First-Round Leader Picks & Predictions at THE PLAYERS

• The Players Championship tees off Thursday, March 12th from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
• Scottie Scheffler is the +1500 favorite to lead after 18 holes over Rory McIlroy
• Read below for five picks of mine to be leader after day one of the Players Championship

The PGA Tour’s crown jewel is upon us, with the oft nicknamed “fifth major” contested at the diabolical and famed TPC Sawgrass course. The Players Championship will test the mettle of the PGA Tour’s best, with Rory McIlroy defending his title, should he play through a back ailment that forced him to withdraw at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The two previous years, Scottie Scheffler became the first ever golfer to go back-to-back at this prestigious tournament. He’s the overwhelming favorite in the Players Championship odds to take home the title a third time.

Instead of waiting until Sunday to potentially collect our earnings, this article will explore bets that can be made that will settle at the conclusion of the first round, searching to find who will be the first-round leader after 18 holes.

2026 Players Championship First-Round Leader Odds

The weather will be in the high 60’s in the morning, reaching the low 80’s in the afternoon, with showers intermittently falling through Thursday. The wind gusts will be much more prevalent in the afternoon, blowing between 20 and 25 MPH, compared to 10-12 MPH in the morning. Keep that in mind when selecting not only first round leader picks, but also outright winner selections to see if they are gaining or losing an edge in the morning/afternoon wave.

Keep in mind, if you’re inclined to wager on a FRL selection on a player in the afternoon, patience can be a virtue. Invariably someone will go super low in the AM, perhaps rendering most of the PM players obsolete in terms of winning a first round leader wager.

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Players Championship First-Round Leader Picks 2026

• Jake Knapp +5400
• Chris Gotterup +5700
• Ricky Castillo +7600
• Tom Hoge +13000
• Jhonattan Vegas +17500

In recent years, first round leaders at the Players Championship have been a mixed bag of stars and also unheralded competitors (2022 Tom Hoge, 2023 Chad Ramey come to mind). Given that wagering on FRL is a dart throw, I’m searching for value on some players who are just getting established. First off is Jake Knapp (9:16am, +5400). In the last 24 rounds, he’s second in strokes gained: off-the-tee, which will be huge in allowing him opportunities to attack flags.

He’s been nothing short of dialed in to begin 2026, posting five consecutive finishes that are eleventh or better. He’s also tied for third in scoring on Thursday’s (67.60), with three rounds of 66, and was T-12th here a year ago.

Next I have my sights set on Chris Gotterup (1:54pm, +5700), who has lifted two trophies this year, at the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open. He’s tops in first round scoring average on the campaign (66.33), with two opening rounds of 63 and also a 64. Playing in the afternoon is a bit of a hindrance, thus why his odds are longer than they would be, had he teed it up in the AM.

Then I’ll pivot to Ricky Castillo (8:28am, +7600). He’s fresh off his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open, and the tourney before that, he was solo fifth at the Cognizant Classic. He’s also a faster starter, ranking seventh in opening days (67.80), with all five opening rounds in the 60’s in 2026.

2026 PGA Tour First-Round Scoring Average Leaders

Longshots Who Could Lead 2026 Players Championship After 18 Holes

I’m going big game hunting with my final two selections. Tom Hoge (12:30 pm, +13000), may not be a household name (one time PGA Tour winner), but in the last three years, he’s picked off a pair of third place showings at Sawgrass. In that span, Hoge is first in SG: approach and fourth in total strokes gained. He’s not been firing on all cylinders lately, but randomly pops up on leaderboards. He was the 2022 co-leader at Sawgrass after day one.

Finally, even further down the board is Jhonattan Vegas (8:16am, +17500), who was top-five after round one of last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s had a lot of bad at this track, but also a tie third in 2019 and also a T-7th result. Clearly he’s not likely to be at the top following Thursday with these odds, but given last week’s API and some success he’s had at this track, he’s worth a flier in the Players Championship longshot bets.