Upcoming Match-ups

Braves vs Mets Odds, Lines, and Spread – July 24

New York Mets
New York's Jacob deGrom begins his quest for a third straight Cy Young Award on Friday versus Atlanta. Photo by slgckgc (Flickr).
  • The New York Mets are -143 favorites over the Atlanta Braves on Friday afternoon
  • Reigning Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom is 7-7, with a 1.97 ERA in 21 career starts vs Atlanta
  • Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

The National League East projects to be one of the tightest races in baseball this year, with every team but the Miami Marlins expected to compete for the division crown.

Two of the contenders, Atlanta and New York, square off Friday afternoon at 4:00 pm EST in what’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel. Reigning Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom will take the ball for the Mets, while the Braves will counter with last year’s NL ROY runner-up Mike Soroka.

Braves vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Atlanta Braves +125 +1.5 (-195) Over 7.5 (-103)
New York Mets -143 -1.5 (+160) Under 7.5 (-118)

Odds taken July 23th.

New York was 8-11 against Atlanta last season and is currently listed as a -143 favorite in the Braves vs Mets odds, with a total of just 7.5. Preseason projections have Atlanta rated as the number three offense in the NL, while New York projects to allow the second fewest runs.

Let’s Play Ball

This year’s Braves team looks very similar to the one that won 97 games in 2019 with a few key exceptions. Former MVP Josh Donaldson left for Minnesota, while Nick Markakis opted out of the season. Atlanta will be looking for even more production from star Ronald Acuna, while young talent like Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson are expected to take on bigger offensive roles.

The Braves did add a pair of veteran bats for offensive insurance, bringing in power from both sides of the plate. Marcel Ozuna joins the team after hitting 29 home runs for the Cardinals in 2019, while Matt Adams returns after a 20 home run season with the World Series champion Nationals.

Braves Career Stats vs deGrom

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Ronald Acuna 20 5 0 1 5 .250
Ozzie Albies 32 5 0 1 7 .156
Freddy Freeman 54 15 3 6 14 .278
Marcel Ozuna 36 9 1 3 12 .250
Matt Adams 18 5 0 2 9 .278
Adam Duvall 2 0 0 1 2 .000
Dansby Swanson 16 4 0 0 8 .250
Austin Riley 5 2 1 2 2 .400
Tyler Flowers 16 4 1 1 7 .250

Unfortunately for Atlanta, neither Ozuna or Adams has had much success in their careers against deGrom. The new additions are a combined 14-for-54 against the Mets ace, and have struck out 21 times. The rest of the Braves roster hasn’t fared much better, posting a measly .241 average.

deGrom is 7-7 lifetime versus Atlanta, with a 1.97 ERA and a 10.7 K/9 rate. There have been reported concerns about lingering back tightness, but he showed no signs of that last week touching 100 mph on the radar gun.

Soroka is Undefeated vs Mets

deGrom’s counterpart Soroka meanwhile, is 4-0 in five career starts against the Mets but has been far from perfect. He allowed eight runs and three home runs in 17 innings against them last year, and the lineup he’ll face on Friday should look very familiar.

The only major difference is that Todd Frazier is gone and Yoenis Cespedes is back. Cespedes hasn’t played in over two years due to foot and ankle issues and will open the season as New York’s DH.

Mets Career Stats vs Soroka

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Brandon Nimmo 5 1 0 0 2 .200
Pete Alonso 9 4 1 2 3 .444
Robinson Cano 8 2 1 2 0 .250
Yoenis Cespedes 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Michael Conforto 14 3 0 0 1 .214
J.D. Davis 2 1 1 2 1 .500
Amed Rosario 11 3 0 0 2 .273
Jeff McNeil 6 0 0 0 1 .000
Wilson Ramos 3 0 0 0 0 .000

Although Soroka didn’t necessarily have his best stuff versus the Mets in 2019, his numbers against the rest of the league were quite strong. He finished the season with the NL’s third lowest ERA, and a 4.0 WAR. He was dominant in his only postseason start, holding the Cardinals to one run over seven innings, and he finished sixth in Cy Young voting.

Expect a Low Scoring Affair

With arguably baseball’s best pitcher on the mound for New York, and a future star in Soroka starting for Atlanta, runs are going to be tough to come by.

deGrom didn’t allow a single run in his final 21 innings in 2019, and we should expect him to pick up right where he left off. Soroka on the other hand, surrendered just six runs over his final four starts last season and was reportedly very sharp in Barves summer camp.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-118)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.