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2019 Nolan Arenado Props: Bet Under 37.5 Total Home Runs

Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado's Colorado Rockies have done their part when it comes to hitting the over, at least in their home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • The Colorado Rockies finished second in the National League West last season with 91 wins.
  • Nolan Arenado led the National League in home runs last season while finishing second in RBI’s.
  • Arenado has cranked at 37 home runs in four straight seasons.

The Colorado Rockies were one of the surprise playoff teams last season as they won 91 games.

One of the keys to their success was All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who led the National League in home runs. As the new season is set to get underway all sorts of performance props on Arenado have gone up. Let’s take a closer look.

2019 Nolan Arenado Stats Last 5 Seasons

Year AVG HR RBI R
2014 .287 18 58 58
2015 .287 42 110 97
2016 .294 41 103 116
2017 .309 37 106 100
2018 .297 38 122 104

 

2019 Nolan Arenado Batting Average

Total Odds
Over .295 -115
Under .295 -115

Batting Average

Taking a look at the batting average prop, we’re look at .296 for Arenado if you want to hit the over. It’s a mark he’s made in each of the last two seasons and he just missed in 2016 with a .294.

The challenge with Arenado is that 2017 – when he batted .309 – seems like an outlier. If you remove that number, he’s batted, .297, .294, .287 and .287 in his previous campaigns. On the positive side, though, he’s now 27 years old and is entering his prime.

Taking a look at his FanGraphs projections – THE BAT, ATC, Depth Charts, Streamer, Fans (20) and ZiPS – all but one of them has him finishing at .294 or lower. I’ll follow their lead in this spot.

The Pick: Under .295 (-115)

2019 Nolan Arenado Home Runs

Total Odds
Over 37.5 -115
Under 37.5 -115

Total Home Runs

Arenado led the National League in home runs last year, cranking 38 out the park. Hot on his heels was teammate Trevor Story, who had 37. The question here is can Arenado – facing a total of 37.5 – get over that number again.

History shows us that 37.5 shouldn’t be a problem. This is a player who has hit no less than 37 in four straight campaigns, crushing 38, 37, 41 and 42 in each of the last four seasons. He’s averaged 40 home runs and 126 RBI’s in that span.

He’s in one of the most power-friendly environments at Coors Field, so why expect much of a drop-off? I would bet the over for home runs.

The Pick: OVer 37.5 HR (-115)

2019 Nolan Arenado RBIs

Total Odds
Over 110.5 -115
Under 110.5 -115

Total Runs Batted In

Arenado is facing an RBI total of 110.5 and this seems low considering what he’s done the last few seasons. As mentioned, he’s averaged 126 RBI’s over his last four campaigns, putting up 110, 130, 133 and 130.

However, this is a number that I’ll be looking at for the under. Manager Bud Black stated that he’s looking to bat Arenado second, which would put him behind Charlie Blackmon and ahead of Daniel Murphy. Arenado has never really batted anywhere other than third. Batting second would drop his RBI output.

Secondly, PECOTA projections have both the Rockies and Arenado slipping a bit with PECOTA expecting Arenado to be just shy of 100 RBI’s this season. The lineup isn’t set in stone but if he’s starting the year in the No. 2 slot.

The Pick: Under 110.5 RBI (-115)

2019 Nolan Arenado Runs Scored

Total Odds
Over 100.5 -115
Under 100.5 -115

Total Runs Scored

Lastly, we’re looking at 100.5 runs scored for Arenado, which is right about what he averages. He’s produced 104, 100, 116 and 97 runs in his last four seasons. However, FanGraphs projections mostly him under 101, so I’m going to side with that.

The Pick: Under 100.5 runs scored (-115)

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