Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks for Sunday (Round 4)

• Hideki Matsuyama is the +260 favorite to win the WM Phoenix Open entering Sunday’s final round
• Four golfers are just one stroke behind, with pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler lurking
• See my WM Phoenix Open picks for Sunday’s final round, below

If you like swinging for the fences in your outright golf betting, well then Sunday at the raucous and rambunctious WM Phoenix Open is for you. Two-time champion Hideki Matsuyama holds onto a perilous one shot advantage over a quartet of golfers, with 15 golfers within four of top spot.

Scottie Scheffler, who entered this event as the clear favorite in the WM Phoenix Open odds to win this tourney for the third time, is on the periphery of contention, five behind. He’s no stranger to epic comebacks in his career.

WM Phoenix Open Live Odds – Final Round

Hideki Matsuyama is the most accomplished player by far at either 13 of 12 under par, as he’s leading and has racked up eleven PGA Tour titles. The four players trailing aren’t as decorated, with Si Woo Kim hoisting four trophies, Maverick McNealy one, and Nicolai Hojgaard and Ryo Hisatsune still looking for their maiden triumph on the circuit.

Odds as of 7:30pm on Feb. 7 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the WM Phoenix Open. 

Matsuyama Searching For Third WM Phoenix Open

To say Hideki Matsuyama loves this track would be an understatement. He was victorious at TPC Scottsdale in both 2016 and 2017, taking both of them in playoffs. That’s been a common occurrence at this tournament, with six of the last ten champions needing extra holes to emerge on top. Apart from those two wins, Matsuyama also has a T-2nd, T-4th and T-8th at the WM.

Through three rounds, he’s third in strokes gained: approach and around the green, and eighth in putting. When Matsuyama typically falters, it’s because the flatstick is giving him problems, but that’s not been the case through 54 holes as he looks for his first win of 2026.

Hideki Matsuyama’s Stats After 3 Rounds At WM Phoenix Open

Where the 2021 Masters champ has struggled thus far is off the tee, losing strokes to the majority of the field, of those that made the cut (62nd). With such a bunched leaderboard, I worry that’ll rear its ugly head on Sunday, like it did on the second hole Saturday, hitting it near cactus and having to take an unplayable lie and penalty stroke. He is clutch at converting 54 hole leads into wins (5-for-5), but one of these days he won’t get over the finish line.

Si Woo Kim has done everything but come out on top in his last ten worldwide starts, posting top-25s each time, with five top-6s, including a second place showing last time teeing it up. He’s first in driving accuracy for the week, which should lead to plenty of birdie chances in the final round. The putter is often his bugaboo, so if he can just putt halfway decently, I like his chances (+510) more than the leader (+260).

2026 WM Phoenix Open Picks To Win for Sunday’s Final Round

• Matt Fitzpatrick (+1275): 2022 U.S. Open winner Matt Fitzpatrick suffered a significant announcers jinx Saturday, after hitting the first twelve greens in regulation (and every fairway), as Jim Nantz said nobody has been perfect for a round in tournament history. Fitz was a bit sloppy down the stretch, with three birdies offset by a double bogey and a bogey, but he’s just two behind. The Englishmen was first in driving accuracy and fourth in SG: off-the-tee in the third round, and if he replicates that Sunday, should be squarely in the mix for the title.
• Scottie Scheffler (+2100): Scottie Scheffler is never out of a tournament. He’s five behind to begin the final round, but he erased that deficit to win the 2024 Players and was also four back before claiming 2024 Olympic Gold. After a dreadful +2 opening day, Scheffler has shot 65-67. The undisputed world #1 had the best scoring average last year on the final day of events, and will need to shoot a blistering round. At +2100 to win outright, his odds are just juicy enough to take a flier on him, given that he’s won twice (2022, 2023) at the WM, and took The American Express in his last stop two weeks ago.

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