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Brewers vs Phillies Picks and Odds – Houser vs Moore

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in MLB Baseball

May 2, 2021 · 8:31 PM PDT

Christian Yelich Smacks a hit
Milwaukee Brewers' Christian Yelich watches after hitting a double against the Chicago Cubs during the fourth inning of a baseball game in Chicago, Wednesday, April 7, 2021. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers hit the road to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the first game of a four-game set Monday (May 3rd, 7:05 pm ET)
  • The pitching matchup features Adrian Houser for Milwaukee and Vince Velasquez for Philly
  • Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

The Milwaukee Brewers — coming off a 4-3 homestand that saw them take three of four games against the Los Angeles Dodgers — begin a seven-game road trip Monday in the City of Brotherly Love. The Brew Crew will take on the Phillies Monday in Philadelphia at 7:05 pm ET .

The four-game series begins with a pitching matchup between Adrian Houser and Matt Vince Velasquez.

Brewers vs Phillies Odds

Team Moneyline at FanDuel Runline Total
Milwaukee Brewers -108 -1.5 (+155) O 9 (-108)
Philadelphia Phillies -108 +1.5 (-188) U 9 (-112)

Odds as of May 2nd.

The Brewers were smoked 16-4 by the Dodgers Sunday as L.A. avoided a four-game sweep by Craig Counsell’s club. Milwaukee starting pitcher Alex Bettinger served as the team’s sacrificial lamb, giving up 11 runs (including a pair of grand slams) in his big league debut. But the thrill of capturing three tightly-contested ballgames against the defending World Series champs prior to Sunday’s blowout loss should give the Brewers confidence heading into Philly.

Meantime, Joe Girardi’s group lost two of three to the Mets after an epic bullpen implosion Sunday and enter Monday’s tilt with the same moneyline odds as the Brew Crew.

Another huge factor in Monday’s game — and moving forward for Milwaukee — is the expected return of two key cogs in its offense. Former MVP Christian Yelich hasn’t played since April 11 due to a lower back strain and Lorenzo Cain has been out since April 13 while recovering from a left quad strain. Vince Velasquez will make his third straight start after beginning the 2021 campaign in the bullpen.

Brewers’ Career Stats vs Velasquez

Lorenzo Cain 6 4 0 2 0 .667
Kolten Wong 3 1 1 1 0 .333
Christian Yelich 19 5 3 5 2 .263
Keston Hiura 1 0 0 0 1 .000

Return of the (Former 2x Hitting) King

The Brewers have actually fared quite well without Yelich in the lineup, sporting a 12-7 record in his absence. But the offense has certainly been affected. Milwaukee has scored 75 runs in those 19 games, a 4-run per game clip.

When you throw in the fact that Yelich has three home runs against Velasquez in 19 career at-bats against the Philly hurler, Milwaukee has a distinct advantage. Plus, if the Brewers also get Cain back — who owns a 4-for-6 mark against the 28-year-old,  Citizens Bank Park could be rocking for the away team. Another big factor could be Jacob Nottingham.

The 26-year-old catcher enters the series hot — hitting two homers Sunday after being reacquired from Seattle earlier in the day. The Mariners had claimed Nottingham off waivers from the Brewers last week. But the backstop is back on the Brewers and doing damage.

Phillies’ Career Stats vs Houser

Andrew McCuthen 1 0 0 0 0 .000
Rhys Hoskins 3 1 0 0 0 .333
Bryce Harper 1 0 0 0 1 000
JT Realmuto 1 0 0 0 0 .000

Yo, Adrian

Adrians typically do well in Philly — and judging by lineup history, Milwaukee’s starter is set up for success Monday. Yes, he’s only faced the first four hitters in Philadelphia’s projected lineup a combined six times — but only Rhys Hoskins has a hit against the 28-year-old.  The righty has yet to post a quality start over the his first five outings of 2021. But Houser has also worked into at least the fifth inning in every appearance and has yet to allow more than three runs in any of them. Plus, Milwaukee has won three of his four starts.

The Phillies got some encouraging news Sunday, with Bryce Harper getting his first start since being hit in the face Wednesday. Harper went 1-for-4 in the 8-7 loss. Meantime, Didi Gregorius had not played since he was hit in the ribs with a pitch on Wednesday. He delivered in a big way Sunday, launching a three-run home run in defeat. The Phillies also got J.T. Realmuto back in the lineup as well after missing the last two games with soreness in his left hand. The All-Star catcher went 0-for-4.

Ultimately, this one appears to favor the road team. I’m fading the Phillies in this spot.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-108)

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