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Home Run Props to Target Today – Get a +35000 HR Parlay on Tuesday, May 13th

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


May 3, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon (24) during the sixth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
  • Another Dinger Tuesday awaits us in the MLB on Tuesday, May 13
  • We’ve got a million weather issues that we need to navigate, but that’s the norm this time of year
  • See below for my +24953 home run parlay today (May 13th)

It’s Dinger Tuesday, so we all need to look alive. It’s our day. Dingers are the world’s toughest market to bet. They come in bunches, which means we need to be locked in every single day. We never know when our day is coming. Plus, after yesterday, with Kyle Tucker hitting a ball off the right field wall, we’re close. Lucky for us, there are matchups all over the board to exploit. Sure, there are “weather games”, but all we have to do is cross those off and keep moving. All we need to do is find three guys that we can trust, and BAM, we’re stuffing cash in our pockets. Something tells me today is the day. Feels right.

Please remember to play both legs straight for a 1/4 unit as well as a 1/2 unit two-leg parlay.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (May 13)

PickOdds
Yandy Diaz HR+630
Ryan McMahon HR+420
Mike Yastrzemski HR+560
3-Leg Parlay+24953

MLB odds as of May 13 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s list of the top sports betting apps.

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CLAIM OFFER

Tuesday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run

We need to look for some inside games, since there is so much rain on the board tonight. The strategy is simple: it can’t rain inside of a dome. Ask anybody. Lucky for us, one of my favorite guys on the board tonight, Yandy Diaz, plays in Toronto tonight.

What’s even better is, he destroys Jose Berrios’ pitch mix.

PitchDiaz Barrel Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Berrios ISO vs LHB (2025)
Sinker12%.261
Four-seam Fastball14%.250

The thing with Berrios is, he’s not afraid to challenge anyone. That’s probably why he has given up eight home runs in just 46 innings of work so far this season. He has a 17% barrel rate over the last two weeks, so things aren’t getting much better for him. When Berrios is finished, Diaz will see a Toronto bullpen that is bottom 10 in MLB in barrel rate over the last two weeks. Simply put, someone from Tampa is going deep tonight. I think it’s Diaz.

  • The Bet: Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+700) – BetMGM
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Tuesday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Ryan McMahon to Hit a Home Run

Ryan McMahon has been a staple in the Circle of Trust for years now. He has always flown under the radar, and he’s always crushed baseballs. Those are two things we need from our Circle of Trust guys. It’s just how things work in the Circle of Trust.

Another thing we like in the Circle is a pitch mix that gets abused. We’ve got that tonight from Jack Leiter.

PitchMcMahon Barrel Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Leiter Hard Hit Rate vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball24%29%
Curveball33%150%

I know the haters are going to say that Leiter has only given up two dingers all season, but as usual, the haters are simply wrong. I mean, he has only given up two dingers, but both of them were to left-handed batters. We’re talking 52 plate appearances here, people. That’s not great for Jack. On top of that, Leiter’s barrel rate is 10+% over the last two weeks, and so is the Texas bullpen as a whole. Simply put, somebody is going deep for Colorado tonight. I think it’s Ryan McMahon.

  • The Bet: Ryan McMahon to Hit a Home Run (+420) – FanDuel

Tuesday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Mike Yastrzemski to Hit a Home Run

Finally, we need a guy from the late slate to close this thing out, and who better than baseball royalty? We’re talking about a guy related to the great Carl Yastrzemski. As far as bloodlines go, this is about as good as it gets outside of Bonds and Griffey.

Still, there are no Bonds or Griffey’s going tonight, so we’ll take a Yaz. Especially given what he does to Brandon Pfaadt’s pitch mix.

PitchYastrzemski Fly Ball Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Pfaadt Hard Hit Rate vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball42%74%
Changeup40%28%

What we need against Pfaadt is a lefty who can get the ball in the air. So far this season, Pfaadt has given up seven dingers in 46 innings pitched, and six of those bombs came off a left-hander’s bat. Yastrzemski should get multiple opportunities against Pfaadt tonight, but even if he doesn’t get him, he could still get the Arizona bullpen. They’ve got the fourth-worst barrel rate in MLB over the last 14 days. This is just crazy enough to work. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Mike Yastrzemski to Hit a Home Run (+625) – BetMGM
  • SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -7.963 Units
John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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