In Battle of Bullpens, Astros Open as -141 Favorites vs Yankees in ALCS Game 6 – Picks & Odds

• Both the New York Yankees and Houston Astros will opt for bullpen games in Game 6 of the ALCS on Saturday
• The Yankees were the second-best bullpen during the MLB regular season with a 50 saves and a 7.5 WAR
• The Astros’ bullpen was sixth in saves (47) and eighth in WAR (4.3)

As he prepared to face the New York Yankees in Game 5 of the ALCS, Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander suggested the toughest game to win in the postseason is the second start of a series.

Much to his chagrin, Verlander was proven correct. The Bronx Bombers lit him up for four runs in the first inning, enough to fashion a 4-1 win and stay alive in the ALCS. Houston still leads this best-of-seven 3-2.

As the teams return to Houston’s Minute Maid Park, Game 6 figures to be anyone’s game. Both teams are opting to throw a bullpen game and save their aces (Gerrit Cole for the Astros; Luis Severino for the Yankees) to start a potential Game 7.

Even though statistically the Yankees had the better bullpen this season, the Astros are still the -141 chalk in the Yankees vs Astros Game 6 odds.

Astros vs Yankees Game 6 ALCS Odds

*Odds taken 10/19/19.

In MLB postseason history, teams leading a best-of-seven series 3-2 have won on 72 of 103 occasions (70 %). Under the current 2-3-2 format, teams coming home with a 3-2 edge are 34-of-45 (76%).

History Was Made

Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig never did it. Neither did Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris. In fact, in the storied history of the Yankees, until Game 5 of this series, the team had never clouted two home runs in the first inning of a post-season game.

The long ball has been 21-game winner Verlander’s nemesis all season long, and it bit him deep again.

With the Yankees trailing 1-0, DJ Lemahieu took Verlander’s second offering of the game over the fence. Later in the inning, Aaron Hicks clubbed a 3-2 pitch off the right-field foul pole for a three-run homer.

In Games 3 and 4, New York left the bases loaded in the first inning against Cole and Zack Greinke, and ended up losing both games.

Bullpen Edge For Yankees?

While other contenders stockpiled starting pitching in the MLB arms race – Houston, for example, acquired Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks – the Yankees opted to invest in their bullpen. They put $152 million into free-agent relievers Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino.

Adam Ottavino now has four appearances this postseason in which he did not record an out: most in a single postseason in @MLB history.

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) October 18, 2019

It was supposed to be their ace in the hole, the one distinct advantage New York held over Houston.

So far, that hasn’t been the case.

Although the bullpen didn’t surrender a run in three innings of work in Game 5, they’ve done plenty of damage over the course of this series.

🚨 CARLOS CORREA SAID SEE YOU IN THE BRONX 🚨

WALK-OFF HOME RUN TO WIN GAME 2

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/XBSHGWMXx4

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 14, 2019

The Yankees’ bullpen surrendered eight runs in Houston’s three wins in Games 2, 3 and 4. JA Happ served up a walk-off homer in Game 2. Adam Ottavino, who posted a 1.90 ERA during the regular season, has failed to retire a batter in four of seven post-season appearances. Chad Green was tagged for a three-run dinger in Game 4.

Urquidy Key For Astros

Houston originally intended to hand the ball to rookie right-hander, Jose Urquidy, as an opener in Game 4, but when rain wiped out that game the Astros opted to go with Greinke instead.

Urquidy was 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA this season in nine appearances, seven of them starts.

Green will get the opening nod for the Yankees. He opened 15 games this season. The Yankees were 11-4 in those games.

Pick: New York Yankees (+131).