PGA Championship Odds, Predictions, and Best Picks 2025

• The PGA Championship from Charlotte, North Carolina, tees off Thursday, May 15th
• Scottie Scheffler is the favorite over Rory McIlroy to win the second major of the season
• See my 2025 PGA Championship odds, picks, and best value bets, below

After Rory McIlroy won the first major of 2025 at the Masters, he attempts to win the first two legs of the season grand slam at a venue he’s had a ton of success on. The host this year is Quail Hollow Golf Club, where Rory has won four times in his career. Justin Thomas, who recently won the RBC Heritage, picked up his first of two PGA Championship titles at this track in 2017.

Sepp Straka comes in as the latest winner of the Truist Championship, and he’s +6000 to go back-to-back. World #1 Scottie Scheffler won for the first time in 2025 in dominant fashion by eight strokes at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and he’s searching for his third career major title. Should Jordan Spieth (+5000) win, he’ll join McIlroy as career grand slam champions.

PGA Championship Odds 2025

Scottie Scheffler is the slight +400 favorite over Rory McIlroy (+475) in the opening PGA Championship odds. On the campaign, McIlroy has three titles, including the Masters, compared to Scheffler’s one victory. Bryson DeChambeau is the third choice, after finishing T-5th at Augusta National, and runner-up at the 2024 PGA. Two-time major champs Jon Rahm and defending champ Xander Schauffele round out the top-five.

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Justin Thomas Back at Site of First Major Title

There aren’t many players currently in as great of form as Justin Thomas, who has won the PGA Championship twice (2017, 2022). The first of those two came at this very course at Quail Hollow, and he’s playing so well that he’s absolutely on the short list of players who could win the season’s second major. He’s coming off a tie for second showing at the Truist Championship, and the tournament before that, he took the trophy at the RBC Heritage.

Past Five PGA Championship Winners

Seven golfers have shorter odds than Thomas to emerge victorious come Sunday evening, but there aren’t many playing as well as him. In his last four times teeing it up, JT has a victory, a pair of seconds and a middling Masters result. Given that he’s tasted success at this golf course in the past, I’m very bullish on him adding yet another Wanamaker Trophy to his case.

PGA Championship 2025 Picks & Value Bets

1. Shane Lowry +6000: By the law of averages, Shane Lowry has to have a W to his credit soon enough, given all the chances he’s accumulated this season. He’s coming off a hard luck runner-up at the Truist Championship, where the putter didn’t cooperate on Sunday. He’s on a ridiculous run of 16 of 19 worldwide starts inside the top-20. The Irishman has also put together five top-12s in the last seven attempts at the PGA, three of which were top-8s. You can be pretty confident that after placing this bet, he’ll be in contention. You have to take the good with the bad, knowing the putter might be the sore spot. Should he even putt decently well, he’ll be tough to beat.
2. Russell Henley +6500: Russell Henley won the best of his five career PGA Tour titles in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a signature event. He’s been in contention in a few majors in his career, posting a T-4 at the Masters in 2023, then the last two majors in 2024 he was T-7 at the US Open and fifth at the Open Championship. This season, two starts ago he posted a top-10 at the RBC Heritage, another signature tourney. On the campaign, Henley is fifth in total strokes gained.
3. Cameron Smith +11000: Before leaving for LIV golf, Cameron Smith ascended to #2 in the world golf rankings, having captured the 2022 Players Championship and Open Championship. He’s posted top 10’s in his last three LIV starts, and has racked up nine career top-10s in majors. This number feels like a misprice, given his world class game. Jump on it promptly, because I can see this number being bet down.
4. Cameron Young +25000: It’s remarkable that Cameron Young somehow still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour. After struggling with his game, he finished T-7th at the Truist Championship, making him an intriguing possibility at this wild number. In his career, he’s put up seven career runner-ups, including the 2022 Open Championship, and a T-3rd at the PGA that year. He’ll be an interesting longshot name to monitor in the top 5/10/20 markets.