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MLB All Star Game Odds, Picks, Rosters, and How to Bet AL vs NL

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Jul 12, 2021 · 5:14 PM PDT

San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. celebrates with shortstop Jake Cronenworth
San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) celebrates with shortstop Jake Cronenworth (9) after a 6-0 win over the Colorado Rockies after a game at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado on August 31, 2020. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)
  • The 2021 MLB All Star Game takes place on Tuesday, July 13th, at 7:30 pm ET in Denver, CO
  • The odds slightly favor the National League, while the betting trends favor with the American League
  • See the moneyline, over/under, and best bet, below

The 2021 Major League Baseball All Star Game is scheduled for Tuesday evening (7:30 pm ET) at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. Both rosters are replete with replacements after 11 players opted to sit out.

The NL’s would-be starting pitcher, Jacob deGrom, is among those staying home. The matchup on the mound will start with Max Scherzer (2.66 ERA, 0.878 WHIP) vs two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani (3.49 ERA, 1.209 WHIP), who will also be batting leadoff for the AL in an All Star Game first.

The odds are currently skewed in favor of the National League by a hair.

2021 MLB All Star Game Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total at
DraftKings
American League +100 -1.5 (+150) O 11.0 (-104)
National League -115 +1.5 (-180) U 11.0 (-118)

Odds as of July 12.

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The total is unusually high for anĀ  MLB All Star Game. Going back 15 years to 2006, the All Star Game has seen an average of just 6.86 runs per game. One side has been held to a single run (or fewer) on five occasions in that span.

Only one game since 2006 has surpassed 11 runs; that came in 2018, when the AL won an 8-6 decision in ten innings.

The inflated total is not an irrational mistake by oddsmakers, though. This year’s game is at Coors Field in Denver’s rarified, mile-high air. The only other ASG to take place at Coors (1998) ended 13-8 for the AL and remains the highest-scoring ASG in MLB history.

Final ASG Rosters

AL Position Position NL
Sal Perez (KC)* C C JT Realmuto (PHI)*
Mike Zunino (TB) C C Omar Narvaez (MIL)
Vlad Guerrero Jr (TOR)* 1B 1B Freddie Freeman (ATL)*
Matt Olson (OAK) 1B 1B Max Muncy (LAD)*
Jared Walsh (LAA) 1B 2B Adam Frazier (PIT)*
Marcus Semien (TOR)* 2B 2B Ozzie Albies (ATL)
Whit Merrifield (KC) 2B 2B Jake Cronenworth (SD)
Xander Bogaerts (BOS)* SS SS Fernando Tatis Jr (SD)*
Bo Bichette (TOR) SS SS Brandon Crawford (SF)
Tim Anderson (CHW) SS SS Trea Turner (WAS)
Rafael Devers (BOS)* 3B 3B Nolan Arenado (STL)*
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 3B 3B Kris Bryant (CHC)
Joey Wendle (TB) 3B 3B Eduardo Escobar (ARI)
Aaron Judge (NYY)* OF 3B Manny Machado (SD)
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR)* OF 3B Justin Turner (LAD)
Joey Gallo (TEX) OF OF Nick Castellanos (CIN)*
Adolis Garcia (TEX) OF OF Jesse Winker (CIN)*
Cedric Mullins (BAL)* OF OF Bryan Reynolds (PIT)*
JD Martinez (BOS) DH OF Juan Soto (WAS)
Nelson Cruz (MIN) DH OF Chris Taylor (LAD)
Shohei Ohtani (LAA)* DH/P P Walker Buehler (LAD)
Matt Barnes (BOS) P P Corbin Burnes (MIL)
Chris Bassitt (OAK) P P Josh Hader (MIL)
Aroldis Chapman (NYY) P P Craig Kimbrel (CHC)
Gerrit Cole (NYY) P P German Marquez (COL)
Nathan Eovaldi (BOS) P P Mark Melancon (SD)
Kyle Gibson (TEX) P P Freddy Peralta (MIL)
Liam Hendricks (CHW) P P Alex Reyes (STL)
Yusei Kikuchi (SEA) P P Trevor Rogers (MIA)
Lance Lynn (CHW) P P Max Scherzer (WAS)
Carlos Rodon (CHW) P P Taijuan Walker (NYM)
Gregory Soto (DET) P P Zack Wheeler (PHI)

*Denotes player in the starting lineup.

Trends Heavily Favor the AL (But Who Cares?)

The American League has absolutely dominated the recent ASG history. They are 25-6-1 since 1998 and have won seven in a row dating back to 2013. Location has not made a difference. Five of their seven most-recent wins have come in NL ballparks.

When the NL has managed to pick up Ws in the Midsummer Classic, it’s been on the strength of its pitching. From 2010 to 2012, the National League rattled off three straight wins while allowing just two total runs over 27 innings, including an 8-0 shutout in 2012.

Best Bet

The fact that the AL has dominated recently shouldn’t have much of an impact on handicapping the 2021 edition. This game will feature plenty of first-time All Stars playing in a game that means nothing.

The biggest concern for me is how many of the NL’s top-tier pitchers bowed out. Unquestionably the most-dominant hurler in the game today, deGrom will be sorely missed in the first couple innings. But deGrom is just the tip of the iceberg. Brandon Woodruff (second in the NL Cy Young odds), Kevin Gausman (fourth), and Yu Darvish (sixth) aren’t playing either.

The NL’s staff is now spearheaded by Scherzer, Corbin Burnes (who’s been tailing off since a torrid start), Walker Buehler, and Zack Wheeler.

After Ohtani, the AL’s staff features Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Carlos Rodon, and Gerrit Cole, who sit first through fourth in the league in ERA. They will be without reigning Cy Young-winner Shane Bieber, but it’s clear whose staff has been hit harder by departures.

Looking at the lineups, there’s massive power on both sides, obviously. But the edge here goes to the AL, slightly. Nine of the top-15 MLB OPS leaders reside on the AL roster, and all nine will be suiting up (Guerrero Jr, Ohtani, Olson, Cruz, Bogaerts, Martinez, Gallo, Mullins, Devers).

That only leaves the NL with six of the MLB’s top-15 OPS leaders, and only five of them will be in the lineup on Tuesday (Tatis Jr, Muncy, Castellanos, Winker, Crawford). The sixth, Acuna Jr, tore his ACL on Saturday, sadly ending his entire 2021 season.

At the end of the day, I can’t see any reason for the National League to be favored here. They don’t have the pitching advantage they would if their lineup was intact and they don’t bring quite the same level of power as their AL counterparts to home-run-friendly Coors Field.

Pick: American League (+100)

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