Braves vs Rockies Odds, Picks, and Lines (Sep. 2)

• The Atlanta Braves are -150 favorites over the Colorado Rockies on Thursday (September 2nd, 8:40 pm ET)
• Atlanta will give the ball to Touki Toussaint (3-2, 3.60 ERA), while Colorado will counter with Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.08 ERA)
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

The NL East leading Atlanta Braves continue their seven-game road trip in Denver on Thursday (September 2nd), with the first of four contests against the Rockies.

Atlanta enters play two games up on Philadelphia for the division lead, while Colorado is 11 games under .500, and has been reduced to playing the role of spoiler.

Braves vs Rockies Odds

Odds as of Sept. 2nd at DraftKings.

The Braves opened up as a -150 road favorite, and the game features a lofty total of 11, thanks to the thin Denver air.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 pm ET at Coors Field, with clear skies and 61 degree night time temperatures currently in the forecast.

This will be the Rockies first game back at home after a 10-game road trip, and there should be no shortage of offense in this contest. Nine of the past 10 games at Coors Field have produced at least 10 runs, and given who Colorado’s starting pitcher is, another double-digit run total appears likely.

Probable Pitchers

The Rockies will give the ball to Chi Chi Gonzalez, which has been a recipe for disaster lately. The 29-year-old has surrendered 17 runs in his past four starts, failing to make it past the 5th inning in each outing.

Toussaint vs Gonzalez

Gonzalez has posted a quality start in only 18.7% of his outings, and has been rocked by every active member of the Braves he’s ever faced. He’s allowed 10 hits in 25 at-bats (.400 avg) to current Atlanta hitters, including two homers.

He’s issued a hard hit rate of 44.3% this season, and when that happens at Coors Field, the ball is going to be repeatedly leaving the yard. Gonzalez has allowed at least one homer in nine straight starts, while his 5.25 career xFIP suggest he’s one of the most attackable starting pitchers in the entire league.

Soler Power ➕ MVFree@FreddieFreeman5 follows @solerpower12 to make it back-to-back homers for the @Braves. pic.twitter.com/olN1DgLJ9v

— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) August 31, 2021

Atlanta brings the NL’s third highest scoring lineup into Denver, and has hit the third most home run in all of baseball.

The Braves will counter with Touki Toussaint, who’s in the middle of the best season of his four year career. The 25-year-old has posted the lowest ERA and WHIP of his Atlanta tenure, but there are reasons to be concerned.

https://twitter.com/jgroc/status/1419368909866741766

Toussaint’s 4.22 xFIP indicates he’s probably been a bit fortunate on the mound this year, and his .240 BABIP would back that up. 36% of the hitters he’s facing are producing hard contact, and that kind of performance can get you exposed at Coors Field.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

The Rockies rank right around league average in runs per game, but boast severe home/road splits. They average over 2.5 runs more at home than on the road, and their slugging percentage balloons to .492 at Coors Field, compared to .335 on the road.

Braves vs Rockies Pick

Colorado’s offensive prowess at home isn’t surprising considering Coors Field is baseball’s most hitter friendly park. It makes sense as a result, that sportsbooks shade the totals on the high side, but that doesn’t seem to matter when Gonzalez is out there.

Eight of his past nine outings have produced totals of at least 12, while the opposing lineup has crossed the plate seven times or more in five of his past eight home starts.

*glass breaks*

BAH GAWD, THAT'S @austinriley1308's MUSIC!#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/H2U8zJ95kn

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) August 29, 2021

The Braves boast a lineup that appears ripe to tee off on Gonzalez, and the fun won’t end once he leaves the game. The Rockies bullpen ranks 27th in ERA and WAR, and boast the seventh worst strand rate.

Pick: Over 11 (-105)