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KBO Picks & Odds (July 28): Alcantara Aims to Outduel Jokisch Again

Doosan Bears
Doosan's Raul Alcantara is looking to become just the second KBO pitcher to reach 11 wins this season. Photo by @Chrisonthemarks (Twitter).
  • Kiwoom sends Eric Jokisch (9-3, 2.12 ERA) to the mound vs Doosan and Raul Alcantara (10-1, 2.89 ERA)
  • The Bears won this exact matchup a week ago, lighting Jokisch up for six runs
  • Find odds and best bets for the KBO’s five-game slate on July 28th in the article below

It took less than a week for the coronavirus to wreak havoc on Major League Baseball, yet the KBO has been in full swing since early May without any issues. The 10-team league will resume play Tuesday at 5:30 am EST, headlined by a tilt between second place Doosan and fourth place Kiwoom.

 KBO Odds: Tuesday, July 28th

Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
NC Dinos -170 -1.5 (-120) Over 11.5 (-110) 5:30 a.m.
Lotte Giants +140 +1.5 (-110) Under 11.5 (-120)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Kiwoom Heroes -105 +1.5 (-205) Over 8.5 (-105) 5:30 a.m.
Doosan Bears -125 -1.5 (+165) Under 8.5 (-125)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
KT Wiz Suwon +120 +1.5 (-155) Over 9.0 (-120) 5:30 a.m.
KIA Tigers -150 -1.5 (+125) Under 9.0 (-110)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
LG Twins -150 -1.5 (+100) Over 9.5 (-115) 5:30 a.m.
SK Wyverns +120 +1.5 (-130) Under 9.5 (-115)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Hanwha Eagles +200 +1.5 (+115) Over 10.0 (-110) 5:30 a.m.
Samsung Lions -260 -1.5 (-145) Under 10.0 (-120)

Odds as of July 27th.

The game will feature two of the KBO’s top-four pitchers, as the Heroes Erik Joksich will square off against the Bears Raul Alcantara. This exact matchup took place just a week ago, with Doosan posting a convincing 6-1 win.

Alcantara Stymies Heroes

That day belonged to Alcantara, as the 27-year-old stymied Kiwoom over seven shutout innings. He struck out eight and didn’t allow a run, dropping his ERA to 2.89. The right-hander is one of only two pitchers with 10 wins on their resume, and he’s surrendered just three runs in his last 27 innings.

He’s won his last 10 decisions and the Heroes offense has been struggling lately. They’ve scored three or fewer runs in four of their last five, and the under has hit in each of their last six outings.

Jokisch meanwhile, had by far his worst start of the season last week, giving up more than three runs in a start for the first time all season. He actually surrendered more runs (6) than in his previous four starts combined (5), but prior to that he’d been virtually flawless.

I’m willing to bet that last week was an aberration, and we’ll see the guy who’s held opponents scoreless in 57% of his outings this season.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

Lions Maul Eagles

The Hanwha Eagles winless streak has reached nine and now they’ll have to face a rested Tae In Won and the Samsung Lions. Won hasn’t pitched since July 8th, after getting his normal rotation spot skipped due to rest, and then having his scheduled start postponed last week.

The 20-year-old is someone we’ve repeatedly backed this season for good reason. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 12 starts and has been especially strong against weak offenses. In 22.2 innings against SK and Lotte (the second and third lowest scoring teams in the league) he’s given up just three runs. No team scores less than Tuesday’s opponent Hanwha, as the Eagles are averaging just 3.41 runs per game.

Pick: Samsung Lions -1.5 (-145)

LG and SK Stay Under

Shockingly, the SK Wyverns have been an over machine lately, playing four straight games that have produced a total of at least 10. That’s likely to change on Tuesday, as they’ll face LG and Tyler Wilson. The right-hander has allowed three runs or less in four straight starts, and is fresh off holding the potent KT Wiz offense to one run.

SK will counter with Ricardo Pinto, who’s pitched much better at home than on the road. He’s 3-1 at home with a 2.76 ERA this season, compared to 1-4 with a 7.67 ERA on the road. Games at the Wyverns’ home stadium (Incheon-Munhak) average just 8.71 runs per game, nearly a full run lower than any other park in the league.

Pick: Under 9.5 (-115)

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