Best Longshot Picks for Valero Open – Who Can Handle Narrow Fairways, Wind at TPC San Antonio?

Published: April 1, 2026 at 12:00 pm EDT

Mar 27, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Matt Kuchar hits a tee shot on the first hole during the second round of the Texas Children's Houston Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Valero Texas Open tees off Thursday, April 2nd with Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg favorites to win outright
With a weaker field, there’s plenty of opportunities for longshots to win in the final tune-up before the Masters
See the 2026 Valero Texas Open best longshot picks below

The final opportunity for anyone not currently qualified for the Masters to punch their ticket to Augusta National is at the Valero Texas Open. This TPC San Antonio course can be very difficult if the winds blow, with last year’s champion Brian Harman winning by three strokes at -9. He entered that week +9000 to emerge victorious, proving that longshots can thrive at this tournament.

With Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg co-favorites to claim the trophy at +1500, there’s no obvious massive favorite to declare beforehand, so it’s a totally wide open field in San Antonio.

Keep reading for Valero Texas Open best longshot picks for 2026, plus my reasoning behind each selection.

2026 Valero Texas Open Best Longshot Picks

Bet	Odds (Sportsbook)
Marco Penge to Win	+6000 (bet365)
Andrew Novak to Win	+10000 (FanDuel)
Matt Kuchar to Win	+17000 (DraftKings)

I’m starting The Valero Texas Open best longshots betting card with an Englishmen who is no stranger to winning on the DP World Tour in Marco Penge. I’m also targeting Andrew Novak, who was in the final group on Sunday in last year’s Valero Texas Open, and veteran Matt Kuchar to be the latest 40-something to claim a title on the circuit.

Odds as of April 1 at 9:23am. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on the Valero Texas Open.

Valero Texas Open Longshot Pick #1: Marco Penge to Win

Marco Penge to Win (+6000 at bet365)

Marco Penge has been a stalwart on the DP World Tour, claiming three trophies in 2025. He very nearly picked off his first PGA Tour title at the Genesis Scottish Open a year ago, ending up as the runner-up to Chris Gotterup.

Penge had his first brush with a potential maiden victory stateside just a few weeks ago, winding up in a tie for fourth at the Valspar Championship. That week, the Englishmen ranked first in driving distance, third in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and fourth in putts per green in regulation.

🚨🏆🔥 #WINNER — Marco Penge has won the Spanish Open to capture his 3rd DP World Tour win of the season. The victory secures his place in The Masters & The Open Championship next year. pic.twitter.com/9Cp7JfOgmP
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) October 12, 2025

For the campaign, Penge is tops in SG: off-the-tee, which will be critical for success at the Valero Texas Open. With him being fairly unknown on the main circuit, bettors will likely be sleeping on him, allowing his number (+6000) to drift out longer than it should be.

Valero Texas Open Longshot Pick #2: Andrew Novak to Win

Andrew Novak to Win (+10000 at FanDuel)

Another golfer I’m bullish on that has huge value in not only the winner market but also placements, is Andrew Novak. He’s been struggling with is game since a T-7th at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, which is why his number is as long as it is. However, he’s very comfortable at this venue.

In 2023, Novak had a very respectable ninth place result at TPC San Antonio, then last year, was in the final group on Sunday, before winding up in a tie for third. Golf can be a fickle game, where a player can seemingly be lost, then suddenly find their game overnight. He’s sixth in total strokes gained in the last twelve rounds at this course, where he can regain his form.

Valero Texas Open Longshot Pick #3: Matt Kuchar to Win

Matt Kuchar to Win (+17000 at DraftKings)

Last but not least, is Matt Kuchar, who won his last of nine titles way back in 2019. Another 40-something in Gary Woodland snapped that same skid as well, who won the Texas Children’s Houston Open for his first PGA Tour triumph since 2019 just last weekend.

Matt Kuchar’s Strokes Gained Ranks – Last 24 Rounds at TPC San Antonio

Stat	Rank
Total SG	2nd
SG: Approach	2nd
SG: Short Game	5th
SG: Putting	6th
SG: Ball Striking	10th

He’s a horse for this course, and has done everything but win at this venue. In the last 13 iterations, he’s posted top-15’s on seven occasions, including three top-5’s. Those include a T-4th in 2014, T-2nd in 2022 and T-3rd in 2023.

At 47 years of age, Kuchar is getting long in the tooth and has had a rough go of it in 2026. However, at these astronomical +17000 odds, it’s worth a sprinkle. You can also snag him at +3000 (top 5), +1400 (top 10), and +600 (top 20) on FanDuel.

Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 20 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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