US Open Longshots to Bet – Best Longshot Picks for Oakmont

• The 125th US Open tees off Thursday from Oakmont Country Club
• Ludvig Aberg ranks top-18 in both driving distance and fairways gained over the past 36 rounds at difficult courses
• See my US Open Longshots to Target in both the outright and finishing position markets

The toughest test in golf awaits the game’s best this week at Oakmont Country Club. The 125th US Open promises to be a diabolical challenge, with most pros speculating a winning score around even par.

Major championship golf has been dominated by the chalk over the last two years, with the last six winners all going off at 20-1 or lower. The silver lining is that the last mega longshot to win a Major came at this tournament back in 2023, when Wyndham Clark shocked the world as a +10000 pre-tournament underdog.

US Open Longshots to Bet

I’m not going quite that deep with my US Open Longshot picks this week, settling more in the mid-range. My favorite selection is Ludvig Aberg at +3000, who’s game is tailor made to win at golf’s toughest venues.

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US Open Longshot Picks

• Ludvig Aberg to Win (+3000 at DraftKings)
• Patrick Cantlay to Win (+5500 at DraftKings)

The key to success at most traditional US Open’s is a bomb-and-gouge strategy. This week, distance will still be paramount, but the rough is so gnarly that I’m putting extra emphasis on accuracy off the tee as well. Players are going to have virtually no shot to advance the ball out of the 5+ inch rough, so the only way to score is by playing from the short grass.

Fortunately, off the tee is Aberg’s specialty. The Swede is the only player over the last 36 rounds to rank inside the top-18 in both driving distance and accuracy at difficult courses, the tracks majors and the biggest Tour events of the year are played on.

Ludvig Aberg Last 6 Major Championship Results

Sticking with stats from those difficult courses, no player is better on long par 4’s between 450 and 500 yards than Aberg. He also ranks top-16 in strokes gained approach and wedge proximity between 75-100 yards, and strokes gained tee-to-green. Aberg’s US Open debut came last year, and he impressed everyone with a 12th place result.

Our next target in the US Open odds, is Patrick Cantlay at +5500. This is a steep discount from where Cantlay’s been priced in the past, as he’s traditionally 20-30 points lower in the odds, depending on form.

Cantlay checks the box in driving distance this week, but is slightly below average in accuracy. He’s got an impeccable US Open track record however, and enters the week in solid form. Cantlay boasts four consecutive top-15’s at this event, and has seven top-20’s on Tour this season, including three-top 5’s.

US Open Best Value Bets

• Ryan Gerard Top 20 (+400 at DraftKings)

Shifting over the to the finishing positions market, where Ryan Gerard is our favorite value bet. He’s +400 to finish inside the top-20, a feat he just accomplished at the PGA Championship, and earlier this year at Torrey Pines, host of the 2021 US Open. All in all, Gerard has six top-20’s this season, and is one of only four players to rank inside the top-40 in both driving distance and accuracy over the past 24 rounds on all courses.

Additionally, Gerard is no stranger to Oakmont and the challenges it presents. He played here at the 2021 US Amateur, where he advanced out of the stroke play portion and made the round of 32.