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Live 2018 Masters Odds Tracker

Alex Kilpatrick

by Alex Kilpatrick in Golf

Updated Apr 15, 2020 · 3:05 PM PDT

Rory McIlroy sticking his follow-through
Is Rory McIlroy poised to win his first Green Jacket? Photo by Tour Pro GOlf Clubs (Flickr).
  • The current Masters odds, as well as how they’ve evolved
  • Some tips on making smart bets at Augusta
  • You’re just going to bet  on Tiger Woods, aren’t you

The Masters is the most prestigious tournament in golf, which you know because they’ll write it on everything. This year’s edition, starting May 5th, is one of the most hotly anticipated golf tournaments of the last decade. We’ll keep this updated with stats and picks as the tournament unfolds, so bookmark this page for all your Masters betting needs.

2018 Masters Betting Odds

How the Odds have shifted:

We’ll track the top-10 players, and how their odds evolve through the week.

An interesting note: the sum of the implied probabilities, which is the vig in this case, skyrocketed when we went from Futures to Live Odds. Wednesday night the vig was 28%, and on Thursday it’s 42%. Friday morning it’s 46%. Saturday morning is 20%, as Tiger is now out of contention and the sports books can relax a little.

Live Masters Updates

4/8/2018 at 18:40ET Well that’ll do it. Patrick Reed, who started the week at +5000 on the odds sheet, is your Masters champion. Thanks for reading!

4/8/2018 at 17:39ET Patrick Reed is no longer the odds-on favorite, currently listed at EVEN. Jordan Spieth has made some big moves on the betting sheet today, with odds as long as +5000 this morning and now at +150.

4/8/2018 at 16:21ET Betting card is now down to six golfers, and we have an odds-on favorite: Patrick Reed at -125. To celebrate, here’s a video of Bubb Watson putting into a bunker.

4/8/2018 at 15:31ET We’re getting to that point where individual golf shots influence the live betting line. Rory’s close approach on 4 moved his odds from +250 to +150.

4/8/2018 at 15:04ET Jordan Spieth is making kind of a charge, and is a betting underdog at +1400. If you want to bet Speith, you need him to make a charge and for Patrick Reed to fall apart a little. Both of those things appear to be happening.

4/8/2018 at 10:44ET We’ve updated the odds sheet, which has been whittled down to just 14 golfers. Tiger isn’t one of them, but Cameron Smith is. Who would have guessed.

4/7/2018 at 18:40ET Patrick Reed finishes the day -14, which makes him a comfortable favorite at +120. McIlroy is at -11 and +185. More rain will make big scores tomorrow easier, so I think this is still tighter than the odds sheet would have you believe.

4/7/2018 at 18:03ET Patrick Reed makes an amazing eagle at 15, moves to -15. He’s kind of a spoiler, very few had him picked and sports bettors are already making memes about the leader. He has a very hateable face.

Patrick Reed
Scumbag Patrick Reed

4/7/2018 at 17:11ET Patrick Reed is -11, three ahead of McIlroy. Reed is listed at +350 and McIlroy is at +175, which is by far the shortest we’ve seen this whole tournament. There are four golfers at -6, Fleetwood (+1600), Leishman(+2000), Henrik Stenson (+1400), and Bubba Watson (+3300). It’s a little wild that Fleetwood is considered twice as likely to win as two-time champion Bubba Watson.

4/7/2018 at 15:32ET This is tightening up, with three golfers at -6 and McIlroy (now the favorite at +225) just one off the lead at -7 and definitely trending in the right direction. Jon Rahm making a run is scary, he’s at +1200 and making moves.

Some absolutely pure weekend sauce here.

4/7/2018 at 11:10ET The odds sheet has shortened, as has the field. Hoping this cuts down on the vig at least a little. EDIT: It has! We’re now down to 20%, which is the lowest we’ve seen in a long time.

4/6/2018 at 19:53ET That’ll wrap it up for the day. Obviously, a lot of movement on the odds sheet as well as the leaderboard. The only value I see at the top is Marc Leishman, who has put together two stellar rounds and is still at +600. Reed’s obviously tearing the course apart, but with two days of golf and just a two-stroke lead, I’m a little nervous about +275. Tomorrow will be a big day, Patrick Reed has a chance to really run away with it.

4/6/2018 at 19:14ET Tiger Woods is now +10000, or a 100/1 shot. For the first time in about five months, I’m comfortable saying his odds aren’t too short.

4/6/2018 at 18:58ET Absolutely reeling from Marc Leishman’s eagle on 15, what an approach shot. He’s now listed at +800, playing -7 through 17. Patrick Reed has a three stroke lead on him and a huge lead in the betting odds, at +250 he’s the strongest favorite we’ve seen. Pretty good for a guy who was +6000 on Wednesday. Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson are both at -3 and +1000, having put together great rounds.

4/6/2018 at 17:11ET Tiger bogeys 12 and moves to +5, which is going to be the cut line. Oddsmakers have him at +10000, which is probably still too short. He’s at the same odds as Vijay Singh and Rafa Cabrera-Bello, who are in no danger of getting cut.

4/6/2018 at 16:12ET Spieth finishes his day at -4, and at +350 he’s still the favorite to win. Remarkable turnaround from his struggle early in the day. McIlroy’s at the same number, and +450 on the odds sheet.

4/6/2018 at 14:42ET Leishman and Patrick Reed are both off to hot starts, with Leishman making birdie on the first three holes and Reed on the first two. Both are now at +1000, but that could change dramatically when they hit the back nine. Leishman has the first few holes figured out, we saw that yesterday, but cooled down a bit on after the turn.

4/6/2018 at 13:17ET The first we heard of Bernd Wiesberger, he was +30000 on Wednesday. Now he’s made two birdies in a row to become your solo leader, at +4000. I don’t think he’ll last long at the top, but he’s sure doing well now. Rickie Folwer takes a lipout bogey on 9, heads to the back at -2. Things are looking good for Rory McIlroy at +700, as all his biggest competitors are falling prey to the course.

4/6/2018 at 12:19ET Spieth made a double bogey at 1, and a bogey at 2, to drop to -3 and just a share of the lead. Oddsmakers still have him at +450? Not a lot of guys double 1 and go on to get a green jacket.

4/5/2018 at 19:07ET Spieth makes bogey on 18 to finish the day -6 and with a two-stroke lead. Could have been a lot worse, with that drive. Rory McIlroy finished -3 and is still a favorite at +500. Dustin Johnson is a couple heart breaking putts from being right up there, but is even through 17, and listed at +1600. He’s not playing poorly, and he leads in pretty much any statistical category you can name. Water will always find its level and Jordan Spieth could very easily find the water, is what I’m saying.

4/5/2018 at 18:40ET Jordan Spieth birdied 16 (his fourth in a row) and is now at -6, solo leader. He’s also got a very makeable birdie put at 17. Don’t think anyone’s going to move him any shorter than +275 on Thursday, there’s still a lot of golf to play. Mickelson finishes the day at -2 and +1400, which is only slightly better than he started at.

4/5/2018 at 17:51ET Jordan Spieth birdies 14 to move to -4 and a share of the lead. Oddsmakers have moved him to +275, which is starting to make sense. Not only is he playing well, but a lot of the guys who can challenge him have posted bad to disappointing scores.

4/5/2018 at 16:49ET Tony Finau takes six on 14, is no longer your leader. He rolled his ankle yesterday celebrating an improbable ace at the par-three contest, and is visibly limping today. Playing as well as he has is hugely impressive. I don’t think his ankle is going to get better, playing a round of golf and walking 7435 yards isn’t exactly the RICE recovery method.

I’m waiting for one of the kids to hit a run of birdies on the back nine. Things have been a little too quiet for a while. Hao Tong Li is the overall leader, but the sports book don’t think that’ll last. He’s still listed at  +2500.

4/5/2018 at 15:49ET 
I’m not sure I want to live in a world weird enough that Charley Hoffman leads after day one of the Masters two years in a row. Save us, Henrik Stenson.

Tiger makes par on 18, will finish the day +1. Leishman gets a lucky bounce and a tap-in birdie, finishes at -2. Leishman’s at +3300 and Tiger’s at +1600. Tiger’s bald spot shows up big time when he doffs his cap to the crowd.

With Tiger’s round finished, some otherworldy #TourSauce for your records.

4/5/2018 at 15:19ET  Sergio put another one in the water on 15. You have to admire his consistency with the wedges.

4/5/2018 at 15:12ET Tiger hits a birdie putt at 16 to get to +1. Is Tiger Back? Spieth misses a shortish putt (???) and will take a bogey, sportsbooks bump him to +550, same as Rory McIlroy. Sergio dunks one (EDIT: two FURTHER EDIT three) in the water on 15. Will update this page when Tiger’s drive on 17 stops rolling.

4/5/2018 at 14:56ET Jordan Spieth gets to -2 on the leaderboard and +500 on the odds sheet. That’s the strongest favorite we’ve seen yet, lets see if he can hang on to it. Tiger Woods (my new leader in “Strokes Gained Punching Out Sideways”) makes GIR on 15 somehow and is back at +2500, the same odds as Jon Rahm, the freakishly talented 22 year-old at even par.

4/5/2018 at 14:30ET Tiger dunked it into the water at 12, but escaped with just a bogey. That’s mighty impressive, but he’s still at +3300 despite being T65. Danny Willet is at the same number at +40000

4/5/2018 at 14:13ET Rory birdied 1, and saw his odds drop to +550. With just 71 holes left to play, McRib is the strong favorite to win his first green jacket. Nobody has ever lost money prematurely betting on Rory at Augusta, that’s for sure.

Current Odds

Here’s the pre-round Sunday odds:

Player Odds to win the Masters
Patrick Reed +120
Rory McIlroy +185
Rickie Fowler +700
Jon Rahm +1400
Henrik Stenson +2500
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Bubba Watson +5000
Jordan Spieth +5000
Marc Leishman +6600
Justin Thomas +8000
Dustin Johnson +10000
Justin Rose +40000
Louis Oosthuizen +50000
Cameron Smith +50000

Masters Betting Tips

Augusta favours lefties

You can see this two ways. Looking at the course map, you’ll see a lot of high, right-to-left tee shots that are a lot easier for a left-handed player. You’ll see that the 12th green is built for a left hander to go at the pin with a little fade on Sunday, and is fiendishly tricky for a right-handed player.

You can also see this in the results. Bubba Watson has two green jackets, Phil Mickelson has three. Hell, even Mike Weir has one. That’s six wins in the seventeen tournaments since the start of this millenium, shared between a group that makes up 10% of the population and just 7% of the field.

Sportsbooks will let you bet on who will be the low lefty, at these odds:

Player Odds to be Top Left Handed Player
Bubba Watson +110
Phil Mickelson +115
Brian Harman +500
Ted Potter Jr. +2500
Mike Weir +6600
Yuxin Lin +10000

It’s all about approach

You’ll hear a lot of talk about how important putting is at Augusta, and that’s partially true. When you look at the list of winners, however, you’ll see a bunch of guys that aren’t exactly aces with the flat stick. Bubba Watson isn’t a great putter. Phil has had his problems. Sergio won in a year he finished with negative shots gained putting.

What winners do have in common is that they’re accurate with irons and wedges, and leave themselves makeable putts. Getting out of position on the severe greens at Augusta is a death sentence, so the guys who win are the guys who are able to put themselves in the right spots. Mickelson is an all-time great with the irons. Spieth led the tour last year in approach to the green. Tiger’s biggest strength was always his distance control with the irons.

Here’s some of the top players in shots gained on approach, and their odds to win.

Player SG:A Rank Odds to win
Sergio Garcia 1 +3300
Phil Mickelson 4 +2000
Justin Thomas 5 +1200
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 7 +12500
Paul Casey 8 +2500
Jordan Spieth 9 +1000

Shots gained vs implied probability

I wanted to make a quick ratio that compares a golfer’s shots gained (basically a value stat for golfers) to their implied probability of winning, so that I could quickly find golfers who are maybe underrated. Here’s five players that give a lot of value, for their odds.

Player Shots Gained Odds SG/IP Rank
Webb Simpson 1.499 +25000 1
Chez Reavie 0.961 +30000 2
Brendan Steele 1.274 +20000 3
Brian Harman 1.576 +10000 9
Alex Noren 1.892 +5000 22

Alex Noren leaps off the page, because he’s not exactly a no-name guy and but his odds haven’t quite caught up to his play. Brain Harman makes a lot of sense, as a lefty and a hometown favorite, but I love Noren at +5000.

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