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Manny Machado Props: Don’t Count on an MVP Award in 2019

Manny Machado
It remains to be seen where Manny Machado will be playing his trade in 2019. Photo by Ian D'Andrea (Wikimedia Commons)
  • Oddsmakers have released three new props for prized free agent Manny Machado
  • Will Machado equal his career highs from a year ago?
  • Can the four-time All-Star win the first MVP award of his young career?

Oddsmakers can’t seem to agree where free agent infielder Manny Machado will end up in 2019, but there is one thing they’re certain about: he won’t win an MVP trophy.

Oddsmakers have set the odds at -1500 that the four-time All-Star will NOT win his first Most Valuable Player Award next season, regardless of which team he ends up joining.

Those are staggering odds, and they should give any club pursuing Machado reason to pause before forking out $300 million. Let’s take a look at the latest props available for Machado and see where the value lies.

Manny Machado 2019 MVP Odds

Will Manny Machado Win the Regular Season AL or NL MVP in 2019? Odds(01/14/19)
Yes +700
No -1500

The -1500 odds available are surprising considering just how good Machado was in 2018. The Florida native established career-highs in home runs, RBIs, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS, and led the Dodgers on a deep postseason run that culminated in their second straight World Series appearance.

Machado ultimately flamed out against the Red Sox in October, but was easily one of the best players in the Majors during the regular season. That was reflected in his fourth All-Star selection in mid July as well as in the many columns and blog posts that trumpeted his MVP candidacy.

So, why are oddsmakers so down on his chances of winning an MVP award in 2019? The simple answer is they really don’t know where he’s going to end up. Will Machado merit real consideration if he signs with Chicago and the White Sox find themselves 20 games out of first place by August? Will he even be the MVP of his own team if he signs with the Yankees and has to share the limelight with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton?

Machado has never finished in the top three in MVP voting at any point his career.

There’s also the fact that Machado has never finished in the top three in MVP voting at any point his career. The closest he came was in 2015 when he hit .286 with 35 home runs and 86 RBI and led the American League in plate appearances.

You won’t get any value in taking “No” at -1500, but it’s the safe bet for now.

Pick: No 

Manny Machado Total Home Run Odds

How Many Home Runs will Manny Machado Hit During the 2019 Regular Season? Odds (01/14/19)
Over 35.5 -120
Under 35.5 -120

36 home runs would be a herculean feat for most infielders, but it’s well within Machado’s wheelhouse. The 26-year-old has hit 37 dingers twice in the last three seasons and has the power and bat speed to clobber even more in the years ahead.

The one question that remains is where Machado will ply his trade. It’s one thing to hit moonshots in a band box like Oriole Park, where he played from 2012 until 2018, but quite another to hit them in Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. The White Sox’s home field was among the hardest places to hit a home run in 2018, finishing in a tie for 17th place with Fenway Park.

Manny Machado Career Statistics

2012 .262 7 26
2013 .283 14 71
2014 .278 12 32
2015 .286 35 86
2016 .294 37 96
2017 .259 33 95
2018 .297 37 107
AVERAGE .282 19.5 73.2

If Machado signs with Chicago – and that remains an excellent possibility – it could have a significant impact on his power numbers. Take the under, and pray that he ends up on the South Side.

Pick: Under 35.5

Manny Machado Total RBIs Odds

How Many RBIs Will Manny Machado During the 2019 Regular Season? Odds (01/14/19)
Over 95.5 -120
Under 95.5 -120

Machado has shown himself capable of generating more than 96 RBIs in a season, having accomplished the feat twice in the last three years. However, that was on a pair of excellent teams that did a superb job of putting runners on the basepaths.

The first time Machado had 96 RBIs was in 2016, when the Orioles won 89 games and ranked fourth in the Majors in total bases and sixth in OPS. It’s easy to forget, but Baltimore was a talented squad that year. They featured a pair of All-Stars in Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo, as well as some formidable mashers in Adam Jones and Chris Davis.

The second time Machado had 96 RBIs or more was last season when he had a career-high 107 combined with the Orioles and Dodgers. The less said about Baltimore the better, but LA was an offensive juggernaut that ranked fifth in the Majors in onbase percentage, and third in slugging percentage and OPS. Machado benefited greatly from hitting behind a pair of All-Stars in Joc Pederson and Justin Turner.

Until we know for certain who will be hitting in front of Machado it’s prudent to take the under.

Pick: Under 95.5

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