MLB Player Award Futures Odds – MVP, CY Young, and Rookie of the Year Favorites on Opening Day
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The 2021 MLB season starts on April 1st and will consist of the usual 162 regular-season games, if all goes according to plan
- Oddsmakers and bettors have had a couple months to set the market for the six main player-award odds
- See who is favored in the preseason futures for MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year before Opening Day
The 2021 MLB season starts Thursday, April 1st, with all 30 teams in action.
Sportsbooks have had player-award futures open for a couple months and sharps have had a chance to put their money down and move the odds.
The tables below show the odds to win AL and NL MVP, AL and NL Cy Young, and AL and NL Rookie of the Year on the eve of Opening Day.
AL and NL MVP Odds
| AL Players | Odds | Odds | NL Players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +225 | +750 | Mookie Betts (LAD) |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | +1200 | +750 | Juan Soto (WSH) |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +1200 | +800 | Ronald Acuna (ATL) |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | +1200 | +800 | Cody Bellinger (LAD) |
| Matt Chapman (OAK) | +1500 | +850 | Fernando Tatis Jr (SD) |
| Anthony Rendon (LAA) | +1500 | +1200 | Nolan Arenado (STL) |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | +2000 | +1200 | Freddie Freeman (ATL) |
| Jose Abreu (CHW) | +2500 | +1200 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) |
| Tim Anderson (CHW) | +2500 | +1200 | Christian Yelich (MIL) |
| Vlad Guerrero Jr (TOR) | +2500 | +1500 | Bryce Harper (PHI) |
| Yoan Moncada (CHW) | +2500 | +1500 | Corey Seager (LAD) |
| Luis Robert (CHW) | +2500 | +2200 | Manny Machado (SD) |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | +2500 | +2500 | Trevor Story (COL) |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | +3000 | +3000 | Ozzie Albies (ATL) |
| Yasmani Grandal (CHW) | +3000 | +3000 | Kris Bryant (CHC) |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | +3300 | +3000 | Ketel Marte (ARI) |
| Xander Bogaerts (BOS) | +3300 | +3000 | JT Realmuto (PHI) |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | +3300 | +3000 | Anthony Rizzo (CHC) |
| George Springer (TOR) | +3300 | +3300 | Pete Alonso (NYM) |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | +4000 | +3300 | Javy Baez (CHC) |
Odds as of March 30th at DraftKings.
For the 35th straight season, Mike Trout is the AL MVP favorite on day one. Alex Bregman, Aaron Judge, and Jose Ramirez are tied for a distant second. In terms of probability, Trout’s +225 odds give him a 30.8% implied probability (“IP”). The +1200 odds for the trio of second-favorites carry an IP of just 7.7%, meaning the betting market says Trout is about four-times as likely to win MVP as any other player in the AL.
The NL odds are much tighter, with five players between +750 and +850. Two have won MVPs before (Betts and Bellinger). Betts also finished second last year.
Curiously, Freddie Freeman, who took home 28 of 30 first-place votes in 2020, trails at +1200.
[crossspost]AL and NL Cy Young Odds
| AL Players | Odds | Odds | NL Players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole (NYY) | +350 | +425 | Jacob deGrom (NYM) |
| Shane Bieber (CLE) | +400 | +700 | Trevor Bauer (LAD) |
| Lucas Giolito (CHW) | +450 | +950 | Max Scherzer (WSH) |
| Tyler Glasnow (TB) | +950 | +1000 | Walker Buehler (LAD) |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR) | +1300 | +1200 | Yu Darvish (SD) |
| Jose Berrios (MIN) | +1700 | +1200 | Aaron Nola (PHI) |
| Lance Lynn (CHW) | +1700 | +1200 | Blake Snell (SD) |
| Kenta Maeda (MIN) | +1700 | +1500 | Luis Castillo (CIN) |
| Corey Kluber (NYY) | +1800 | +1500 | Jack Flaherty (STL) |
| Dallas Keuchel (CHW) | +2200 | +1700 | Max Fried (ATL) |
| Marco Gonzales (SEA) | +2500 | +2000 | Clayton Kershaw (LAD) |
| Jesus Luzardo (OAK) | +2500 | +2000 | Stephen Strasburg (WSH) |
| Luis Severino (NYY) | +3000 | +2200 | Charlie Morton (ATL) |
| Zack Greinke (HOU) | +3300 | +2200 | Brandon Woodruff (MIL) |
| Andrew Heaney (LAA) | +3300 | +2500 | Dinelson Lamet (SD) |
| Nate Pearson (TOR) | +3300 | +2800 | Patrick Corbin (WSH) |
| Frankie Montas (OAK) | +3500 | +3000 | German Marquez (COL) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) | +3500 | +3000 | Michael Soroka (ATL) |
| Dylan Bundy (LAA) | +4000 | +3300 | Sonny Gray (CIN) |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | +4000 | +3300 | Sixto Sanchez (MIA) |
Odds as of March 30th at DraftKings.
The AL Cy Young odds see the two most-obvious candidates at the top in Cole and Bieber. Bieber won unanimously last season and Cole lost a razor-close race to Justin Verlander the year before.
Close behind is young Lucas Giolito, who’s never finished higher than sixth in Cy Young voting.
The NL odds are telling recency to take a hike. Jacob deGrom is considerably shorter than anyone else despite finishing third last season with zero first-place votes. At +425, the 2018 and 2019-winner has an IP of 19.1%. Reigning Cy Young-winner Trevor Bauer has odds of +700, which is just a 12.5% IP.
AL and NL Rookie of the Year Odds
| AL Players | Odds | Odds | NL Players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | +350 | +350 | Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT) |
| Wander Franco (TB) | +1000 | +500 | Sixto Sanchez (MIA) |
| Jarred Kelenic (SEA) | +1000 | +700 | Dylan Carlson (STL) |
| Andrew Vaughn (CHW) | +1100 | +750 | Ian Anderson (ATL) |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | +1200 | +1200 | Nick Lodolo (CIN) |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | +1200 | +1200 | Cristian Pache (ATL) |
| Bobby Dalbec (BOS) | +1500 | +1500 | Joey Bart (SF) |
| Casey Mize (DET) | +1500 | +1800 | Spencer Howard (PHI) |
| Nate Pearson (TOR) | +1500 | +1800 | Tyler Stephenson (CIN) |
| Garrett Crochet (CHW) | +1800 | +1800 | Ha-Seong Kim (SD) |
| Luis Patino (TB) | +1800 | +2000 | MacKenzie Gore (SD) |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | +2000 | +2200 | Miguel Amaya (CHC) |
| Nick Madrigal (CHW) | +2000 | +2200 | Seth Beer (ARI) |
| Brendan McKay (TB) | +2000 | +3000 | Jazz Chisholm (MIA) |
| Triston McKenzie (CLE) | +2000 | +3000 | Adonis Medina (PHI) |
| Bobby Bradley (CLE) | +2200 | +3000 | Seth Romero (WSH) |
| Deivi Garcia (NYY) | +2200 | +3300 | Lewin Diaz (MIA) |
| Nolan Jones (CLE) | +2500 | +3300 | Josiah Gray (LAD) |
| Michael Kopech (CHW) | +2500 | +3300 | Pavin Smith (ARI) |
| Taylor Trammell (SEA) | +2500 | +3500 | JJ Bleday (MIA) |
Odds as of March 30th at DraftKings.
The Rookie of the Year odds in both leagues have relatively short favorites for notoriously hard-to-predict awards. But that’s somewhat justified this season. Both Randy Arozarena and Ke’Bryan Hayes already have a track record of success at the major-league level, though still qualify as rookies.
Arozarena took the postseason by storm in 2020, setting new MLB records for home runs, hits, and total bases in a single playoffs.
Hayes actually received some ROY votes last year despite only playing in 24 games for the Pirates. Why? Because he hit a preposterous .376 with five homers, seven doubles, and 11 RBI in just 85 at-bats.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
