BMW Championship Prediction, Picks and Odds

• The BMW Championship tees off Thursday, August 14th, from Caves Valley Golf Club, in Owings Mills, Maryland
• Scottie Scheffler is the +220 favorite, but Viktor Hovland is a strong value to win at +3500
• Keep reading for my 2025 BMW Championship predictions and picks, along with the odds below

After a thrilling Justin Rose victory to kick off the FedExCup Playoffs, the PGA Tour heads back to Caves Valley in Maryland for the BMW Championship. The field has been trimmed to the top-50 players in the standings, meaning we’ve bid farewell to the likes of Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, and Wyndham Clark among others.

This course last hosted the BMW Championship in 2021, producing a Patrick Cantlay victory at an absurd 27-under par. It’s hard to imagine players going that low again this week, but this is not a difficult track and prolific scorers will be featured in my BMW Championship picks.

BMW Championship Odds 2025

Scottie Scheffler opened as the commanding +220 favorite, followed by Rory McIlroy at +650, who should be well rested after skipping this past week. Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood command the third shortest odds at +2000, but I’m skipping this range and targeting Viktor Hovland to win as my favorite BMW Championship prediction.

Odds as of 8:32pm ET on August 10th at DraftKings. If you happen to be in Missouri, online sports betting is set to launch before the end of the year. Keep up with the latest Missouri sports betting apps to know all the details, including launch date and signup promos!

Last 5 BMW Championship Winners

Hovland claimed victory at this event back in 2023 when it was contested at Olympia Fields en route to winning the FedExCup title.

BMW Championship Prediction

It’s been an up and down season for Hovland, but he still checks the boxes for what I’m looking for this week. Hovland is an elite driver of the golf ball, can get scorching hot with the putter, and is arguably the best iron player on the planet.

The Norwegian has gained 15+ total strokes on approach over his last four measured tournaments. He ranks top-5 in this field in iron play and strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds, and top-20 in driving distance and birdie looks inside 15-feet.

Hovland has won two playoff events in his short PGA Tour career, while also posting a runner-up result. He notched 16 birdies over the final three rounds of last week’s event, and if not for a horrific back-9 on Thursday, Hovland would have been in contention for his third playoff victory. I’m betting he carries his form from the last three days over to Maryland, and outlasts this loaded field.

BMW Championship 2025 Picks

1. Ben Griffin (+4500): There aren’t too many players on the planet not named Scottie Scheffler with better all around statistics than Ben Griffin over the last three months. Griffin has finished T-14 or better in eight of his past 10 starts, and ranks top-16 in strokes gained off-the-tee, approach, putting and tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds. At +4500, in a shortened field, that statistical profile will get my money.
2. Kurt Kitayama (+7000): Caves Valley plays over 7,500 yards which means long hitters will certainly have an advantage. That’s my cue to fire up Kurt Kitayama, who posted a 9th place result in the first playoff event after winning two weeks ago in Minnesota. Kitayama has gained at least 3.5 strokes ball striking in four straight tournaments, and ranks third in strokes gained approach and tee-to-green, and fifth in driving distance over the last 24 rounds.