

No golf betting card is complete without an outright selection. This tournament lacks top-end talent, meaning we can comfortably target longshots with high ceilings. Lee Hodges fits that category, and is my first 3M Open best bet at +8000. Kevin Roy in the T-20 market at +370 is up next, and I’ll round out my 3M Open picks with Erik van Rooyen to miss the cut at +110.

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3M Open Best Bet #1: Lee Hodges Claims to Win

• Lee Hodges to Win (+8000)

In the six years the 3M Open has been contested at TPC Twin Cities, the average winning score has been -19. Hodges claimed victory here in 2023, setting the 72-hole record by finishing 24-under par.

Since then, he’s failed to finish inside the top-4 at a PGA Tour event, but I’m betting this is the week that changes. Hodges enters in immaculate ball striking form. He’s gained at least 3.4 strokes ball striking in each of his last four measured events, including 8 strokes on approach alone at the John Deere earlier this month.

Hodges has gained 8+ strokes with his irons only two other times during this PGA Tour career, and both instances came at the 3M Open.

The only question mark in his game is his putter, but he’s proven that when it’s on, it’s lethal. Hodges has gained 4+ strokes with the flat stick four times this season, and was +6.2 strokes on these greens back in 2023.

If his putter heats up this week his ball striking will put him in position to make another run at the title. I’m running, not walking to the window to grab an 80-1 outright ticket.

3M Open Picks #2: Kevin Roy T-20 Finish

• Kevin Roy Top-20 Finish (+320)

Onto Roy now, who’s sneakily playing some incredible golf. Over the last 24 rounds, only Hodges has gained more strokes on approach than Roy, while he also ranks top-four in total strokes gained and the tee-to-green metric.

Kevin Roy Strokes Gained Ranks – Last 24 Rounds

He’s parlayed that into back-to-back top-10 results, with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts. Dating back to the start of 2025, Roy has racked up eight top-20’s in 14 starts, and has been positive in strokes gained tee-to-green, off-the-tee, approach, and putting in five consecutive tournaments.

I’m betting on another top-20 showing this week at very favorable odds, and I’ll also take a slice of his outright number at +9000.

3M Open Best Bets #3: Erik van Rooyen to Miss the Cut

• Erik van Rooyen to Miss Cut (+110)

Last, but not least, let’s fade the former Minnesota Golden Gopher van Rooyen. The South African may have played his collegiate golf in Minnesota, but he’s been allergic to success at this event during his career.

In four appearances at TPC Twin Cities, van Rooyen has made the cut just once. He’s fired more rounds over par (5) than under par (4) at this event, and made nearly as many double-bogeys (3) as birdies (4) during his trunk slam a year ago.

The icing on the cake for this 3M Open pick is van Rooyen is currently in miserable form. He’s missed four of his last six cuts on Tour, and ranks outside the top-80 in the field over the past 24 rounds in strokes gained approach and putting.