AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds to Make the Cut
- The odds to make the cut and miss the cut are live for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Is there a favorite in danger of missing the cut? How many off the radar players will reach the weekend?
- Don’t miss the Pebble Beach Pro-Am make and miss the cut odds for the top players in the field below
You have to feel for the organizers of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The tournament, which is contested at one of golf’s signature venues, falls on one of the worst weekends on the schedule.
The week prior at Torrey Pines always draws a loaded field, while the two following weeks are two of the year’s biggest events. The purse next week in Phoenix is $11 million more than at Pebble Beach, and the same goes for Tiger’s tournament at Riviera the following week.
As a result, the majority of the top end golfers end up skipping this week to focus on bigger pay days. An underwhelming field makes us dive deep when searching for candidates to make and miss the cut, but fortunately some intriguing targets have emerged to help fill out our card.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am Make the Cut Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Make the Cut | Odds to Miss the Cut |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1600 | +650 |
| Viktor Hovland | -1100 | +500 |
| Maverick McNealy | -900 | +450 |
| Jordan Spieth | -900 | +450 |
| Andrew Putnam | -600 | +350 |
| Tom Hoge | -500 | +300 |
| Seamus Power | -425 | +275 |
| Justin Rose | -425 | +275 |
| Keith Mitchell | -350 | +225 |
| Denny McCarthy | -350 | +225 |
| Matt Kuchar | -280 | +190 |
| Alex Smalley | -280 | +190 |
| Scott Stallings | -250 | +175 |
| Trey Mullinax | -245 | +170 |
| Taylor Moore | -245 | +170 |
| David Lipsky | -215 | +150 |
| Ben Griffin | -215 | +150 |
| Matthew NeSmith | -215 | +150 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -215 | +150 |
| Nick Taylor | -215 | +150 |
| Brendon Todd | -215 | +150 |
| Will Gordon | -195 | +140 |
| Nick Hardy | -175 | +125 |
| Russell Knox | -175 | +125 |
| Beau Hossler | -175 | +125 |
Odds as of January 31 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo to bet on the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
World number 10 and tournament favorite Matt Fitzpatrick has the shortest odds to make the cut at -1600. That number may seem low given the previous two weeks, when Jon Rahm was -5000 to play all four rounds.
Fitzpatrick offers juicy +650 odds to miss the cut, and while that pay day would be sweet if it hit, we’re going to target a different player to trunk slam at Pebble Beach.
Pendrith a Trunk-Slam Candidate
That would be Taylor Pendrith, who’s off to a slow start in 2023. Pendrith has started the new year by trunk slamming at the American Express, then finished 60th last week at the Farmers. His ball striking is a major concern after dropping 4.2 and 2.2 strokes to the field over his last two events, and his game doesn’t set up well for this tournament.
Taylor Pendrith Strokes Gained Data Ranks – Last 12 Rounds
| T2G | BS | OTT | APP | ARG | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 69 | 20 | 119 | 126 | 41 |
Approach play and short par-4 scoring are paramount for success here, as is around the green play. Over the past 12 rounds, Pendrith ranks 119th in strokes gained approach, 119th in par 4 scoring on holes between 350-400 yards, and 126th in strokes gained around the green.
Pick: Taylor Pendrith to Miss the Cut (+150)
Make the Cut Parlay
While we’re down on Pendrith’s prospects of playing all four rounds, there are plenty of golfers we want to target to make it through the cutline while still being price sensitive.
At the top of that list, is Tom Hoge. The defending champ also finished 12th here in 2021 and is the first target for our make the cut parlay. Hoge leads the field in strokes gained approach over the past 12 rounds. He also ranks inside the top-20 in proximity from 100-125 yards and 125-150 yards, which correlates well with short par-4 scoring.
2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am champion Tom Hoge and Monterey Peninsula Foundation Chairman of the Board Clint Eastwood pic.twitter.com/D9OLFppw6G
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) February 7, 2022
Next up, is Seamus Power. He finished the 2022 calendar year with three straight top-five finishes, including a victory in Bermuda. He was T9 here last year, and ranks top-24 in both key wedge proximity ranges and strokes gained around the green.
Let’s pair them with Alex Smalley, who ranks fourth in strokes gained approach over the past 12 rounds, and first in par-4 scoring on holes ranging from 350-400 yards. David Lipsky is our next leg, fresh off a fourth place finish at the Sony Open. Lipsky is a short game wizard ranking first in around the green play over the last 12 rounds, and also eighth in strokes gained approach.
What. A. Shot.@David_Lipsky is now tied for the lead after an incredible fairway bunker escape @SonyOpenHawaii 👏 pic.twitter.com/aaXxBM5O5R
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 15, 2023
As for our anchor leg, let’s go with Ben Griffin. The rookie has made nine straight cuts, racking up three straight top-32 finishes to start 2023. He ranks 27th in iron play over his last 12 rounds, and has been positive in virtually every key strokes-gained metric for five straight tournaments.
Add it all up and we’re looking at a +332 pay day if all five of our golfers can survive the cut line.
Pick: Make the Cut Parlay (+332)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
