PGA Championship Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Ahead of Round 2

• Jhonattan Vegas has a two shot lead after the first round of the PGA Championship
• Tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler is five shots back, while Rory McIlroy is a full ten strokes behind
• Read below for PGA Championship odds and my picks to win along with head-to-head betting markets

The first round of the PGA Championship is in the books, and there were a lot of surprising opening rounds posted by the worlds best golfers. The threesome of Scottie Scheffler (-2), reigning PGA champ Xander Schauffele (+1) and last month’s Masters winner Rory McIlroy (+3) weren’t firing on all cylinders. Venezuelan Jhonattan Vegas grabbed the solo first-round lead, despite being +25000 to be on top after 18 holes. Vegas, who has four PGA Tour wins to his credit, doesn’t have a top-20 in a major championship in his career, but he shot a sizzling 7-under, 64.

Below, I’ll list some good value bets for who might win the tournament. Also, why wait to potentially win cash Sunday when you could enter the weekend flying high over some cold hard cash? For that, I have a head-to-head bet for Friday’s second round.

PGA Championship Tournament Winner Odds

Despite being the leader, oddsmakers aren’t overly bullish on Jhonattan Vegas to go the distance at +1800. Unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler, who was the pre-tournament favorite in the PGA Championship odds, is the +330 top choice to win his first career Wanamaker Trophy.

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PGA Championship Picks to Win Tournament

• Jon Rahm +1800
• Viktor Hovland +2500

Jon Rahm entered this tournament with the fourth shortest odds to grab the third leg of the career grand slam. He backed that up with a solid first go around Quail Hollow, shooting a -1, 70. He had a bit of a see-saw round, with five birdies offsetting four bogeys.

Remarkably, since joining LIV Golf, the fiery Spaniard has racked up top-10s in all 19 starts he’s made. In the season’s first major, Rahm was solid, if unspectacular, with a T-14th result at the Masters.

Rahm is the owner of the 2021 US Open trophy and the 2023 Masters. He’s fairly forgotten in golf circles, except for the four majors each year. I haven’t forgotten about the stone cold killer on the golf course, who won eleven times on the PGA Tour before bolting to LIV.

My next choice is Viktor Hovland, who has had a mixed bag in 2025. Prior to his title at the Valspar Championship, he’d missed three straight cuts and had an up and down last 18 months as he changed swings and coaches and was in something of disarray. However, Hovland was the 2023 FedEx Cup champion, so he knows how to elevate his game in big tourmaments.

He’s something of a PGA Championship merchant, having finished runner-up in 2023, and then third in 2024. With his success at this tournament, I really love his +2500 number to emerge victorious. Hovland is -2, tied with Scheffler. Despite them both being five strokes back, in my mind Scheffler is the actual leader, compared to all the players who aren’t world beaters up at the top of the board.

PGA Championship Second-Round Head-to-Head Pick

• Hideki Matsuyama (-105) over Joaquin Niemann (-120)

Hideki Matsuyama (+1) got the better of Joaquin Niemann (+3) in Thursday’s opening round. The 2021 Masters champ had three birdies against four bogeys, while the Chilean had three birdies, four bogeys and a double bogey.

Matsuyama has had 10 top-10’s in major championships in his career, while Niemann has yet to post a top-10 in 23 attempts, with a best finish of T-16th at the 2023 Masters. What Niemann does have going for him are his five wins on LIV the last two years, including three in 2025. That still hasn’t quite translated to the majors.

Matsuyama also has had success at this major at this venue in 2017, where he finished T-5th. Considering he was two strokes better than Niemann on day one, I’m bullish on Matsuyama to win this matchup as an underdog.