Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Picks Player Props, Latest Odds for Game 3

• The Mariners can put the Blue Jays on the brink of elimination in Game 3 of the ALCS on Wednesday
• Excellent at home all season, George Kirby starts for Seattle against a struggling Shane Bieber for Toronto
• Below, I have set out my Blue Jays vs Mariners picks, a huge list of player props, and the latest Game 3 odds and line movement

With a 2-0 series advantage, the Seattle Mariners (95-74, 53-31 home) return home to face the Toronto Blue Jays (97-71, 41-42 away) in Game 3 of the ALCS. A win would move Seattle within one game of their first World Series appearance in the 49-year history of the franchise.

The Mariners will send right-hander George Kirby (10-8, 4.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in regular season) to the mound against Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in regular season) for the Jays.

First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 pm PT at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. The pitching matchup features a compelling duel between Toronto’s Shane Bieber and Seattle’s George Kirby.

Blue Jays vs Mariners Picks & Prediction for Game 3

• Seattle Mariners moneyline (-130)
• Under 7.5 runs (-120)
• Bieber over 4.5 Ks (-135)

Based on career history, the pitching matchup in Game 3 slightly favors the Blue Jays; Bieber has dominated the Mariner lineup (.538 OPS), while the Jays have compiled a .741 OPS against Kirby.

But Kirby has been better in the postseason (2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP vs 6.75 ERA, 2.25 WHIP for Bieber) and will be pitching in the comfort of T-Mobile Park, where he had a 3.38 ERA in the regular season (compared to a 5.16 ERA on the road).

In his minimal regular-season innings, Bieber had a 3.27 home ERA and a 3.93 road ERA. He’ll also be facing a red-hot Seattle lineup that feasts on home cooking and is backed up by a flailing Toronto bullpen.

Several betting trends reinforce Seattle’s edge. The Mariners are an astounding 10-1 (.909) at home following a win over their last 11 such games and have gone 12-3 (.800) in their last 15 games as a home favorite.

The Blue Jays are trending in the opposite direction, with a 2-5 (.286) record in their last seven road games.

While the over has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these clubs, the under has cashed in Seattle’s last four home games, and the high-stakes nature of the ALCS often leads to suppressed scoring. With Kirby on the mound and the Blue Jays offense depleted, the under presents strong value.

Mariners vs Blue Jays Player Props (Game 3)

MLB player props as of October 15 at DraftKings. Over odds listed first for all markets.

George Kirby’s strikeout prop of 4.5 looks appealing, even with the -130 juice. The Blue Jays lineup is significantly weakened by injuries, particularly the absence of Bo Bichette, and Kirby has elite control that should allow him to work deep into the game.

For Shane Bieber, the earned runs line of 1.5, with the over at -144, reflects the market’s skepticism about his ability to contain a powerful Mariner offense. Seattle’s patient hitters could make it difficult for Bieber to escape innings unscathed.

Cal Raleigh has the shortest home run odds at +275. No other player is shorter than +391 (Guerrero Jr).

The tables below set out the full hitter-vs-pitcher history for both lineups against the tonight’s opposing starter.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs George Kirby

The Jays have had some success against Kirby in their 64 ABs. Anthony Santander, in particular, has crushed him, with a .400 average, two home runs, and a 1.200 OPS in 15 at-bats. No other Toronto hitters have a homer off of the Seattle starter.

Kirby has excellent stats against some of Toronto’s biggest bats, limiting Vlad Guerrero Jr to a .556 OPS in nine at-bats, and Alejandro Kirk to a .536 OPS in seven at-bats.

Seattle Mariners Batters vs Shane Bieber

Bieber has immaculate numbers against the Seattle lineup in a large sample size of 109 ABs. Only one Mariner, Eugenio Suarez, has taken him deep, and the Seattle third baseman still only has a .667 OPS in 18 at-bats against the Toronto righty.

J.P. Crawford has by far the best history against Bieber among the Mariner lineup, going 6-for-12 with four RBI, though all six hits were singles.

Latest Mariners vs Blue Jays Game 3 Odds

As of Wednesday morning, the Mariners are -130 favorites (or shorter) with bet365, Caesars, BetMGM, and FanDuel all offering the same price on the Seattle moneyline. The Blue Jays are +110 underdogs at all the same books. Without the vig, the moneyline odds give Seattle a 54.3% implied win probability, leaving 45.7% for the Jays.

The over/under is sitting at just 7.0 runs with the over juiced at -120 or shorter. BetMGM currently has the best over price, while bet365 has the longest odds on the under at +105.

Odds commentary as of 12:43 pm ET. The odds in the table will updated with the best-available price for each betting market if the MLB odds move before first pitch.

Game 3 Odds Movement

The betting lines for this ALCS showdown have seen notable movement since opening. The Mariners opened as steeper -149 favorites on the moneyline but have since been bet down as low as -130. Conversely, the Blue Jays have moved from +122 to +1110, indicating that money has come in on the underdog.

The total has also seen a major adjustment, opening at 7 runs with the Under favored at -116. The line has since flipped, with the Over 7 now juiced to -119. This suggests the market anticipates more offense than initially projected, despite the game being played in the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

TOR vs SEA Game 3 Public Betting Splits

Public and sharp bettors are surprisingly aligned on the underdog in this contest. A significant 58.9% of moneyline bets and a whopping 74.0% of the handle are backing the Toronto Blue Jays in Wednesday’s MLB public betting splits, which explains the line movement in their favor. This creates a classic fade-the-public opportunity on the Mariners.

The total is seeing the most lopsided action, as 80.4% of tickets are on the Over 7, making the Under a strong contrarian play.

Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now

Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!