Best Bets & Picks for Tigers vs Mariners Game 5, Plus Player Props to Target
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Detroit’s Tarik Skubal faces Seattle’s George Kirby in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the 2025 ALDS on Friday night
- The Tigers have won both of Skubal’s playoff starts and their ace has a miniscule 1.84 ERA
- I have set out my Tigers vs Mariners picks and prediction, plus the best props to target and latest odds
The Detroit Tigers (87-75, 41-40 away) and Seattle Mariners (90-72, 51-30 home) meet in a decisive Game 5 at T-Mobile Park on Friday night (5:08 pm PT/8:08 pm ET). Reigning AL Cy Young-winner Tarik Skubal (1.84 ERA, 0.82 WHIP in playoffs) makes his third start of the postseason against Seattle’s George Kirby (3.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in playoffs), who also started opposite Skubal in Detroit’s 3-2 extra-innings Game 1 victory.
Below, I will set out my Tigers v Mariners picks and predictions for Game 5, dissect the critical pitching duel, analyze the player props and betting odds, and explore key batter-versus-pitcher histories.
Jump to: PICKS || PLAYER PROPS || GAME 5 ODDS || HITTER -vs-PITCHER STATS
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Prediction
- Tigers moneyline (-110) at Caesars
- Under 6.0 (-120) at Caesars
- Carpenter over 1.0 total bases (-105) at BetMGM
My Tigers vs Mariners picks for Game 5 start with the Tigers moneyline, which has come down from an opening line of -130 to a -110 pick’em price at Caesars. I’m taking Detroit for the reasons you’d expect: Skubal has been excellent this postseason and is the best overall starting pitcher in baseball, while the Tiger hitters have hammered Kirby to the tune .986 OPS in 99 at-bats.Kerry Carpenter (5 HRs in 10 ABs) and Jake Rogers (2 HRs in 7 ABs) have had his number, making this a high-risk start for the 6’4 righty.
Jorge Polanco managed to launch a pair of home runs off of Skubal in Game 1 but I have a lot more trust that the Detroit ace will make the necessary adjustments than I do in Kirby flipping the narrative against a lineup that’s crushed him his entire career.
My second Tigers/Mariners best bet is under 6.0 runs. That would seem to run contrary to my fade of Kirby, but I don’t expect him to be awful and get chased early. I’m more expecting something around three earned runs over five or six innings – similar to his Game 1 start. With Skubal holding the fort on the other side, Detroit’s generally mediocre offense will have a very difficult time pushing the total over six runs.
My third Tigers vs Mariners pick is Kerry Carpenter over 1.0 total bases at -105. Carpenter has five hits against Kirby and every single one left the yard. He can push on this with a single, but I like the value on over 1.0 (-105) a lot more than over 0.5 hits at -170.
SEA Mariners vs DET Tigers Game 5 Player Props
MLB player props as of October 10 at DraftKings.
The prop market highlights the expected dominance of the starting pitchers. Skubal’s strikeout line is a massive 9.5, a testament to his swing-and-miss stuff, though the under is heavily favored at -144. The Mariners’ lineup has several hitters who have managed to put the ball in play against him.
Kirby’s strikeout line is a more modest 5.5. The BvP data is alarming, as the Tigers have a collective ____ OPS against him, with Kerry Carpenter and Jake Rogers combining for seven home runs in just 17 at-bats. This makes Kirby’s Over 1.5 earned runs prop at +100 look particularly appealing. The line for walks allowed is just 0.5, reflecting his elite control, but the heavy juice on the over (-214) suggests books expect him to be nibbling against this dangerous lineup.
Latest Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Odds
With Skubal on the mound, the Tigers are slight road favorites. Currently, the best moneyline price on Detroit is -120 at Caesars. The Mariners are as long as +110 at bet365. Removing the juice, the moneyline odds give the Tigers a 54.0% implied win probability, compared to 46% for the Mariners.
The run total is as low as 5.5 and as high as 6.0. Over bettors should take O 5.5 (-120) at bet365, while under bettors should jump on U 6.0 (-121) at DraftKings.
Odds commentary as of 10:57 am ET. The MLB odds in the table, above, will update automatically with the best available price if the lines move before first pitch.
Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Skubal vs Kirby
Both pitchers have a fairly long history against the opposing lineup and, as you’ll see below, it projects much more favorably for the Tiger hitters than the Mariner lineup.
Detroit Tigers Career Statistics vs George Kirby
In 99 total at-bats, the Tigers have complied an elite .986 OPS against Kirby with a .293 average. Kerry Carpenter is 5-for-11 off of Kirby and all five hits left the yard, including a go-ahead two-run homer in the fifth inning of Game 1 (the only runs Kirby allowed on the day).
Gleyber Torres, Jake Rogers, Wenceel Perez, and Colt Keith also have OPS numbers of 1.000 or higher against Kirby in a minimum of seven at-bats.
Seattle Mariners Career Statistics vs Tarik Skubal
Skubal has limited to Mariners to a .217 average and .654 OPS in 138 total at-bats. Jorge Polanco jacked two home runs off Skubal in Game 1 and now has three career longballs off the Detroit ace along with a .966 OPS in 29 at-bats.
J.P. Crawford is 5-for-8 with a double and a .1450 OPS.
Seattle’s biggest bats, Julio Rodriguez (.182 avg) and Cal Raleigh (.167 avg), are both hitting well under the Mendoza line against Skubal, though both have one home run in 11 and 12 at-bats, respectively.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
