US Open First-Round Leader Predictions & Picks

• The US Open tees off Thursday, June 12th, from Oakmont Country Club, just outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to lead after 18 holes over Bryson DeChambeau
• Read below for five selections of mine to be leader after day one of the US Open

The third major of 2025 is upon us, after Rory McIlroy won the Masters and Scottie Scheffler claimed the PGA Championship. Unsurprisingly, Scheffler is the favorite in the US Open odds as the field gets set to wrestle with Oakmont Country Club. The players will be up against a brute of a golf course that saw a winning score of +5 when Angel Cabrera took the title in 2007, and -4 when Dustin Johnson won at Oakmont in 2016.

Instead of waiting until Sunday to potentially collect our earnings, this article will explore bets that can be made that will settle at the conclusion of the first round, searching to find who will be the first-round leader after 18 holes.

US Open First-Round Leader Odds

The weather will be mainly sunny, with temperatures between mid 60’s in the morning, reaching a high in the mid 80’s in the afternoon. Wind will increase slightly as the day wears on, with gusts around 5MPH in the morning and 10MPH in the afternoon. Scottie Scheffler, the favorite to win outright, is sporting the shortest odds to be first-round leader, followed by defending champion and two-time US Open winner Bryson DeChambeau.

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US Open First-Round Leader Picks

• Collin Morikawa +3500
• Shane Lowry +4000
• Ben Griffin +6000
• Keegan Bradley +6500
• Ryan Fox +7000

In terms of the top guns, I’ve honed in on two-time major champion Collin Morikawa (1:25pm tee time). He’s had a really solid season, despite not picking up a title, with eight top-20s in eleven starts, including a pair of runner-ups. Morikawa has also been brilliant in US Opens, going T-4th in 2021, T-5th in 2022, and T-14th in both the last two years.

The last twelve rounds at the US Open, he’s fourth in strokes gained: approach, and fifth in total strokes gained, ball striking and tee-to-green.

Another big name that’s no stranger on leaderboards at major championships is Shane Lowry (7:40am), with his nine top-10s in the grand slam tourneys, including his 2019 Open Championship triumph. He’s second in strokes gained: tee-to-green and approach on the campaign, something that will come in handy at the difficult Oakmont venue.

The Irishman has ten top-25s in 14 starts on the PGA Tour this year, and he’s also had great success at this venue. In 2016, the last time the US Open was at this track, Lowry led by four strokes entering the final round, before eventually finishing in a tie for second.

PGA Tour First-Round Scoring Average Leaders

Longshots Who Could Lead After 18 Holes

Ben Griffin (7:29am) has been on an absolute heater of late. He won the Zurich Classic for his first title, then three starts later, was T-8th at the PGA Championship. Following that, Griffin won yet again at the Charles Schwab Challenge, then was runner-up at the Memorial Tournament. That week, he held the outright lead after Thursday.

Keegan Bradley (7:18am), the USA Ryder Cup captain this year, has been playing very solid golf, with four top-10s on the campaign, including his last two events, a T-7th at the Memorial and T-8th at the PGA. His last 24 rounds, he’s third in strokes gained: tee-to-green, vital for success at this brute of a track.

For my final selection, I’m going with Ryan Fox (12:41pm), a +7000 longshot. He’s been on the first page of leaderboards in the first round plenty of times this year, ranking fifth best in 2025 of those competing at the US Open.

All he’s done his last tournaments is win twice, his first two PGA Tour triumphs, becoming the first New Zealander to win twice in the same season on the main circuit. Sandwiched in between the wins at the Myrtle Beach Classic and RBC Canadian Open were a T-20th at the Memorial and T-28th at the PGA. As longshots go, you can do a lot worse than a player who is scorching hot.