Astros vs Padres Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (Sep. 4)
By Quinn Allen in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Astros and Padres continue their four-game set on Saturday night
- San Diego is a -120 home favorite with Joe Musgrove on the mound against his former team
- Find the odds, preview, and pick below
The Houston Astros (78-55, 37-30 away) and San Diego Padres (71-63, 41-29 home) meet on Saturday evening in the second of a four-game series at Petco Park. First-pitch is set for 8:40 PM EST. The Padres have won five of the last seven against the Astros. Houston came out victorious on Friday though thanks to home runs from Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker.
It will be the battle of two quality arms, with lefty Framber Valdez taking the bump for Houston, while Joe Musgrove gets the ball for San Diego following his complete-game shutout last Friday.
Astros vs Padres Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | +100 | -1.5 (+175) | Ov 7.5 (-115) |
| San Diego Padres | -120 | +1.5 (-210) | Un 7.5 (-105) |
Odds as of September 3rd at DraftKings.
Probable Pitchers
Valdez has been an absolute mainstay for Houston this season, posting a rotation-best 2.91 ERA in 17 starts while also going 9-4. His command has been slightly concerning with 43 walks in 105 innings, but it hasn’t necessarily affected his ability to pitch deep into ballgames. In fact, Valdez has gone at least six innings in seven of his last eight outings. In his most recent start, the southpaw took home the win after pitching seven frames of two-run baseball against the Texas Rangers. He also struck out seven hitters.
Framber Valdez, Filthy Curveballs. 😷 #BendTheKnee pic.twitter.com/8RV4W84dpe
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 18, 2021
The Dominican has already faced the Padres once in 2021, going four innings and allowing a mere one run. That was his only outing vs. San Diego though in his career. It’s not much of a sample size to base anything off, but their batting is just .100 off Valdez. He pitches better against National League opponents as well, compiling a 2.40 ERA.
Valdez vs Musgrove
| 9-4 | Record | 9-8 |
| 2.91 | ERA | 2.85 |
| 105.0 | Innings Pitched | 148.1 |
| 99 | SO | 169 |
| 43 | BB | 37 |
Amid all San Diego’s injuries within their pitching staff, Musgrove has been a clear bright spot. The righty also has the best ERA in their rotation at 2.85 and has tossed a team-high 148.1 innings. The 28-year-old put together a fine outing in his most recent game, shutting down the Angels as he threw nine innings of scoreless baseball. It was his second complete game of the season after pitching a no-hitter earlier this year.
Joe Musgrove, Dirty 82mph Curveball. 😨
And, both De La Cruz and Musgrove know it. pic.twitter.com/QmBSzptui2
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2021
Musgrove has also been a strikeout machine, racking up 169 K’s while walking just 37 batters. His 0.98 WHIP is one of the best in the Majors as well. Musgrove has faced the Astros already in 2021, going five innings and giving up zero runs. In 11.1 career innings against them, he actually has a 0.00 ERA. On top of that, the right-hander has a ridiculous 0.31 ERA vs. American League opponents this season in four games. Talk about utterly dominant.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Padres Hitters | Average vs Valdez |
|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth | .000 |
| Adam Frazier | .000 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | .000 |
| Manny Machado | .000 |
| Wil Myers | .000 |
| Austin Nola | .000 |
| Tommy Pham | .1000 |
| Jurickson Profar | .000 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr | .000 |
| Astros Hitters | Average vs Musgrove |
| Jose Altuve | .400 |
| Yordan Alvarez | .000 |
| Michael Brantley | .286 |
| Alex Bregman | .000 |
| Carlos Correa | .000 |
| Yuli Gurriel | .667 |
| Martin Maldonado | .250 |
| Kyle Tucker | .000 |
Houston broke a two-game losing skid on Friday after dropping two of three to the Mariners earlier in the week. They still hold a 5.5 game lead over the Oakland Athletics in the American League West though and their upcoming matchups should be no problem. Following this Padres series, the Astros face the Mariners again, the Angels, and Texas. They usually have no problem giving Valdez enough run support, but it’s important to note that Houston is just 7-8 in interleague play this season.
Kyle Tucker understood the assignment👑#ForTheH pic.twitter.com/gqnIWhYcXa
— Houston Astros (@astros) September 4, 2021
San Diego continues to slide at the worst possible time. They’ve now lost two in a row and are just 3-7 in their last 10 contests. At this point, the Wild Card is their only hope at making the postseason, with the Cincinnati Reds just half a game ahead of them for the final spot. In Friday’s loss, the Padres stranded eight base runners and struggled to capitalize offensively.
Astros vs Padres Prediction
With two fantastic pitchers going head to head here, this should be a close game. Both guys have been extremely consistent all season for their ballclubs, with Musgrove posting a 2.36 ERA at Petco Park. However, Valdez has had absolutely no problems pitching on the road, either. That being said, the “Under” in runs likely offers the most value here.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
Sports Writer
Quinn Allen is a sports journalist, with a background and education in broadcast journalism (BCIT '17). He is a full-time associate editor at ClutchPoints by day, where he writes about soccer, baseball, basketball, football, and more. At night, Quinn is a frequent contributor at SBD.
