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Astros vs Phillies Game 4 Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Nov 1, 2022 · 8:58 PM PDT

Astros vs Phillies Game 4 Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers
Nov 1, 2022; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Brandon Marsh (16) and designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) high five following their team’s 7-0 victory against the Houston Astros in game three of the 2022 World Series at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Houston Astros are set as -115 away favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the World Series on Wednesday, November 2
  • Philadelphia is 6-0 straight up and against the runline at home in the MLB postseason
  • See the Game 4 Astros vs Phillies odds and predictions as Philadelphia looks to take a 3-1 stranglehold

Historically, Game 4 of the World Series has not proven kind to the Philadelphia Phillies (11-3, 6-0 home) or Houston Astros (8-2, 3-1 away). Philadelphia is 1-6 straight up in seven Game 4 scenarios. Houston is 1-3 SU in Game 4.

Home cooking continues to be brewing up a winning recipe for the Phillies. The #6 seed in the National League, Philadelphia is 6-0 SU and against the runline on home turf.

The Astros tasted defeat on the road for the first time in the MLB postseason via their 7-0 loss to the Phillies in Game 3 of the World Series. Houston is 1-3 SU in the club’s last four World Series away games.

Even though Philadelphia leads this best-of-seven set 2-1, oddsmakers are staying with the Astros as the chalk for the fourth successive game. Houston is the -115 away favorite to take Game 4.

Game 4 Astros vs Phillies Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros -115 -1.5 (+150) O 7.5 (-125)
Philadelphia Phillies -105 +1.5 (-178) U 7.5 (+105)

Odds as of November 1 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get a Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.

At moneyline odds of -115, a bet on the Astros would have an implied probability of victory of 53.49% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Houston would create a payout of $18.70.

 

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First pitch at Citizens Bank Park goes at 8:03 pm ET on Wednesday, November 2. The weather forecast is calling for clear skies with 4 mph wind and a temperature of 68 degrees. The Phillies are given -140 odds to go on to take the World Series in the MLB playoff bracket.

Philadelphia outfielder Bryce Harper is the favorite to win the World Series MVP Award at a betting line of +180. A 4-3 Astros  victory is set as the most probable series outcome at odds of +240.

Houston vs Philadelphia Probable Pitchers

In the MLB lineups, Astros right-hander Cristian Javier is making his second career MLB postseason start. He worked 5.1 innings of one-hit shutout ball to beat the New York Yankees 5-0 in Game 3 of the ALCS.

Javier’s previous 11 MLB playoff appearances were all in relief. Combined, he’s 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in postseason work.

The righty struggled in last year’s World Series, though. Working three innings in relief over three games, Javier allowed four earned runs and three home runs. He blew the save in Game 4.

Javier vs Nola Stats

Cristian Javier
VS
Aaron Nola
11-9 Record 11-13
2.54 ERA 3.25
2.43 xERA 2.74
0.95 WHIP 0.96
3.73 SO/W Ratio 8.10

Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola will be making his fourth postseason start of both 2022 and his MLB career. The Game 1 starter for Philadelphia, so far, he’s 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA.

His last two starts haven’t gone nearly as well as his first two. In Game 1 of this series against the Astros, Nola was touched for six hits and five earned runs in 4.1 innings of work. He wasn’t around when the Phillies rallied gain a 6-5 win.

The San Diego Padres roughed him up for six earned runs in 4.2 innings of work while handing Nola an 8-5 loss in Game 2 of the NLCS. Nola has served up four home runs over these two starts. Prior to that, Nola didn’t allow an earned run in back-to-back victories at St. Louis and over Atlanta.

This season, Nola led the National League in strikeouts/walks ratio (8.10) and bases on balls allowed per nine innings (1.3). He also tied for the NL lead with one complete-game shutout.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Phillies Batters Batting Average vs Javier Astros Batters Batting Average vs Nola
Nick Castellanos .000 Yuli Gurriel .500
Bryce Harper .000 Martin Maldonado .500
Brandon Marsh .571 Chas McCormick .500
Kyle Schwarber .000 Jeremy Pena .333
Jean Segura .000 Kyle Tucker 1.000

Philadelphia’s Brandon Marsh is 4-for-7 (.571) with a double and an RBI when digging in against Javier. Kyle Schwarber (0-for-2, .000) is the only other Phillies hitter to have previously faced Javier.

In Game 1, Houston’s Kyle Tucker was 2-for-2 (1.000) with two homers and 4 RBI off Nola. Martin Maldonado, Yuli Gurriel and Chas McCormick were 1-for-2 (.500). Maldonado drove in a run. Jeremy Pena was 1-for-3 (.333).

Game 4 Phillies vs Astros Prediction

In the NLCS, Nola beat his brother, Padres catcher Austin Nola. During the World Series, Nola is seeking to get the better of Astros third baseman Alex Bregman, his college roommate at LSU.

Thanks to the rainout that was moving Game 3 back a day, Nola will be going on his regular four day’s rest in Game 4. However, he’s 3-7 with a 3.79 ERA this season on four day’s rest. With five or six day’s rest, Nola is 8-6 with a 2.85 ERA.

In 13 career playoff appearances, the Astros are 10-3 when Javier pitches. But in the World Series they’re 1-2 when he pitches.

Pick: Houston Astros ML (-115)

 

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