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Tiger Woods vs Phil Mickelson: $10 Million Match Odds and Props

Alex Kilpatrick

by Alex Kilpatrick in Golf

Updated Aug 3, 2018 · 10:26 AM PDT

Phil Mickelson
Phil Mickelson has set his sights on a $10 million match with Tiger Woods. Can it happen? Who will win? Photo by Peter Brown [CC License].
  • Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson are reportedly very close to finalizing the details of their $10 million match
  • We’ve set some odds (and came up with some props) for your viewing pleasure
  • Never forget that Tiger Woods beat Stephen Ames 9 and 8 at the 2006 Match Play Championship

Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson are getting closer and closer to the $10 million, head-to-head match play showdown that golf fans have been salivating over since Phil first floated the idea. The date has been set at Thanksgiving, and the venue is rumored to be Shadow Creek Golf Club in Las Vegas.

This will be the first match of its kind, and even just thinking about it has changed the golf world forever. It seems bizarre that Tiger and Phil have never faced each other one-on-one in match play before, and makes you wonder what the PGA Tour is for.

Tiger vs Phil Odds and Props

Odds to Win Match

Player Odds to Win Match
Tiger Woods 2/3
Phil Mickelson 3/2

Tiger will be the favorite, both because he’s performing better this year and because his brand name will drive the betting market wild. 

Spread for the Match

Player Spread
Tiger Woods -1.5
Phil Mickelson +1.5

Tiger Woods beat Stephen Ames 9 and 8 at the 2006 Match Play Championship. Years later, the writer of this article reminded Stephen Ames of this event at a charity golf tournament. We can report: Stephen Ames remembers losing 9 and 8 to Tiger Woods at the 2006 Match Play Championship.

The odds on this match haven’t changed since we last set them, because Tiger and Phil have been cruising along since then and (as far as we know) the course doesn’t favor one or the other.

Over/Under Highest Score to Win a Hole

Highest Score to Win Hole Odds
Over 4.5 1/1
Under 4.5 1/1

Shadow Creek isn’t exactly a long course, but sometimes par’s enough on a par five.

Odds to be a Hole-in-One

Will there be a Hole-in-One? Odds
Yes 300/1
No 1/300

PGA Tour players make hole-in-ones at a rate of roughly once every 2,500 holes. There are four par threes at Shadow Creek, and two better-than-average PGA Tour players, so the math isn’t super complicated.

Odds to be Greater

Which is Greater? Odds
Total Purse 1/3
Total Bet in Vegas 3/1

If the purse is the reported $10 million, Las Vegas will have a hard time eking that out of bettors. This is, after all, an exhibition golf match.

Over/Under Censored Moments

Player Over/Under
Tiger Woods 0.5
Phil Mickelson 4.5

Tiger Woods has been a famous TV personality since he was two, so he’s a pro. Phil Mickelson stopped caring about what’s expected of him about four years ago, so he’s going to shoot from the hip.

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