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2019 MLB Season Props: Stolen Base Over/Unders for 23 Players

Trea Turner
There are few players faster than Trea Turner. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • Adalberto Mondesi stole 32 bases in only 75 games last year
  • Trea Turner led the National League with 43 steals last year
  • No player reached 50 stolen bases for the first time since 2012

Books have released statistical projections for the 2019 Major League Season. We’ve already examined their 2019 MLB ERA Over/Unders and 2019 MLB RBI Over/Unders, and now it’s time to turn our attention to their stolen base totals. There are some great lines on the board.

2019 Stolen Base Projections & Odds

Player 2018 Stolen Base Total 2019 Stolen Base Projection Over Odds Under Odds
Adalberto Mondesi 32 44.5 -115 -115
Trea Turner 43 43.5 -115 -115
Billy Hamilton 34 41.5 -115 -115
Mallex Smith 40 38.5 -115 -115
Dee Gordon 30 37.5 -115 -115
Mookie Betts 30 27.5 -115 -115
Mike Trout 24 23.5 -115 -115
Jose Altuve 17 23.5 -115 -115
Francisco Lindor 25 20.5 -115 -115
Trevor Story 27 20.5 -115 -115

Odds taken on 03/04/19 .

There’s lots to digest with all the options available. Here are my four favorite bets on the board.

Mondesi is the New Stolen Base King

Adalberto Mondesi has the highest line of any player, set at 44.5 stolen bases. It may look like a large number but for anyone who has seen the Kansas City Royals speedster run, it’s actually low. Don’t let the 2018 stolen base total of 32 fool you, he did that in only 75 games last year.

His OBP was only .306 so that’ll need to improve to get him more opportunities, but even if it hovers around the same number, he’s overwhelmingly likely to not only go over the number, but lead the entire league.

Pick: Mondesi Over 44.5 (-115)

Will Betts Keep Running for the Red Sox?

Mookie Betts had a career high 30 stolen bases last year and his line is set at 27.5 steals. Before you make a snap judgement and take the over, I’d suggest you proceed with caution. In the three previous seasons, Betts stole 26, 26, and 21 bags.

Is 30 steals an outlier or would you prefer to make the argument Betts simply established a new level next year and he’ll hit it again? For my money, I’ll look at history and three of the last four seasons you’d need to bet the under to win coin, so that’s where the money needs to go.

Pick: Betts Under 27.5 (-115)

Look for Trout to Run in 2019

The next time I bet the under in any bet involving Mike Trout will be the first time I bet the under in a bet involving Mike Trout. Over the past three years Trout has averaged 25 steals per year, which would clear the total set at 23.5. That evidence alone could be enough to sprinkle action on the over but I’m relying on instinct here as well.

Rumors are swirling about the next big Trout deal after the contracts signed by Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and something tells me he’ll be out to put up monster numbers in 2019.

Pick: Trout Over 23.5 (-115)

Altuve Looking to Rebound for Astros

Jose Altuve tallied at least 30 steals for six straight years before a disappointing, injury plagued 2018 saw him finish with only 17. After undergoing a knee procedure will he be more cautious on the base paths or is he destined to rebound?

The vote here is Altuve will look more like the mega star from 2012-2017 than the muted version of a middle infielder who played last year. One other reason to like the over, they’ve built in so much cushion: 23.5 seems incredibly low for a player who has had as many as 56 steals in a season, doesn’t it?

Pick: Altuve Over 23.5 (-115)

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