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2019 Manny Machado Props: Expect A Drop Off from Last Season

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in MLB Baseball

Mar 16, 2019 · 7:06 PM PDT

Manny Machado
Manny Machado is a whole lot richer after signing with the San Diego Padres. Photo by Arturo Pardavila III (flickr) [CC License].
  • Manny Machado signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with San Diego in free agency
  • Machado had 37 home runs and 107 RBI last season splitting time between Baltimore and Los Angeles
  • The Padres are still projected to miss the playoffs

Manny Machado is wearing new digs this season after signing a monster 10-year, $300 million deal with the San Diego Padres in free agency. After years of putting up numbers to match that pay day, books are predicting regression across the board in 2019. Before we break down the props, let’s take a quick look at Machado’s recent history.

Manny Machado Season Statistics 2015-2018

Year Runs Home Runs RBI Average
2018 84 37 107 .297
2017 81 33 95 .259
2016 105 37 96 .294
2015 102 35 86 .286

When you couple these numbers with his amazing work in the field, there’s little denying he was worthy of the big pay day. However, just because he’s worth big money doesn’t mean he’s going to blow any props out of the water. Here’s a breakdown of what’s available including the best value plays.

Will Machado Hit For Average In San Diego?

Manny Machado 2019 Batting Average Odds
Over .285 -115
Under .285 -115

*odds taken 3/15

There are a few guarantees in life and one is Machado hitting for average. Big park, small park, theme park – it doesn’t matter. Trust on him to get the job done at the plate in a big way. While taking his talents to San Diego may hurt him slightly in the home run department, it might actually help with his batting average. He’s consistent at the plate, throw out the outlier season in 2017 and trust in Machado to not only hit the over here but clear it by a comfortable margin.

PICK: OVER .285 (-115)

Where Did The Wheels Go?

Manny Machado 2019 Runs Odds
Over 85.5 -115
Under 85.5 -115

There was a point in his career where Machado had speed to burn. Back in 2015 he actually stole 20 bases and was regarded as an above average player on the base paths. Those days are no longer however, as evidence by the bagel he put up in steals one year later in 2016. While runs and steals don’t directly correlate, being good at one certainly helps the other. Machado being a shy runner won’t help him steal the extra few runs needed to get to the over here.

PICK: UNDER 85.5 (-115)

How Many Homers For Manny In 2019?

Manny Machado 2019 Home Runs Odds
Over 33.5 -115
Under 33.5 -115

Machado was in a contract year last season and did well, combining for 37 homers splitting time with the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers. The total tied a career-high and it will be tough getting anywhere near that number in San Diego.

The first reason is simple: the ball park isn’t nearly as friendly as his past home tracks; and second: he doesn’t have much protection in the Padres lineup. While he didn’t have any with the Orioles, he certainly did with the Dodgers, where he crushed 24 home runs in only 96 games. Expect the new surroundings to cause a few too many problems for Machado to reach the over.

PICK: UNDER 33.5 (-115)

Can Machado Drive In 100 Runs Again?

Manny Machado 2019 RBI Odds
Over 99.5 -115
Under 99.5 -115

Machado has reached the 100 RBI mark exactly once in his career, and it was the contract year last season. This is the easiest prop on the board to predict. When betting props, find the value. To find the value, find the side that leaves room for error and here it’s really easy to identify that 99 RBI or less leaves a lot of cushion.

PICK: UNDER 99.5 (-115)

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