Braves vs Reds Picks, Player Props & Betting Lines for MLB Speedway Classic

• The Reds host the Braves in a unique matchup at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday night
• Atlanta ace Spencer Strider faces Cincinnati’s Chase Burns in a battle of strikeouts savants
• Below, see the Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds picks, predictions, betting lines

The Cincinnati Reds (58-53, 43-63-5 O/U) and Atlanta Braves (46-63, 47-55-7 O/U) will square off at iconic Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN, at 7:15 pm ET on Saturday night in a rare neutral-site MLB game. The pitching matchup pits Cincinnati’s Chase Burns (0-3, 6.26 ERA) against Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (5-8, 3.71 ERA) in what will be the first MLB regular-season game ever played at the famed racetrack.

Cincinnati, fresh off a tight 3-2 victory over Atlanta on Friday, remains 3.5 games back of the final Wild Card berth in the NL. While the pitching matchup appears lopsided on paper, recent team dynamics tell a different story. The Reds have found a rhythm, winning six of their last nine contests thanks to clutch hitting and a stabilizing bullpen. Conversely, the Braves are dealing with significant injuries and have struggled to generate offense, dropping eight of their last ten games.

This article will break down the odds, analyze key player props, and provide a data-driven prediction for the 2025 “Speedway Classic”.

Jump to: Odds | Batter-vs-Pitcher Stats | Player Props | Picks

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines

The Braves are modest -126 favorites in Saturday’s MLB odds, largely due to the presence of Strider on the mound. The Reds come back as +104 underdogs. The vig-free implied probabilities give the Braves a 53.2% chance of winning, while the Reds hold a 46.8% chance. This narrow margin reflects Atlanta’s poor road record (20-37) and recent slump, creating potential value on the underdog Reds. The run total is sitting at 8.5 with the over favored at -119. Odds as of August 2, 2025 from DraftKings. Find the best MLB betting apps for this weekend’s busy slate.

Braves vs Reds Odds Movement

The betting market has seen significant movement since the lines opened. The Braves opened as -134 favorites, but that line has shortened to -126, indicating money coming in on the Reds. The most dramatic shift has occurred on the total, which opened at 8.0 runs and has since climbed to 8.5 with the juice heavily favoring the over at -119.

This upward movement on the total is likely driven by public betting patterns, as 71% of all run-total bets are on the over. However, the moneyline shift towards the Reds is more telling. Despite 63% of moneyline tickets backing the Braves, the line moved in Cincinnati’s favor. This is a classic case of reverse line movement, suggesting that larger, sharper wagers are being placed on the underdog Reds.

Batter vs Starting Pitcher Stats & H2H History

No active Atlanta Braves hitters have a career at-bat against Cincinnati starter Chase Burns, the second-overall pick in the 2024 draft. The former Tennessee Volunteer has made just six career appearances in the bigs.

Without any historical data, the matchup will come down to approach. Burns averages 98.2 mph on his four-seamer and has elite swing-and-miss stuff, racking up double-digit Ks in each of his last three starts, but he has struggled with command this season. The Braves lineup, while slumping, still possesses patient hitters who can work counts. They have had trouble with off-speed pitches recently, an area Burns will need to exploit to find success.

Cincinnati Reds Career Statistics vs Spencer Strider

Spencer Strider has dominated the current Reds hitters in a very small sample size, holding them to just two hits in 14 official at-bats. His high-octane fastball and wipeout slider have been effective, racking up six strikeouts in the process. Tyler Stephenson and Gavin Lux have the two hits, both singles.

Coming back from season-ending elbow surgery in 2024, Strider’s vFA is down considerably. He averaged at least 97.0 mph in each of his first three seasons, yet is sitting at just 95.8 mph this year. His K/9 rate of 10.66 is nothing to sneer at, but it’s still 1.44 lower than his previous career low.

Reds vs Braves Player Props

MLB player props as of August 3, 2025 from DraftKings.

For player props, Spencer Strider’s strikeout line of 7.5 seems attainable, even with his recent inconsistencies. The Reds’ lineup can be prone to strikeouts, and Strider remains one of the league’s elite strikeout artists.

On the other side, Chase Burns’ line of 7.5 is a tougher call. While the Braves offense is cold, they don’t strike out at an exceptionally high rate, making the Under (-150) an intriguing play for a rookie pitcher who has yet to demonstrate consistent command. But he’s flown over that number in each of his last three starts, hitting 10 Ks in each.

Reds vs Braves Picks & Prediction

The pitching matchup heavily favors the Braves on paper, but the underlying trends and situational factors point towards the Reds, and the young Burns is as talented as they come. The Braves’ offense is averaging just 3.2 RPG over its last ten games and sorely misses the presence of Ronald Acuña Jr.

On the other hand, the Reds are playing with confidence. Chase Burns has been hittable (6.26 ERA), but he faces a cold lineup. More importantly, the Reds’ offense has been clutch and their bullpen has been solid. The sharp money agrees, pushing the line toward Cincinnati despite heavy public backing for Atlanta.

Given the pitching matchup and the unique, spacious dimensions of Bristol Motor Speedway, runs could be at a premium.

Picks:

• Cincinnati Reds moneyline (+104)
• Under 8.5 runs (-102)
• Burns over 7.5 Ks (+115)