First Round Leader Odds and Picks at 2021 PGA Tour Championship

• The Tour Championship from Atlanta, GA starts Thursday, September 2nd
• Patrick Cantlay is the +110 favorite over Bryson DeChambeau to lead after the first round
• See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article below 

The final leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs is set to tee off at the Tour Championship with the $15 million dollar prize on the line. Only the top-30 golfers on the points list are competing, and they’re starting at staggered scores based on their position in the standings through the BMW Championship. Patrick Cantlay begins with a two shot edge on Tony Finau, and he’s three up on Bryson DeChambeau.

Before looking at some of these odds and immediately being excited, keep the starting strokes advantage in the back of your mind. For example, a player like Xander Schauffele – who has dominated this track – sits at +13000 only because he’s a whopping eight behind.

In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one, along with what players are playing well on Thursday’s this season.

Tour Championship 2021 First Round Leader Odds

Odds as of August 31st at DraftKings

With there being a limited field, tee times range from 11:40am until 2pm. It will be sunny the entire day, with temperatures ranging from 75 degrees to as high as mid 80’s by early evening. There’s no chance of rain and wind gusts will be steady around 10 miles per hour.

Usually a benefit for those teeing it up first is less bumpy greens with no players chewing them up compared to later in the day. Of course, the obvious downside is those starting first are a full ten strokes back of leader Cantlay, negating their advantage.

2021 Tour Championship Starting Positions

Jon Rahm Firing on All Cylinders

Considering the gap in scoring, there aren’t a lot of realistic options to grab the first round lead. Jon Rahm does carry some value with him starting four shots back. In his last two opening rounds, the Spaniard has fired rounds of 63 and 64 to grab a share of the lead in both instances.

In his last five tournaments, Rahm has placed inside the top-10 with a victory and a pair of third place showings. That also doesn’t take into account his surefire triumph at the Memorial before he had to withdraw due to COVID-19. Five of his last seven Thursday’s have been in the 60’s, with the worst score being a 72. That’s led him to be second on the scoring average list for the campaign.

2020-21 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders

In his last 16 rounds at East Lake, he’s fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ball striking, and sixth in total strokes gained. Though he starts four strokes back, Rahm has the firepower to quickly erase that deficit to grab his third straight first round advantage.

• Pick: Jon Rahm (+600)

Cameron Smith Clicking

With there being so few options to choose, why not select the golfer that’s doing even better than Rahm in opening rounds? Cameron Smith very nearly won two starts ago at the Northern Trust, when he dropped a playoff, which was his third straight top-10 result. He was good-not-great, at the BMW Championship last week, so he sees himself five adrift of Cantlay.

He’s been playing extremely good golf, however, with five of his last six Thursday’s resulting in a sub-70 score.

Cameron Smith’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 12 Rounds

Smith is second in birdie average for the season, something that will be much needed for him to close the gap on day one. He was second in SG: approaching the green two starts ago, gaining over eight shots. He was also third tee-to-green, picking up over ten strokes. He’s a bit of a long shot but has the ability to soar up the leaderboard.

• Pick: Cameron Smith (+2500)