US Open Round 4 Picks & Predictions for Sunday

• Sam Burns is a +170 favorite to win the US Open entering Sunday’s final round
• Burns is one of only four players under par at Oakmont Country Club
• See my US Open picks and predictions for Sunday’s final round, below

Through three rounds at the US Open, Oakmont Country Club has been as difficult as advertised, if not more. The diabolical course has sent some of the best players in the world into fits and, after 54 holes, only four of them remain under par. That group is led by Sam Burns, who carded a one-under round of 69 on Saturday to take a one-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round.

US Open Live Odds

Burns is now a +170 favorite in the 2025 US Open odds, which would be his first Major title. Adam Scott and JJ Spaun are hot on his tail with +320 and +330 odds respectively, while Viktor Hovland rounds out the top four at +650. Hovland may be three strokes back when play begins on Sunday, but he’s my favorite pick of those under par to lift the coveted trophy.

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US Open Predictions

• Viktor Hovland to Win (+650)

We’ll get to Hovland momentarily, but we can’t gloss over what Burns and the other top contenders accomplished Saturday. Both Burns and Spaun fired rounds of 69, while Adam Scott posted the best score of the day with a 67.

I’ve been fading Spaun since the opening round, as I’m not convinced he can continue to get away with relying on his short game. Spaun is known as a flusher, but this week the bulk of his success can be attributed to his play on and around the greens. He’s gained 3.29 strokes in that area, and just 1.74 with his ball striking. Regression is coming, and I’m banking on it happening Sunday.

Scott on the other hand, played near flawless golf in Round 3. He gained strokes in all five major categories, finishing with a +5.69 tally in the total strokes gained metric. However, I’m skeptical he can carry that momentum over to the Final Round. Scott ranks 84th in Sunday scoring average this season, and hasn’t had a top-10 result since last year’s Tour Championship.

Burns meanwhile, should have won last week in Canada. He got the yips with the putter in the playoff, and another short miss reared its ugly head down the stretch on Saturday as well. The American immediately bounced back, but I wouldn’t discount that from happening in a key spot on Sunday. Burns has been among the best players in the field in most categories this week, but actually trails Hovland in the tee-to-green metric.

Viktor Hovland Stats After 3 Rounds

Hovland leads all players this week in tee-to-green play, despite being a negative off the tee and on the greens. His flat stick and driver are the hallmarks of his game, and I expect both those clubs to show up in the Final Round. Hovland also leads the field in approach play, and has the scoring chops to erase a 3 shot deficit quickly.

US Open Picks for Sunday’s Final Round

• Tyrrell Hatton to Win (+2200): Outside of Hovland, my favorite US Open pick to win entering Sunday is Tyrrell Hatton. The Englishman carded a 2-under par round of 68 on Saturday, and it could have easily been much better. Hatton led the field in ball striking, gaining 5.14 strokes off the tee and on approach. He wound up losing strokes on and around the green, and those areas are usually where his bread is buttered. Hatton’s gained at least 2.2 strokes around the green in each of his last three measured events, all Majors, and if he can clean up his scrambling in the Final Round he’ll be a factor on the front page of the leaderboard.