Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Friday, July 28th, Including a +340 Home Run Prop
- MLB player props are available for Friday’s MLB betting slate
- Christian Javier has gone under 5.5 strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 starts.
- Check out the best MLB player prop picks for Friday, July 28th, below
Thursday had an unusually light slate of games, with only five on the MLB docket. Luckily Friday features a full MLB betting slate for us.
First up for Friday’s player props, we will be heading to Houston and taking Christian Javier to go under 5.5 strikeouts against the Rays.
Best MLB Player-Prop Bets for Friday, July 28
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cristian Javier Under 5.5 Strikeouts | +106 |
| Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run | +340 |
| Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -116 |
Javier has been one of the worst strikeout pitchers in the MLB this entire season and, for some reason, the books are pricing his over/under at 5.5. I would maybe consider his over if it were priced at 2.5. Maybe.
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Odds as of July 27 at FanDuel & DraftKings. Bettors in eligible states can claim a DraftKings promo code or FanDuel promo code to bet on Friday’s MLB player props. While bettors in KY can checkout the latest on DraftKings Kentucky and FanDuel Kentucky.
MLB Player Prop #1: Cristian Javier Under 5.5 Strikeouts
One of my favorite trends all year has been fading Javier and taking his strikeout unders, and yet the books continue to price his prop too high and give us plus-money. It’s crazy! I had to do a triple check to make sure I was looking at everything correctly. As mentioned above, Javier has legitimately gone under 5.5 strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 starts, and sometimes not even getting close.
Cristian Javier Last 11 Starts
| Team | Ks | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 5 | 7/22 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 7 | 7/16 |
| Texas Rangers | 4 | 7/03 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 6/28 |
| New York Mets | 1 | 6/21 |
| Washington Nationals | 2 | 6/15 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 6/09 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 5 | 6/03 |
| Oakland Athletics | 3 | 5/28 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 5 | 5/22 |
| Chicago Cubs | 5 | 5/10 |
Overall, he has a K/inning of 0.92 (36th) percentile, and a called strike + whiff rate of 25% (18th percentile). He also is not having a good year in general, so he cannot be trusted to last deep into games either. On the year, he has an ERA of 4.32, with an xERA even worse at 4.49.
Pick: Cristian Javier Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)
MLB Player Prop #2: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run
Deep cut here, and you might not have even heard of this player, but we are backing Ohtani to hit a home run for us on Friday. Unsurprisingly, a player with 38 home runs on the year has ridiculous advanced power numbers, but diving into Ohtani’s is just laughable, especially against right-handed pitching, which is what he will be facing on Friday.
Overall, Ohtani leads the MLB in ISO rate at 36.9%. Well, if you isolate specifically against RHP that number jumps up to 38.7%. Keep in mind that anything above 25% is considered excellent by FanGraphs standards. To make his stats even more silly, if you isolate the data to be since July 1st and against RHP, his ISO rate is 48.8%. Truly astounding numbers.
A COMPLETE GAME SHUTOUT IN THE DAY GAME FOLLOWED BY A TWO HOME RUN GAME IN THE NIGHT GAME. SHOHEI OHTANI IS QUITE LITERALLY UNBELIEVABLE. WOW. pic.twitter.com/yD2oLmNZAT
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) July 27, 2023
The reason why we are getting such a good price on Ohtani to hit a dinger is because he is going up against the Blue Jays ace in Kevin Gausman, but that is still a matchup that I give the advantage to Ohtani. He just went yard twice on Thursday, and he very well might hit two again on Friday.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+340)
MLB Player Prop #3: Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts
For our last play of the slate, let’s go with a strikeout prop over. For this one, we are fading recent trends and backing Garrett to go back to his strikeout ways.
There was a stretch earlier in the year when Garrett went over 5.5 Ks in 10 of 12 starts, but he has missed it in four of his last five. The biggest difference with Garrett is that he has been unable to last deep into games, especially recently. In his past two starts he hasn’t even been able to make it through 5 innings. Enter the Detroit Tigers.
Luckily for Garrett, the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the MLB against lefties. Their WRC+ against LHP is rated 93, which is eighth-worst in the MLB, and any other advanced metric you look at is going to be bottom-10. On the year, in games in which Garrett has pitched deep into games (70+ pitches), he has gone over 5.5 Ks 10 of 16 times.
Against the Tigers, I’m confident he will be able to get through 5 innings, and cash this over for us.
Pick: Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116)
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Matt Modi is a sports betting writer for SportsBettingDime. He offers his best bets for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, & WNBA. Previously, Matt worked at OddsJam, where he covered all things sports betting. In his free time, Matt likes to take his two dogs for hikes in the Colorado mountains.
