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March Madness Odds – Sweet 16 Reassessment

John Benson

by John Benson in News

Mar 24, 2015 · 10:08 AM PDT

If your bracket looks anything like our Commander in Chief’s, you’d probably like a do-over.

The 2015 edition of March Madness has lived up to its moniker with several buzzer beaters, scores of frantic finishes, and myriad bracket busters in the first three rounds.

In the Round of 64, surprises abounded in Thursday action, but chalk ruled the day on Friday.

The Round of 32 was a mixed bag, with one No. 1 seed falling (Obama’s runner-up, Villanova) and two No. 2 seeds biting the dust.

Heading into the Sweet 16, three No. 1 seeds remain, while No. 11 UCLA is the only double-digit seed left in the tourney.

After seeing all the teams in action – twice – it’s time to reassess the odds for the remainder of the tournament. Below, we take a look at each team’s chances of making the Final Four, reaching the championship game, and cutting down the nets in Indy. We also take a look at just how big a favorite Kentucky would be against the other 15 teams, the most and least likely Final Four quartets, and the odds for an all-ACC showdown at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Updated March Madness Odds (Sweet 16):

Odds for each team to win the title:

  • Kentucky: 1/1
  • Duke: 13/2
  • Arizona: 7/1
  • Wisconsin: 10/1
  • Gonzaga: 23/2
  • Michigan State: 14/1
  • Utah: 18/1
  • Louisville: 24/1
  • Oklahoma: 25/1
  • North Carolina: 33/1
  • Notre Dame: 33/1
  • Wichita State: 35/1
  • NC State: 50/1
  • UCLA: 90/1
  • Xavier: 95/1
  • West Virginia: 100/1

Odds for each team to reach the title game:

  • Kentucky: 1/2
  • Duke: 5/2
  • Arizona: 7/2
  • Gonzaga: 4/1
  • Wisconsin: 6/1
  • Michigan State: 11/2
  • Utah: 8/1
  • Louisville: 9/1
  • Oklahoma: 10/1
  • NC State: 18/1
  • Notre Dame: 20/1
  • Wichita State: 20/1
  • North Carolina: 25/1
  • UCLA: 35/1
  • Xavier: 55/1
  • West Virginia: 65/1

Odds for each team to reach the Final Four:

  • Kentucky: 1/4
  • Arizona: 2/3
  • Duke: 6/5
  • Gonzaga: 7/4
  • Wisconsin: 2/1
  • Michigan State: 2/1
  • Louisville: 3/1
  • Oklahoma: 3/1
  • Utah: 4/1
  • NC State: 9/2
  • Notre Dame: 10/1
  • Wichita State: 10/1
  • North Carolina: 11/1
  • UCLA: 12/1
  • Xavier: 18/1
  • West Virginia: 20/1

Odds in a (potential) game vs. Kentucky:

  • Arizona: 9/5
  • Duke: 2/1
  • Wisconsin: 5/2
  • Gonzaga: 7/2
  • North Carolina: 4/1
  • Michigan State: 4/1
  • Notre Dame: 5/1
  • Louisville: 11/2
  • Oklahoma: 11/2
  • Utah: 11/2
  • Wichita State: 6/1
  • West Virginia: 7/1
  • NC State: 15/2
  • Xavier: 8/1
  • UCLA: 12/1

Odds of a UCLA-West Virginia Championship Game (i.e. the biggest longshot on either side of the bracket):

  • 1500/1

Odds of NC State and Duke meeting in the Final Four:

  • 10/1

Odds of Duke, NC State, and Notre Dame (three ACC teams) all reaching the Final Four:

  • 110/1

Odds of Duke, NC State, Notre Dame, and North Carolina (four ACC teams) all reaching the Final Four:

  • 2000/1

Odds of the lowest seeds in each region (NC State, UCLA, Xavier, and Wichita State) all reaching the Final Four:

  • 10000/1

Odds of the top seeds in each region (Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and Oklahoma) all reaching the Final Four:

  • 35/1

Which Final Four has the best odds?

  • Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, and Michigan State (15/1)

Odds of Kentucky winning all six games by double-digits:

  • 50/1

 

 

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