Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Odds, Picks & Player Props

• It’s win or go home for the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees in Game 3 of the ALWC on Thursday, Oct. 2nd
• The Yankees are home favorites with betting trends pointing towards a low-scoring affair at Yankee Stadium.
• See Red Sox vs Yankees Game 3 picks and predictions, plus the player props and odds

The New York Yankees (95-69, 51-32 home) and Boston Red Sox (90-74, 42-41 away) meet in a decisive Game 3 of their American League Wild Card Series on Thursday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx (8:08 pm ET).

Both teams send talented-but-untested rookies to the mound in Game 3 as Boston’s Connelly Early (1-2, 2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 19.1 IP) meets New York’s Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 73.0 IP). Both pitchers possess elite strikeout stuff, posting double-digit K/9 numbers throughout the minor league and brief MLB tenures.

Oddsmakers give New York the edge at home in the Game 3 Red Sox vs Yankees odds.

Jump to: Odds || Starting Pitchers || Player Props || Picks & Prediction

Yankees vs Red Sox Odds & Line Movement

The Yankees, who opened as -162 favorites, are still priced roughly the same. DraftKings has dropped their moneyline price to -158 but they’re shorter at other books. The Red Sox, who opened as +136 underdogs, can be found as long as +140 currently. The total has dropped half a run from 8.0 (O -105| U -115) to 7.5 with the under juiced at -115 or shorter depending on the book.

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Odds commentary as of 2:29 pm ET. The odds in the table will update automatically to reflect the best-available price if the MLB lines move before first pitch.

After their 4-3 Game 2 victory, New York’s World Series odds improved from +1500 to +1000. Boston faded from +1400 to +1800.

Starting Pitcher Comparison: Early vs Schlittler

Neither starter has thrown a single pitch against any player in the opposing lineup. This lack of familiarity introduces a significant element of uncertainty and could give an early advantage to the young hurler.

Cam Schlittler

Twenty-four-year-old Schlittler, a hard-throwing 6’6 righty, has a four-pitch mix but relies heavily on his plus-four-seam fastball. He also possesses a cutter (21%), curve (15%), and sinker (7%) with an occasional sweeper thrown in (2%). He averaged an elite 98.0 mph on his four-seamer, which generated a 27.7% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. He was 57th-percentile in whiff rate across the majors.

His righty/lefty splits were not pronounced. He held right-handed hitters to a .222 average and .623 OPS. Lefties hit just .211 but generated more power (.680 OPS).

Boston’s best four-seam fastball hitters this year were the injured Roman Anthony (10 run value) and Jarren Duran (7 run value), and Alex Bregman (5 run value). Concerningly, Trevor Story had a -5 run value on four-seamers.

Connelly Early

On the other side, 23-year-old Connelly Early, a 6’3 lefty, faces the daunting task of making his postseason debut – and fifth-ever start – in Yankee Stadium against a lineup headlined by two-time MVP and future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Judge.

Early has a massive six-pitch arsenal to keep hitters off balance, relying more on command, movement, and change-of-speed than the power-pitching Schlittler. His fastball is no slouch; he averages 94.0 mph on his four-seamer and generates a 29.3% whiff rate on that particular pitch, but he only throws his four-seam FB 29% of the time (compared to 55% for Schlittler).

He’s been dominant against lefties (.150 average, 377 OPS in 20 at-bats) and more pedestrian against righties (.259 average, .576 OPS in 54 at-bats). He has yet to surrender a home run in the MLB over 79 batters faced.

Expect Aaron Boone to stack his lineup with righties and consider fading whichever lefties do make the lineup, at least when they’re facing Early, i.e. Jazz Chisholm Jr, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Trent Grisham.

Yankees vs Red Sox Game 3 Player Props

MLB player props as of October 2, 2025 from MGM.

For the batter props, Aaron Judge’s total bases line at 1.5 with -110 odds on the over is compelling. He is averaging 2.45 total bases per game this season and went 2-for-4 in Game 2.

For the Red Sox, Trevor Story is coming off a 2-for-4 performance with a home run, making his Over 1.5 total bases at +135 an intriguing play but, as mentioned, he’s been bad against four-seam fastballs this year, and that might be all he sees from Schlittler.

On the pitching side, Schlittler’s strikeout line is set at 4.5. Given the high-pressure environment and the Red Sox batters’ potential to be aggressive, the over at -141 is a solid look. His earned runs line at 1.5 with plus money (+108) on the over is also tempting, considering the potency of the Boston lineup, even with injuries.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Prediction

• Under 7.5 runs (-115) at bet365
• Red Sox moneyline (+140) at Caesars
• Early over 5.5 strikeouts (+386) at DraftKings

In a winner-take-all Game 3, the focus inevitably lands on the starting pitchers, and with no prior history between these rookie arms and the opposing lineups, the edge shifts to the home team with the stronger bullpen and more formidable hitters. The Yankees have also been dominant at home recently, posting an 8-1 record in their last nine games at Yankee Stadium and going 9-1 as a favorite in their last ten.

But the Red Sox have had the Yankees’ number this season, overall, going 10-5 straight-up including postseason. Boston has also shown remarkable resilience lately, winning the last six games following a loss.

The betting trends strongly favor a low-scoring game. The under has hit in the last six Red Sox games against opponents with a winning record and in the last four Yankees home games. All signs point to a tense pitchers’ duel, and I very purposely put the possessive apostrophe after the s in “pitchers” because the bullpens are going to play a massive role. If either rookie starter looks shaky early, he’ll get the hook just as quickly. Neither manager will allow their young starter to get shelled in a do-or-die game.

In addition to the Boston runline and the under, I’m also going to take a big swing on Early to hit at least six Ks, which is priced at +386 at DraftKings. He is averaging 13.5 K/9 early in his MLB career, and that number was 11.3 or higher throughout his minor-league days. He’s fanned at least seven in three of his first four MLB starts, and had 11 Ks in his first-ever big league game, a signal that he has the nerves to thrive under pressure. Maybe the rookie will crumble under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium in a must-win game, but if he doesn’t, this over bet could lead to a huge payday.