Braves vs Mets Picks, Player Props & Betting Lines (Aug 14)

• A massive pitching mismatch is the main story, with Mets ace Kodai Senga facing the struggling Bryce Elder of the Braves
• The Mets have historically dominated Bryce Elder, especially key hitters like Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso
• See the Braves vs Mets picks, player props, and betting lines on Thursday night

The Atlanta Braves (52-68, 22-38 away, 52-60-7 O/U) visit the New York Mets (64-56, 39-22 home, 53-63-3 O/U) at Citi Field in Queens on Thursday night (7:10 pm ET) in the rubber match of a three-game series. The pitching matchup features a stark contrast, with New York’s Kodai Senga facing Atlanta’s Bryce Elder (4-9, 6.12 ERA).

Last night’s game was a wild affair, with the Braves overcoming a 6-0 deficit to stun the Mets (11-6). But sportsbooks don’t give Atlanta much chance of repeating that feat tonight against one of the NL’s best pitchers. This article will break down the Braves vs Mets odds, historical batter-vs-pitcher stats, and key player props, culminating with my best bets.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Odds

The Mets are significant -189 home favorites with the Braves coming back as +155 home underdogs in Thursday’s MLB odds. The vig-free implied probabilities give the Mets a 62.5% chance to win, compared to just 37.5% for the Braves. The total has been set at 9.0 runs, likely influenced by the 35 combined runs scored in the first two games of the series, though Senga’s presence makes the under an intriguing proposition.

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ATL vs NYM Odds Movement

The betting market has seen significant movement since the lines opened. The Mets opened as high as -215 favorites on the moneyline, but that line has since dropped to -189, indicating some respected money has come in on the underdog Braves.

The total has also shifted, opening at 8.5 runs and ticking up to 9.0. Thursday’s MLB public betting splits show a staggering 89% of bets are on the over, a classic public reaction to a high-scoring affair the night before.

This heavy lean on the over has forced oddsmakers to adjust the line, potentially creating value for bettors willing to fade the public and trust the ace on the mound.

The runline has also seen movement, with the Mets -1.5 opening at -105 and moving to a more attractive +110, offering better value for those who believe New York will win comfortably.

Batter vs Starting Pitcher History: Elder vs Senga

There isn’t much history between the Braves hitters and Senga, who came over from Japan in 2023 but missed almost the entirety of 2024 due to injury. What history does exist strongly favors the Mets ace.

ATL Career Statistics vs Kodai Senga

In 18 total at-bats, the current Braves lineup has managed just two hits (a single and a double) off of Senga with ten strikeouts and three walks. Marcell Ozuna has the only extra-base hit, but it was a timely one, driving in three runs.

NYM Career Statistics vs Bryce Elder

The Mets have had a lot more success against Elder in a larger sample size, piling up a .921 OPS in 48 at-bats. The heart of the New York lineup has done most of the damage, too: Juan Soto is 2-for-3 with a home run, Francisco Lindor is 4-for-7 with a home run and two doubles, and Pete Alonso is 3-for-8 with a home run and a double.

No other Mets have taken Elder deep yet.

Mets vs Braves Player Props

MLB player props represent consensus prices on Aug. 14.

There is significant value in the pitcher props, particularly with Bryce Elder. Given that the Mets lineup has tagged him for a .921 OPS in their careers, over 3.5 Earned Runs (+115) is a fantastic value play. Lindor, Soto, and Alonso have all taken him deep.

For Senga, his strikeout line is a low 4.5. While the Braves don’t strike out at an exceptionally high rate, Senga has dominated them, and the -161 odds on the over reflect his ability to mow down hitters.

Braves vs Mets Picks & Predictions

• New York Mets -1.5 (+110)
• Under 9.0 runs (-118)
• Bryce Elder over 3.5 earned runs (+115)

I have three picks I like for Thursday night’s game at Citi Field. The first is the Mets to cover the runline at +110 odds, the second is under 9.0 runs, which is a massive public fade, and the last is Elder to allow more than 3.5 earned runs, again at plus-money.

The foundation of this matchup is the chasm between the two starting pitchers. Senga has been a legitimate ace for the Mets, acting as a stopper after losses and consistently limiting opposing offenses. His 2.30 ERA and historical dominance over the current Braves roster (holding them to a .238 batting average, albeit in just 18 at-bats) provide a massive edge. He is exactly the pitcher the Mets need on the mound to halt any momentum Atlanta gained from last night’s comeback.

Conversely, Elder has been a liability for the Braves, sporting a 6.12 ERA and struggling mightily against this Mets lineup. Lindor owns an incredible 1.886 OPS against him, and Alonso has also found success. This isn’t just a statistical anomaly; it’s a pattern of dominance that heavily favors the Mets’ offense.

While the Braves’ 11-run outburst was impressive, it came against a shaky Mets bullpen and cannot be expected to repeat against Senga, especially with Ronald Acuña Jr and Austin Riley sidelined.

Several betting trends support a Mets victory. The Braves have been abysmal on the road as underdogs, going just 3-12 (.200) in their last 15 as ‘dogs. They’re also a dismal 1-8 (.111) in their last nine games following a win, suggesting a pattern of letdowns.

Despite the public heavily backing the over, the best value lies with the Mets covering the runline and Senga keeping the total down. The Mets have a prime opportunity to score early and often against Elder, while Senga should stifle a depleted Braves lineup.

The public is heavily backing the New York Mets on both the moneyline and run line, aligning with our prediction. However, the most significant public lean is on the over, with nearly 90% of all bets expecting a high-scoring game. This heavy public action on the over, likely a reaction to the previous night’s slugfest, creates a classic contrarian opportunity to bet the under, trusting that Senga will control the game.

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