Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 4 Expert Picks, Predictions & Player Props to Bet

• The LA Dodgers are heavy favorites against the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 4 of the World Series
• After reaching base nine times last night, Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for Game 4 against Shane Bieber
• See the Blue Jays vs Dodgers expert picks and predictions, plus the best player props to bet, and latest betting odds

After an 18-inning marathon last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers (104-71, 58-30 home) and Toronto Blue Jays (102-74, 43-44 away) are right back at it in Game 4 of the World Series. Now leading 2-1 in the best-of-seven thanks to a Freddie Freeman walk-off home run, the Dodgers send Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 2.25 ERA in postseason) to the mound against former Cy Young-winner Shane Bieber (1-0, 4.38 ERA in postseason) for the Jays.

The primary storyline entering Tuesday’s contest is the state of each team’s bullpen. After a game that stretched deep into the night, both relief corps are running on fumes, placing immense pressure on Ohtani and Bieber to deliver quality innings. For the Blue Jays, the health of star outfielder George Springer, who left Game 3 with an undisclosed injury, looms large. Toronto’s offense has struggled to produce clutch hits, a problem that would be magnified by Springer’s potential absence. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ offense, led by an incandescent Ohtani who blasted two home runs in the previous game, aims to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

First pitch for Game 4 is scheduled for 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET at Dodger Stadium. This preview sets out my a data-driven Blue Jays vs Dodgers picks and prediction, a massive list of player props, the relevant BvP stats, and the latest Game 4 odds. Use the links below to navigate directly to each section.

Jump to: PICKS || PLAYER PROPS || BvP STATS || ODDS & BETTING SPLITS

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Prediction

• Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (+180) at BetMGM
• Over 8.0 runs (-110) at bet365
• Ohtani under 1.5 total bases (+100) at Sports Interaction

My three Blue Jays vs Dodgers picks for Game 4 are the Toronto moneyline, the over on 8.0 runs, and Ohtani to stay under 1.5 total bases, which may seem like borderline insanity after he piled up 12 total bases last night. But I have my reasons.

My moneyline bet is purely based on the implied probability. At +180, the Blue Jays need just a 36% win probability to be a +EV bet. The first 36 innings of this series have showed that Toronto is neck-and-neck with the Dodgers in terms of overall quality. Their lineup is almost as deep, and their bullpen is better. The Dodgers have the edge in starting pitching, undoubtedly, but Ohtani’s career numbers against this Toronto lineup are cause for concern. As you’ll see below, four separate Blue Jay starters have an OPS over 1.000 against the 31-year-old (Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, George Springer).

The main reason the Dodgers didn’t get a top-two seed in the NL at the end of the regular season was their bullpen. Yes, it put on a performance for the ages last night, but it’s hard to see that happening again from a group that’s underperformed all season and is now severely fatigued. If Ohtani doesn’t go deep – and there is a good chance he won’t – the advantage swings to the Jays.

My biggest concern with taking the Toronto moneyline isn’t Shane Bieber’s shaky postseason. He has great career numbers against the LAD lineup and he showed in Game 3 of the ALCS that there’s still plenty of juice in his arm (6.0 IP, 4H, 1BB, 2ER, 8 K), it’s the potential absence of Springer, who is 7-for-15 with a pair of home runs against Ohtani.

I’m also betting the over, in large part, because of bullpen fatigue on both sides. Both bullpens overperformed last night and are due for regression when they get tossed in tonight on no rest.

My last bet is Ohtani under 1.5 total bases. I’m strictly betting the under because I can’t see John Schneider giving him anything to hit in Game 4. In his first four plate appearances in Game 3, Ohtani hit two home runs and two doubles. He was then intentionally walked four straight times and unintentionally walked on four straight balls in his final PA. Based on the pitch location of those four straight balls, the fifth and final walk was 99% as intentional as the first four.

Dodgers vs Blue Jays World Series Game 4 Player Props

MLB player props are consensus lines across sportsbooks as of 10:15 am ET, October 28th.

Ohtani’s strikeout line of 6.5 is a focal point. Facing a Blue Jays lineup that can be aggressive, Ohtani’s swing-and-miss stuff gives him a strong chance to exceed this total. He had nine Ks in six innings in his first postseason start (at Philadelphia), and ten Ks in six innings in his second (vs Milwaukee). His earned-runs line at 1.5 is low, but the over is juiced at -155.

For Bieber, the strikeout total is a more modest 4.5. This reflects the Dodgers’ patient offensive approach; they are known for working counts and forcing pitchers to throw strikes. The over on his earned runs (2.5) and hits allowed (4.5) seems plausible against such a deep and talented lineup. His outs prop is set at 15.5 (meaning he would hit the over if he records one out in the sixth). He was pulled before the end of the fourth in two of his starts this postseason, and lasted six full innings in the other.

BvP History: Bieber vs Ohtani

Both lineups have roughly the same number of ABs against the opposing starter. The Blue Jays as a whole have 60 at-bats against Ohtani, while the Dodgers have 58 against Bieber. The historical results are much more encouraging for the Jays.

TOR Hitters vs Ohtani

Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer all have an OPS over 1.000 against Ohtani in a minimum of five ABs per player (and a total of 28 between them). Springer leads the way with a 1.367 OPS in 15 ABs, including a pair of home runs, making his potential absence at the top of the order all the more impactful. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has also crushed two home runs off Ohtani in just five ABs, boasting a ridiculous 2.400 OPS against the 6’3 righty.

LAD Hitters vs Shane Bieber

Bieber has limited the Dodger order to an meager .579 OPS in their 58 ABs against him. Will Smith (2-for-3 with a double) has the best history in a tiny sample size. Bieber’s 20 strikeouts in those 58 ABs add up to an elite 34.5% K-rate.

LA Dodgers vs TOR Blue Jays Game 4 Odds

The Dodgers enter Game 4 as big favorites to take a 3-1 stranglehold on the best-of-seven series. The longest Los Angeles moneyline is sitting at -205 (at bet365), while the Blue Jays are as long as +180 (at BetMGM). The total is sitting at 8.5 runs, the highest of the series so far, with the under a slight -115 favorite.

If you want to be the Dodgers to win by multiple runs, the best price you’ll get at this point is just even-money (again at bet365). FanDuel has the best runline price on Toronto +1.5 at -115.

Odds commentary is based on the lines at 11:09 am ET. The lines in the interactive table, above, will update automatically with the best-available price for each betting market if any of the MLB odds move sufficiently before gametime.

Game 4 Line Movement

The betting market has moved decisively toward the Dodgers since lines opened. The Dodgers’ moneyline shifted from -187 to north of -200 at all sportsbooks, a significant jump that reflects heavy betting action on the home team. Similarly, the runline odds for the Dodgers -1.5 moved from +117 to even-money or shorter. The total has held steady at 8.0 runs with minimal movement on the juice, which opened with the under favored at -115.

Game 4 Public-Betting Splits

Tuesday’s MLB public betting splits reveal a fascinating divide. While a slight majority of moneyline tickets are on the underdog Blue Jays, the public is overwhelmingly backing the Los Angeles Dodgers on the runline, with over 72% of bets backing them to win by two or more runs.

The total runs market sees a solid majority of bets and money on the over, indicating that bettors expect the tired bullpens to concede runs late in the game.