How to Bet the 2016 US Open

Tennis’ US Open begins this Monday (August 29). While last year the sizzle of Serena Williams hoping to earn a Grand Slam energized fans and media, this year’s field is more wide open. The usual favorites are present on both the men’s and women’s side of the draws, but neither are playing their best tennis of late. Are they ripe for an upset?

Let’s take a look at some of our betting options.

2016 US Open Betting Tips

Men

The Favorite

Novak Djokovic is even-money and deservedly so. The defending champ and 12-time major winner won three of four Grand Slams last year and has two more under his belt this season. However, he was dismissed in the third round at Wimbledon and lost his Olympic opener to Argentinian Juan Martin Del Potro in a hostile environment in Brazil. Djokovic is only 2-4 in US Open Finals. Last year he beat Roger Federer in four sets.

The Rival

Andy Murray (2/1) followed his second Wimbledon victory with a gold medal in Rio. The win at the All England Club was his third major title, while the Olympic victory marked his second gold. He lost to Djokovic in the final this year at both the Australian and French Open. He also reached the final at the Western & Southern Open last week in Cincinnati. At 2/1, he’s the only player in the field besides Djokovic who inspires any sort of confidence.

The Longshot

Now 30 years old, Rafael Nadal (20/1) is an all-time great, having won 14 majors. He reached the finals at the Olympics before falling to Del Potro, but he has not reached a major semifinal since winning his ninth French Open in 2014. He also lost early in Cincinnati. That loss could be a blessing in disguise for a guy who needs more rest than warm-up. Nadal proved in Rio that, if things break right, he still has the game to compete at the highest level.

Women

The Favorite

Possibly the best women’s player of all time, Serena Williams (6/5) is not the dominant favorite that she was a year ago. She has been in the final of all three majors this season, but has gone 1-2 in those matches. Last year, she was tripped up by Roberta Vinci in the U.S. Open semifinals. In Rio, she was dismissed by Elina Svitolina in two sets during the third round. At a shade over even money, there is value with Williams in a less than stellar field, but she is beatable.

The Rival

As strange is it is to say, Angelique Kerber (10/1) should probably be the top ranked player in the world. The lefty from Germany won her first major by beating Williams at this year’s Aussie Open. She then lost to Serena in the final at Wimbledon and fell to Monica Puig in the Olympic final, playing at less than 100-percent.

On Sunday in Cincinnati, she fell to Karolina Pliskova with the top ranking on the line, but she can once again ascend past Williams with a strong performance in New York.

History isn’t on her side; her best finish in New York was a trip to the semifinal in 2011. But 10/1 is still a juicy price for arguably the hottest player in the draw.

The Longshot

American Madison Keys is 15/1 and playing well. She reached the semifinal at the Olympics and wisely gave herself time to rest before the U.S. Open. After falling in three sets to Simona Halep in the fourth round at Wimbledon, she reached the final in Montreal, again falling to Halep in three sets. She lost to Serena in the final of the Italian Open in May and won a Wimbledon tune-up in England in June.

Two of three majors (plus the Olympics) have been won by first-timers this year. Why shouldn’t Keys be yet another?

Takeaway

It feels like a two horse race on the men’s side, and if the odds aren’t spread more widely, it is hard to pick against Djokovic. Kerber is not the next women’s tennis sensation, but she is playing very well, and her odds create significant value.

Photo credit: globalite [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.