Braves vs Mets Odds, Lines, and Spread – July 24
- The New York Mets are -143 favorites over the Atlanta Braves on Friday afternoon
- Reigning Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom is 7-7, with a 1.97 ERA in 21 career starts vs Atlanta
- Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game
The National League East projects to be one of the tightest races in baseball this year, with every team but the Miami Marlins expected to compete for the division crown.
Two of the contenders, Atlanta and New York, square off Friday afternoon at 4:00 pm EST in what’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel. Reigning Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom will take the ball for the Mets, while the Braves will counter with last year’s NL ROY runner-up Mike Soroka.
Braves vs Mets Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | +125 | +1.5 (-195) | Over 7.5 (-103) |
| New York Mets | -143 | -1.5 (+160) | Under 7.5 (-118) |
Odds taken July 23th.
New York was 8-11 against Atlanta last season and is currently listed as a -143 favorite in the Braves vs Mets odds, with a total of just 7.5. Preseason projections have Atlanta rated as the number three offense in the NL, while New York projects to allow the second fewest runs.
Let’s Play Ball
This year’s Braves team looks very similar to the one that won 97 games in 2019 with a few key exceptions. Former MVP Josh Donaldson left for Minnesota, while Nick Markakis opted out of the season. Atlanta will be looking for even more production from star Ronald Acuna, while young talent like Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson are expected to take on bigger offensive roles.
Better get used to Ronald Acuña Jr. for the next decade, MLB. #Braves
— CJ (@CJE_NFL) July 22, 2020
The Braves did add a pair of veteran bats for offensive insurance, bringing in power from both sides of the plate. Marcel Ozuna joins the team after hitting 29 home runs for the Cardinals in 2019, while Matt Adams returns after a 20 home run season with the World Series champion Nationals.
Braves Career Stats vs deGrom
| Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .250 |
| Ozzie Albies | 32 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .156 |
| Freddy Freeman | 54 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 14 | .278 |
| Marcel Ozuna | 36 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 12 | .250 |
| Matt Adams | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .278 |
| Adam Duvall | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .000 |
| Dansby Swanson | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .250 |
| Austin Riley | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | .400 |
| Tyler Flowers | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | .250 |
Unfortunately for Atlanta, neither Ozuna or Adams has had much success in their careers against deGrom. The new additions are a combined 14-for-54 against the Mets ace, and have struck out 21 times. The rest of the Braves roster hasn’t fared much better, posting a measly .241 average.
Jacob deGrom hit 98-100 MPH in today’s simulated game at Citi Field.
Your opening day starter,
Mr. Cy Young! #LGM pic.twitter.com/Xj3lZV9d1a— Amazin' Army (@WE_ARE_MET_FANS) July 20, 2020
deGrom is 7-7 lifetime versus Atlanta, with a 1.97 ERA and a 10.7 K/9 rate. There have been reported concerns about lingering back tightness, but he showed no signs of that last week touching 100 mph on the radar gun.
Soroka is Undefeated vs Mets
deGrom’s counterpart Soroka meanwhile, is 4-0 in five career starts against the Mets but has been far from perfect. He allowed eight runs and three home runs in 17 innings against them last year, and the lineup he’ll face on Friday should look very familiar.
Mike Soroka, Front Runner for Sword of the Week. ⚔️😂 pic.twitter.com/Onbn6Qv4Xm
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 18, 2020
The only major difference is that Todd Frazier is gone and Yoenis Cespedes is back. Cespedes hasn’t played in over two years due to foot and ankle issues and will open the season as New York’s DH.
Mets Career Stats vs Soroka
| Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .200 |
| Pete Alonso | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | .444 |
| Robinson Cano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .250 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Michael Conforto | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .214 |
| J.D. Davis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .500 |
| Amed Rosario | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .273 |
| Jeff McNeil | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Wilson Ramos | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Although Soroka didn’t necessarily have his best stuff versus the Mets in 2019, his numbers against the rest of the league were quite strong. He finished the season with the NL’s third lowest ERA, and a 4.0 WAR. He was dominant in his only postseason start, holding the Cardinals to one run over seven innings, and he finished sixth in Cy Young voting.
Expect a Low Scoring Affair
With arguably baseball’s best pitcher on the mound for New York, and a future star in Soroka starting for Atlanta, runs are going to be tough to come by.
Jacob deGrom is different pic.twitter.com/JCAIZT2wkl
— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) March 11, 2020
deGrom didn’t allow a single run in his final 21 innings in 2019, and we should expect him to pick up right where he left off. Soroka on the other hand, surrendered just six runs over his final four starts last season and was reportedly very sharp in Barves summer camp.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-118)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
