Angels vs Padres Odds, Lines, and Picks (Sep. 7)
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The San Diego Padres are -380 favorites over the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday (September 7th, 10:10 pm ET)
- San Diego will give the ball to Blake Snell (7-5, 4.31 ERA), while Los Angeles will counter with Packy Naughton (0-1, 4.00 ERA)
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
The final full month of the regular season promises to be a nail biting time for Padres fans. San Diego enters play Tuesday (September 7th) just one game ahead of Cincinnati, and two games clear of Philadelphia for the NL’s final Wild Card berth. The Padres haven’t advanced to the postseason since 2006, and with two teams nipping at their heels, they cannot afford to lose games they’re comfortably favored in.
Angels vs Padres Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | +290 | +1.5 (+160) | O 8 (+100) |
| San Diego Padres | -380 | -1.5 (-190) | U 8 (-120) |
Odds as of September 7th at DraftKings.
One of those contests will take place tonight, as San Diego host the LA Angels at Petco Park. The Padres are massive -380 favorites, in a game that features a total of 8.
First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 pm ET, and the forecast calls for clear skies, with 70 degree night time temperatures.
Probable Pitchers
The main reason San Diego is such an overwhelming favorite is the pitching matchup. The Padres will send former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to the mound, while LA will counter with rookie Packy Naughton.
Naughton vs Snell
| 0-1 | Record | 7-5 |
| 4.00 | ERA | 4.31 |
| 1.78 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| .289 | OBA | .223 |
| 0.8 | SO/W Ratio | 2.4 |
Snell has had an inconsistent season to date, but has pitched phenomenally over the past month. He’s been especially dominant lately, and is fresh off seven innings of shutout ball against Arizona. The left-hander didn’t allow a hit to the Diamondbacks, striking out 10 en route to a 3-0 victory.
Over his last 6 starts Blake Snell has allowed 7 runs, 19 hits, and has recorded 54 Strikeouts pic.twitter.com/UuDgoXsJQH
— OldTimeHardball (@OleTimeHardball) September 4, 2021
He was nearly as sharp in the start prior, scattering just three hits over 7.2 innings, while holding the defending champion Dodgers to one run. Snell has surrendered two runs or less in five of his past six outings, posting 54 strikeouts along the way. He’s peaking at precisely the right time, and a date with the Angels isn’t exactly imposing on paper.
LA is fresh off a shutout defeat, and has plated three or fewer runs in four of its past five contests. They posted season lows in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS in the month of August, and perform worse in each of those categories on the road than at home.
Twin Valley’s A.J. Alexy has a one-hit shutout over 6 IP vs Angels; Rangers lead 2-0.
— Mike Drago (@MDrago59) September 7, 2021
Naughton meanwhile, will make just his second career big league start, after lasting 3.2 innings last time out versus the Yankees. The soft tossing lefty surrendered three runs and six hits to the Bronx Bombers, and is yielding a .289 batting average to enemy hitters through three appearances this season. One of those outing was against San Diego a week and a half ago, and it ended with Naughton allowing three hits and two runs to the Padres over 4.1 innings.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Angels Batters | Batting Average vs Snell | Padres Batters | Batting Average vs Naughton |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Fletcher | .333 | Jake Cronenworth | .333 |
| Shohei Ohtani | .667 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | .000 |
| Max Stassi | .200 | Manny Machado | .500 |
| Kurt Suzuki | .000 | Trent Grisham | .000 |
| Luis Rengifo | .000 | Eric Hosmer | .000 |
| —- | — | Jake Marisnick | .000 |
| — | — | Ha-Seong Kim | .000 |
| — | — | Austin Nola | .500 |
Naughton was not a coveted prospect, and it’s a bit of a surprise he’s actually starting big league games. He posted an ERA above 4.75 in both AA and AAA this season, and hasn’t had a K/9 rate above 8.77 since he pitched in rookie ball in 2017. The low strikeout rate has followed him to the Majors, as he currently has more walks (5) than strikeouts (4) on his resume.
Angels vs Padres Pick
San Diego’s lineup has produced 14 runs in its last two games, and should feast on Naughton. There’s no value on the Padres moneyline or runline over the course of 9 innings, but there’s a case to be made for targeting their runline over the first 5 innings.
https://twitter.com/justgroc/status/1434655844403228673
Snell is absolutely dealing right now and we should expect that to continue, especially early on against LA’s struggling bats. Naughton hasn’t shown he’s Major League ready yet, and should struggle versus a lineup as potent as San Diego’s.
Any bet made for this contest should focus on a timeframe when the Angles are most vulnerable, and that will be when Naughton is in the game.
Pick: Padres -1 First 5 innings (-140)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
