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Astros, Dodgers, Yankees All Projected for 99.5 Wins at All-Star Break; Which Powerhouse Is the Best Value?

Yankees players walking from the bullpen
The New York Yankees, along with the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, have the highest regular season win total on the board at 99.5. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros and New York Yankees have updated win totals of 99.5
  • The Philadelphia Phillies are just 14-19 in their last 33 games
  • The Baltimore Orioles are on pace for 49 wins but their regular season win total is 54.5

Online sportsbooks have posted a fun prop at the All-Star break as they’re offering regular season win totals once again. Now that we know how the teams have fared and their current records, let’s take a look at the betting lines and see where there’s some value on the board.

2019 Regular Season Win Totals: Top-Ten

Team Over Odds Under Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers Over 99.5 -115 Under 99.5 -105
New York Yankees Over 99.5 -110 Under 99.5 -110
Houston Astros Over 99.5 -110 Under 99.5 -110
Minnesota Twins Over 94.5 -115 Under 94.5 -105
Atlanta Braves Over 90.5 -115 Under 90.5 -105
Boston Red Sox Over 90.5 -105 Under 90.5 -115
Cleveland Indians Over 88.5 -110 Under 88.5 -110
Chicago Cubs Over 86.5 -110 Under 86.5 -110
Washington Nationals Over 86.5 -110 Under 86.5 -110
Oakland Athletics Over 84.5 -115 Under 84.5 -105

Astros, Yankees, Dodgers Listed At 99.5

The three teams with the highest numbers are the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers. Not surprisingly, these are the three teams that are at the top of the board in terms of the odds to win the World Series.

Of the three, the Dodgers figure to be the best bet. When you take a look at the divisions, the Dodgers are clearly in the easiest one. The Astros are contending with three teams above .500 and a fourth who is 45-46. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ division is stocked with two other teams that have 49 wins or more.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have to deal with four other teams who are in and around .500, but all are could be sellers at the trade deadline. And as we know with the Dodgers, they’re bound to add a piece or two at the deadline.

2019 Regular Season Win Totals

Team Over Odds Under Odds
Philadelphia Phillies Over 82.5 -110 Under 82.5 -110

Fade The Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies won the offseason when they signed Bryce Harper and acquired Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, and J.T. Realmuto. However, that hasn’t translated into success on the field, at least not since McCutchen was lost for the season. At the break, they’re just 47-43. However, it’s important to note the trajectory of the team.

The Phillies were 33-22 on May 29th but are just 14-19 since. The biggest concern is their pitching staff, which ranks 19th in team ERA on the season but was 28th in the category in June. Meanwhile, the offense isn’t delivering as they are just 14th in runs scored (were 20th in June), 17th in average, and 18th in OPS.

After blowing their bank in the offseason, this team won’t be buyers at the deadline. Their regular season win total now sits at 82.5 and I’d bet under.

2019 Regular Season Win Totals

Team Over Odds Under Odds
Baltimore Orioles Over 54.5 -110 Under 54.5 -110

Go Under With Baltimore

Another team that’s worth a look at the under is the Orioles, who are facing a regular-season win total of 54.5. They’re a pathetic 27-62 with a .303 winning percentage. If they maintain that winning percentage, they’ll end up with 49 wins.

What’s worse for the O’s is that they’re in a division with three teams vying for playoff spots. With the Yankees, Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, they’re going to get beat up on quite a bit. They’re just 13-26 against the division, which is slightly above their season-long winning percentage, but even that winning percentage isn’t good enough to get them to 55 wins.

FanGraphs originally projected this team to finish with 54.5 wins but they’ve been nowhere near that pace. I see no reason why things get better for them, so I’m going under the number here.

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