US Open Projected Cut Line & Live Odds to Make the Cut

• The 125th US Open Championship continues Friday from Oakmont Country Club with a brutal projected cut line
• World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler sits at +4 and faces potential elimination from weekend play
• See current cut line projections and live leaderboard in the story below

The 2025 US Open at Oakmont Country Club is proving why it’s golf’s most brutal major championship. With just 10 players under par after Thursday’s opening round, the cut line projections are climbing to historically high levels that could send some of the sport’s biggest names packing early. Sam Burns leads at three-under par after a stellar 65, but the real story is who’s going to survive Friday’s cut.

Oakmont’s notorious difficulty has created one of the most compelling cut scenarios in recent US Open history. The current projected cut line has shifted dramatically throughout the day, with Data Golf models now showing just a 7.3% probability of making the cut at +6 and 92.7% at +7. This would rival the highest cut lines ever recorded at a US Open, approaching the brutal +10 cut from Oakmont’s 2007 tournament.

Find the current US Open cut line odds and make-the-cut probabilities directly below the live leaderboard.

US Open Live Leaderboard

US Open Projected Cut Line Analysis

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The numbers behind Oakmont’s projected cut line paint a pretty grim picture for players who can’t get anything going on this beast of a course. As of Friday afternoon, the cut line probability distribution shows the most likely scenarios clustering around the +6 to +7 range, significantly higher than last year’s +5 cut at Pinehurst.

History backs up these projections too. Oakmont delivered a +6 cut in 2016 and holds the tournament record with that +10 carnage from 2007.

US Open Cut Line Probability Breakdown

Sam Burns was Friday’s biggest climber, firing a stellar five-under 65 that stood out as one of the day’s best scores. Burns vaulted to three-under overall and into the solo lead, proving that good scoring is still there for players who can dodge Oakmont’s landmines. J.J. Spaun, who led after round one, struggled to a +2 round and now sits at two-under.

Viktor Hovland also made some real headway, posting a solid two-under 68 to get to one-under for the tournament and put himself in decent shape above the projected cut line.

Live Make the Cut Odds

The biggest shocker involves World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who came in with pre-tournament odds around -2000 to make the cut but struggled to a +4 finish. Despite the rough start, his position is now safe with Data Golf confirming a 100% chance to play the weekend. His struggles Thursday were one of the tournament’s most surprising storylines, especially since he hadn’t missed a cut in a major since the 2022 PGA Championship.

Rory McIlroy has improved to +7 but still faces serious danger. The four-time major champion’s odds show -165 to make the cut and +125 to miss, with Data Golf giving him a 62.3% chance to play the weekend. That’s better than earlier projections but still represents a dramatic fall for a player who started his tournament at two-under through nine holes.

Defending champion Bryson DeChambeau is in desperate straits at +8, with his odds at an astronomical +12400 to make the cut and -25000 to miss. Data Golf has him at just 0.8% to make the cut, meaning the defending champion is virtually eliminated. Other big names already out include Justin Thomas at +12, while Jordan Spieth squeaked in at +5 with a 100% chance to play on.